The "Bunny" jumped

How Belarusians experience devaluation

While Lukashenko judges his political opponents-they are threatened with 7-year-old camps-Belarusians have a chance to make sure on their own wallet: those who called for not vote for the president, who had been in power for 16 years, were possibly right. The Belarusian ruble collapsed by 30% and this is not the limit, prices rose as much. The author The New Times is reported from Minsk streets
On May 11, the National Bank of Belarus allowed commercial banks to establish a “market” national currency course. All market players immediately raised the price of the dollar from 3100 rubles to 4000. Earlier they could not do this: the regulator allowed the population to deviate from the official exchange rate by the population by no more than 2%. Why all banks

* * The Belarusian banking system includes 5 state and 7 commercial banks. Having received the “free”, they installed the same course, the source of The New Times explained the source in Belinvestbank: “It was only on paper that the National Bank insistently recommended not to raise the course above 4000.”

Between the two courses, the expansion of the exchangers became even longer. The correspondent of The New Times was convinced of his own experience: if earlier, to buy $ 200 at the Minsk railway station, it was necessary to stand for about two days, now the regulars say at least three: the author was witnessed, as the cash register almost beat a woman who tried to buy $ 100 without a queue. In one of the currency cash desks, Absolut Bank is ready to buy dollars for 3960 Belarusian rubles, sell 4000 each (the day before, May 10, the rate was 3110 and 3120, respectively). “There are no dollars available. The population does not sell. The National Bank canceled the restrictions, but they are not going to reinforce us with currency. We work with what will be brought, ”the operator explained.

Meanwhile, in the interbank market (where credit institutions exchange non -cash currency), which the regulator “released” more than a month ago, the rate is 5200–5500 rubles per $ 1. The National Bank has long encountered a currency deficit

* SM Read more The New Times No. 11 dated March 28, 2011. But he did not dare to touch the already scarving gold and foreign exchange reserves, inviting banks to buy currency for the sale of the population on the “Exchange and Over -time market”. As a result, such a difference of courses in exchangers and on the interbank arose. Naturally, banks buying dollars for 5.5 thousand local rubles does not shine for selling them to the population for 4 thousand. Therefore, there were no currencies in exchangers.

The time for panic why Belarusians do not believe any official statements of the authorities and wait even more devaluation of their ruble, it is easy to guess. Those, it seems, the further, the more they live in some parallel reality. So far, observers state that food prices have been growing at a speed of 10% per month for six months now, Belstat reports: since the beginning of the year, inflation was 11%. So far, experts say that in the country 1.5 million people (a third of the economically active population) have gone for forced leave, the Minister of Labor and Social Protection, Marianne Shchetykina, states that unemployment in the country has decreased. Yes, and Lukashenko himself did not make a single statement on the day the devaluation was announced: the television channels covered only the course of his visit to a certain village near Orsha. By the way, on May 11, Belarusian television did not show a single plot for the decision of the National Bank for the whole day. This is not necessary to be surprised: a week before the devaluation of the leaders of all state media (and Gosgazet alone in Belarus 400), they gathered in the government, where they urged to “refrain” from the coverage of economic problems in the country. But agitprop does not help: there is a panic on the streets of Belarusian cities. And not only in lines of exchangers. The food stores also have a crush. The national currency cheaper before our eyes makes people actively buy food - out of fear that tomorrow they will already cost more. On the evening of May 11, in order to refuel at the Minsk gas stations, it was necessary to stand in lines at least 4 hours - rumors about the next serious fuel rise in the country.

Then it will be worse that will happen with the course of the Belarusian ruble in the near future? “The currencies at the price of a dollar at the level of 4 thousand rubles in exchangers will still not be, and therefore the devaluation will continue,” the economist, the head of the analytical center “Strategy” Leonid Zaiko, is sure. His colleague Yevgeny Rugerman, coordinator of the Liberal Club of the youth discussion club, says that the dollar exchange rate will continue to grow, but gradually. This will happen until the banks “feel” of the real value of the Belarusian currency. In his opinion, the National Bank cannot now completely let go of the ruble: “In this case, the salaries of Belarusians will double, to the level of Moldavian in terms of dollars. And Moldova is considered the poorest country in Europe. ”

There is no way out

Minsk residents are waiting in line with exchangers for days

Devalvation is another desperate step of power aimed at stabilizing the economic situation in the country. Those measures that were used earlier - tightening of monetary policy, a ban on a number of import positions - did not help. The situation is close to the disaster: according to the results of the first quarter of 2011, the reserves of the National Bank decreased by 35%, and the negative balance of foreign trade set a new record - minus $ 2.4 billion (3.5 times more than in early 2010).

Standard & Poor's experts states: the country is growing in the country of bad loans, which the government previously issued state -owned enterprises on preferential terms. Lukashenko himself recently complained: the loans were "spent", the modernization of production was not carried out. The State Control Committee, the main punitive institution of the economy, has already undertook to check all the enterprises that received state support. The case smells of dozens of ships for the "squandering" of state reasons.

Against this background, Lukashenko has the only way to stabilize the situation - external loans. But here the prospects are doubtful. Before the elections at the end of 2010, the Belarusian president successfully played on the contradictions of the Russian Federation and the EU, managing to knock out saving loans from both of them. But after the head of the European Commission, Barrozo in the eyes of the Old Man became a “goat”, and in the head of the Ukrainian president Yanukovych he saw “Lyshe”, the Kremlin remained the last hope of Lukashenko. But while Moscow is in no hurry to help out the dad, as it happened before before.

The Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Kudrin said on May 11 that Belarus would not wait for any loans from the Russian government. Minsk, recall, asked Moscow for $ 3 billion. Kudrin claims that such money can be received only through the Eurasian Economic Community (EURSECE) and not immediately, but only by tranches until 2013. Instead of a loan, Kudrin offers the Belarusian authorities to begin the privatization process. Naturally, only Russian business is ready to buy Belarusian assets: their own authorities recommend not to meddle in the country of Lukashenko.

And Russian officials are more persistent about the need to introduce a Russian ruble in Belarus as a main payment fund. The first about the need to return to this issue was the Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Minsk Alexander Surikov. The Belarusian economist Vladimir Goncharik is sure: the Kremlin will not give Lukashenko in the form of a loan of a cent and will do everything possible to insist on his currency and buy the enterprise. Moscow, Goncharik claims, now has a unique chance to unscrew Lukashenko’s hands, and she will not miss him. The old man himself has nowhere to go: the country is threatened by default.

True, help from Russia can come from an unexpected side: the founder of MMM Sergey Mavrodi suggested that Lukashenko allow him to organize a financial pyramid in Belarus. In this case, he promises, those $ 12–14 billion that lie in the Belarusians “under the mattress” will again find themselves in the state, the economy will return to life, and inflation will be stopped. What it turns around for people is well known in Russia.