“He has an accounting machine, he calculates everything. Now he knows the amount of water in Lake Baikal, and he divides it into a portion that was drunk per day ... He, as it were, participates in the management of the country, ” - Mikhail Zhvanetsky gave excellent advice that can be successfully used to predict the development of Russian science.
We make all the articles of the budget “To Science” for 2011 and we will receive about 163 billion rubles. We will mentally send all the money for the salary to young scientists and graduate students, who are 66 thousand and 154 thousand people, respectively2. Everyone will have about 740 thousand rubles, which, taking into account standard overhead costs of 15% and accruals for a salary fund of 34.2% will give a salary of 39 thousand rubles. per month. This is almost twice as high as the average in the country33, but lower than in Moscow4. Decent, but not very competitive at the world level.
Having considered everyone, we find out that in Russia there are 530 thousand people who should engage in science. If you share the “budget pie” equally at all, then the shares are too small, and it is impossible to conduct real scientific research for this money. The state compromises, divides the pie into unequal parts. The scientific community is divided along with it-the “prospective science” (recipients of “megagrators” and winners of competitions in the 218th resolution on the cooperation of science and industry), “Middle Class” (contractors of state contracts for various FCPs, recipients of Grants of the RFFIF and the President, the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, “Innovators” with the start) and “Scientific poor”.
The "promising group" appeared recently and in size is very small. The fundamental science in it will be represented by 80 new laboratories based on “megagrators”. 150 million rubles will be invested in each of them. for 3 years. Applied science - 112 large joint projects of universities and companies, in each of which the state is ready to invest up to 300 million rubles. With a similar business contribution. So far there is no information how many people enter each team - even 25 people. Then in this part of science there will be about 5 thousand people, less than 1% of all scientists.
"Middle class", like the usual middle class, is extremely heterogeneous. The recipients of ordinary Grants of the RFFIs make up the “lower middle class” with a budget of up to 500 thousand rubles. per year. Modern science is not made with that kind of money. According to state contracts in the framework of the FCP or in the competition, the start of money is more. The “recommended” team goes to 10-15 thousand per month per person. But the groups to improve the quality of the application are always more recommended, and the total amount multiplied by the price dumping is less than two times, comparing with the GRANTS of the RFFIF. Famous “Litors of the Ministry of Education and Science” and the “Officials” grants give more money, but not everyone can get it; These contests are "closed for outsiders."
Families participating in these projects receive the same 15 thousand rubles. per month. Representatives of the "middle class", combining the salary at the university with bonuses from grants, receive from 25 to 40 thousand rubles. per month, but graduate students are satisfied with 5-15 thousand rubles. Of course, there is a “highest middle class” that receives several different grants, sometimes including foreign ones. But salaries in the “highest average” are not so stable and guaranteed as in a “promising” class. We can safely assume that the entire middle class is distinguished by the presence of at least one Grant of the RFFIF, and since they covered “tens of thousands” of scientists5, then the middle class is 10-20% of all scientists.
Comparing with bibliometric indicators, we will see that just about 30 thousand articles are published by Russian scientists, which approximately corresponds to the size of the above estimates6. But everyone notes the worsening quality of articles. The middle class as a whole lives in “constrained” conditions. Existing grants do not provide normal, comfortable conditions. In response, the state and funds do not ask very hard, requiring the reports of articles in magazines from the “VAK list”, many of which can be safely considered “garbage”, not noticeable in the world and do not make any new contribution to science.
The "scientific poor" lives on one salary or works somewhere else, many teach, live tutoring. They spend less than half of working time on science7 and de facto are not scientists.
The calls radically change the situation constantly. Very correct documents are written and shown to the highest authorities. Changes are going on-FCP "Personnel", the growth of presidential grants, then megagrators, the 218th resolution. The middle class revived somewhat, but wants more. After all, in all programs there are a lot of flaws. The megagrators are too large, Grants of the RFFIF and FCP are too small, opaque and are not always distributed according to scientific criteria.

How will events develop further? Judging by the concept of innovative development until 2020, radical changes should not be expected. There will be no sharp increase in financing, there will be no mass dismissals and abbreviations, there can be only 20%. So, the division into classes will be in the near future. And the “details” come to the fore.
It is interesting to think about what, for example, will lead to the activity of “young scientists” aimed at improving the procedures with procurement and distribution of grants? 8 What will happen if the RFFIF is more efficient, how do many offer? What will the actions of the state, aimed at the allocation of the “promising group” of universities by issuing the statuses of “federal” and “national research”?
All requirements are essentially aimed at one thing - to remove artificial restrictions for strong groups. This is a decrease in the price factor, which reduces the dumping, allowing you to receive grants to strong teams. Obviously, this will lead to an increase in the average grant size and to a decrease in their number. Another requirement is to withdraw a restriction on one application from one organization for competitions on the FCP. The requirement is fair, because the application comes de facto from the team, and there are several of them in a large university in any area. This requirement is also on the hands of strong teams: an additional artificial restriction is removed.
The current leadership of the RFPI has repeatedly stated that instead of distributing funds from small grants, it is better to finance large projects. These ideas were perceived in the bayonets of the liberal part of the scientific community that is too familiar with how corruption the procedures for highlighting large grants are. Small initiative projects remained, but the large “Officials” grants still appeared, and they are several times more than ordinary grants. In addition, in 2009, when there were hopes for increasing the financing of grants, the winners were proposed to request an increase in financing, i.e. Instead of distributing additional grants, the size of existing should have grown. So, most likely, the number of Grants of the RFFIF will not grow further, the size will grow. Improving the procedures for the distribution of large grants “Officials” will only lead to the redistribution of their “own” to strong groups.
Where are these "strong groups"? Who will have more chances to win applications in an honest struggle? For example, these are Moscow State University, St. Petersburg State University, research and federal universities that will be equipped with equipment much better than the rest thanks to new state infusion. Yes, at first, gold budget rain is not consumed too efficiently, the funds reach only the selected groups. But, most likely, after all possible super -expensive toys will be purchased, the ranks of the excessive groups will expand.
New laboratories Megagratniki, large applied projects are also mainly located at these leading universities. In these groups - all conditions for growing new project managers who will be much easier to win new applications. Moreover, you cannot live on one grant, and more efficiently receive several, according to different programs. So new groups will be created around these groups.
It is worth adding that the state intends to provide further growth in science expenses exclusively at the expense of business. Up to 75% in the future should be extra -budgetary income. And to whom will the greedy and demanding business give money? That's right, strong teams!
An increase in the average grant with a decrease in their number, increasing the role of scientific criteria and budget pumping of selected universities - all this inevitably leads to the bureaucence of the "middle class", but also to bring it closer to the highest. The inequality in the scientific environment will grow rapidly. One group will be more and more reminiscent of the oprichnina, the second - an interview. How quickly and how the separation will grow sharply depends on the specific conditions of the new state program that replaces all separate FCP in the field of science after 2013, and on the continuation of the existence of the RFFI in its current form.
Such agreed actions can ultimately really change science. The main nucleus will stand out, which will include no more than 10% of all scientists-50-60 thousand people, who will become the “new Russian science”. If artificial restrictions on its development will be lifted, then this new science will be able to develop normally at the speed with which aggregate financing will increase - both state and private. This science will most likely be in the leading 50 universities and in some institutions.
Anton Konushin,
Researcher
Laboratory of computer graphics
and multimedia faculty of the ICMS of Moscow State University
1 http://blogs.strf.ru/blog/78.html
2 www.strf.ru/material.aspx?catalogid=222&d_no=36769
3 www.gazeta.ru/politics/2011/02/28_a_3540905.shtml
4 www.rian.ru/moscow/20101007/283205492.html
5 http://trv-science.ru/2009/04/14/ Problema-2010-li-chto-zhdet-rffi-i-rgnf-v-sleduyushhem-gudu/
6 http://blogs.strf.ru/blog/20.html