Pipe vicissitudes

The gasoline crisis, which erupted in a week ago (see the “mechanism -deficiency” ) was not only an external, but also an internal detonator. The external definator, about which everyone was well aware of the sharp increase in world values, oil caused by political events in Egypt and the war in Libya. This price of prices stimulated Russian oil companies to increase the supply of NACSport to the detriment of deliveries to the domestic market. The behavior of companies is quite consolidated - they wanted to earn more in the foreign fuel market, while it is overheated; But as a result, they created a crisis in the domestic fuel market.

At another time, the variability of supplies would go unnoticed, but now it coincided with the beginning of the field season and an increase in trips on personal vehicles. Therefore, the flashes of fuel on oil bases, without the required replenishment, quickly exhausted. And after them, fuel reserves at the gas station fuel were exhausted. Sellers (primarily independent gas station networks) began to increase price, which led to a crisis and a small political scandal.

According to the results of the scandal, measures of state coercion followed, but did not appear from this general picture of pre -crisis events. But after the Statistical Service published a report on industrial production in January-April of this year, it became clear that an equally significant internal factor was overlapped on the external factor of fuel.

As you can see, the isotchet of the state,

In April, just before the start of the crisis, the production of autobensin and diesel fuel was used in Russia.

Moreover, the reduction was quite decent, and really could have an impact on the inemic market: the production of gasoline fell by 13% with respect to March, and diesel fuel by 10%. Naturally, such a drop in production, in combination with the ranger of seasonal demand and with enhanced export supplies, could not use the crisis.

True, answering some questions, the statistical report raises new ones. One of the most common explanations of the Benzine crisis was that the lack of fuel was caused by stopping the current repair of oil refineries. Like, the plants will be repaired every spring, and therefore production has occurred. This version does not cause us, since it has existed for many years - exactly how many oil refineries themselves exist. And if once the inconsistency of the actions of manufacturers and consumers of oil products of plants and could lead to a shortage of fuel, then

After several crisis, both manufacturers and merchants probably guessed that it was nice to be good at seasonal reserves in anticipation of upcoming repairs and falling.

And it would be even more easy for them to accumulate these reserves, since the seasonal demand of demand is preceded by a “low” winter season.

Let us return to the issues with which the statistics of the statistical report. The fact is that if you look at all the numbers related to the oil complex, then their inconsistency simply rushes the undergraduate. As we noted above, the production of motor fuel decreased by 13% and 10%. Then it is natural to assume that supplies of oil at the refinery were reduced in the same proportion. However, for some reason, this was unprotiped-the supply of raw oil was reduced, but only by 4%.

As a possible miracle, it is not entirely clear.

Of course, it can be assumed that the production of light oil products was compensated by an increase in output oil products, that is, fuel oil. But here, statistics give a unambiguous way - its release was reduced by 6%. This, of course, is less than the abbreviations of light oil products, but, nevertheless, enough, since there are about 40% of the commodity output of the refineries.

But the reduction in the supply of rawneft at the refinery in a lower proportion than the reduction in the production of commodity products is not the whole picture of the events. A decrease in oil supplies in April 4.2%, and a reduction in oil production - 2.8%. That is, despite the reduced production, the oil workers had a reserve that they used to increase export supplies, although they could, of course, send for internal processing.

It remains only to assume that the ambassador oil was first aimed at the refineries, and then, due to the jump in world prices, it was pumped back to the main pipelines and redirected on export directions. But it is not yet possible to check this version, since the data of April will only be in a month after a month.

All in all,

If we want to live more less calmly and not put the economy of stress due to various kinds of external shocks, we will have to have a fairly large number of reserve capacities

(both for production, and processing, and on oil transportation), which are allowed to quickly increase production at the moments of demand jumps similar to the one that we are now observed.