Currency imbalance balance

Cruel currency crisis , which Belarus is experiencing now, should not cause much more excretion - sooner or later its economy should have been in this syntilization. The fact that the crisis has occurred now, and not a year or two later, is the all-low economic depression, which accelerated its approach. Moreover, if we consider the currency situation in all countries of the CIS, then sovereignty can be predicted that the case will not be limited to one Belarus. The crisis was in Kyrgyzstan last year, and a few more wandering are waiting for similar crises. You can even say that now there is a moment when it is already becoming clear, the economy of which country of the CIS “has the right to life” and which has no.

The criterion, on the basis of which you can make forecasts, is the state of the trade balance of these republics. In the situation in which they are located, the volume of exports should be large enough to pay the volumes of imports necessary for normal functioning of the civilians, and to accumulate foreign exchange reserves.

Hard dependence on export volumes and, accordingly, on the influx of solid foreign currency, is due to the fact that the entrepreneurs of these countries cannot produce a full set of goods and services that are part of the standard consumer basket. Therefore, for the normal functioning of the CIS economies, imports are necessary, which can be paid for the consideration of the constant flow of solid currency. If imported goods do not fit in the right size, then the volume of domestic consumption and volumetric production will be completely insufficient for normal production of the country's economy.

And if there are no international reserves, then the money in circulation will be insufficient for the implementation of produced goods and services, since national currencies are issued in internal monetary disposal when buying a foreign currency in reserves of monetary regulation bodies. In addition, the availability of foreign exchange reserves makes it possible to receive an aminomatic goods on credit, which is very important for countries with a low level of domestic saving. In this case, reserves are a kind of guarantee of payments of extracurricular transactions.

If you look at the trading balance of the CIS countries, it became clear in recent years, it becomes clear, who escaped forward and who is sliding the bottom. In the next table, we give data on the export, import and tradingsaldo of the leading countries over the past 10 years (we do not include Russia here, we analyzed the outskirts and we will analyze in other articles).

These four CIS states are obvious volators, and their situation is constantly improving - despite the global crisis.

But about other CIS countries, it is impossible to say that something is improving them. On the contrary, every year the situation is all the same and worse for them. In the next table, we give data on foreign trade countries.

There are enough flogging at these tables to make sure that it was good to “live” after the exit of the USSR is the not at all the countries that this could have suggested in the late 80s-the beginning of the 90s of the last century. Industrialized, possessing a good transport infrastructure, a developed system of secondary and higher education, located the most to the west of Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus, demonstrate very poor executors of foreign trade. And its deficiency is nyashynonic in nature. At the same time, some countries of the former Sovietovostok show very decent results - this also applies to purely surgery Turkmenistan, and more or less industrialized Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

It is possible to reason for a long time the reasons for such injustice, but the fact remains - the republics, which the least wanted to leave the USSR, ended up in the greatest excess after they became independent. Well, those republics that Izovsch of forces sought to leave the USSR turned out to be financially insolvent.

True, it is necessary to make several reservations about the solvency of the CIS countries. The active trade balance of Turkmenistan (which several years ago did not publish any statistical information at all) could be much more, if not a “single -channel” sales system of Turkmen gas. Our readers probably know that until the last time, this gas entered the world market only through the system of pipeline -Russian Gazprom, and the Russian gas corporation was well -gazed by the Nutourcmen transit. But now the situation has changed somewhat. To get tired of Russian counterparties, the Turkmen gas manufacturer began to sell new channels and quickly found them. This is, firstly, Iran, and secondly, China. And thirdly, on the horizon, the project of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline connected to the Nabukko gas pipeline is all over the horizon. In general, in the near future, Turkmenistan affairs should go uphill, and the republic’s trade balance will only improve.

Another reservation is Armenia. Although she has a chronic deficit in foreign trade, but this should not be misleading. The Armenian diaspora widely spreading to the departure stably finances its historical homeland, therefore, the republic will not have problems with external payments. On the Khudoykonets, there is an old ally and friend - Russia, which is never abandoned by trouble and will always be able to throw on credit several hundred million dollars.

Another reservation, a more general plan, is that trading deficits can be worn by a temporary hall; And until they break down, a country with a passive balance can apply external resources for its coating. But if the deficits are chronicle (and this is how things are about the auto-reaches), then the foreign service still will not save.

As for the three of our European powers - Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine - although each of them goes its own account, the final is approximately the same. If you consider the current laying in Belarus, and possible in the near future - in Moldova, then, in general, we can conclude that the no means of local politicians to compensate for the political lecture of the trade inbalance and created a crisis situation in them. If they could exchange political decisions for energy resources, then they might not have a crisis. But what happened, it happened, and how they will now be removed by these countries, which at one time promised their peoples prosperity, but gave a chronic crisis - it is not known.

The situation is more complicated with Ukraine. The fact is that the Saldo of her trade balance is also chronically passive, it is still impudent to the end, and this swelling will occur in the next year or two, after which the crisis can be exposed. But the currency and financial systems in the republic remains more or less stable due to the fact that the deposit of the balance sheet is covered with the help of a balance of balance of services. But the services that Ukrainian companies provide non -residents are well known - this, in ONOVNU, is the transit of Russian oil and gas according to the system of pipelines and sea ports. While the transit fee allows you to compensate for the liability of the trade balance, but soon this happiness will end. After the North Stream, the BTS-2 oil pipeline, the need for Ukrainian transit, will be sharply reduced (however, in the White-Russian and Polish, Ikak, then Ukraine will also be clear.

Thus, the currency crisis in Belarus is only the next swallow of the upcoming changes in the naval-financial and financial space of the CIS. Changes that will continue Landotech Por, until these states will be able to be necessary for the functioning of their economies of the advantage of export of Nadim.