The end of the era of the dollar?

World Bank sensational forecasts

The end of the era of the dollar? By 2025, six developing countries - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Russia - will summarize almost half of the volume of the world economy. And the dominance of the only currency - the dollar - will come to an end in international financial settlements, the World Bank has just been released. The New Times with the help of experts assessed the likelihood of forecasts over the next 15 years of the six most actively developing countries, according to the World Bank (WB), will demonstrate the average rate of economic growth by 4.7% annually, while the Great Seven state is only 2.3%. As a result, by 2025, the total share of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Russia (in the WB report, they are called “countries of new markets”) in the world gross domestic product (GDP) will grow from the current 36% to 45%. “The rapid growth of developing economies will lead to the shift of centers of economic growth and, as a result, really to the multipolar world,” he believes

The main economist of the World Bank Justin Ifu Lin. “The balance of world growth will shift to developing economies,” says one of the authors of the report,

Leading specialist VB Mansur Dylaila. As a result, investments will move to countries of new markets, the number of international mergers and acquisitions will grow, the world corporate landscape will change, in which “there will be no longer the dominance of current transnational corporations”.

True, the authors of the report are warned in order to maintain the rate of economic growth, the countries of the six will have to increase labor productivity and domestic consumer demand.

The currency triad but the most sensational part of the WB report is associated with the prediction of the end of the dollar era. The fact that the dollar will inevitably surrender its leading positions in the global foreign exchange system was claimed by many famous financiers (in particular, George Soros and Nuriel Rubini), especially in the midst of a recent crisis. However, for the first time a similar forecast is contained in the analytical document of the leading international financial organization (in addition, the World Bank headed by American Robert Zellik).

“The current dominance of the American dollar will end until 2025, a new monetary system will come, in which the dollar, euro and yuan will simultaneously act as a full -fledged international currency,” the report says. Moreover, the WB analysts call the euro the most reliable currency in this triad, but with one reservation: “The influence of the European currency will begin to grow if the euro is able to successfully overcome the crisis of sovereign debts, which has encountered several eurozone members and avoid the risks associated with financial assistance to weak countries within the EU.”

As for the yuan, “over the next decade, the volume of the PRC economy and the fast globalization of Chinese corporations and banks will increase the role of the yuan in the world economy,” the World Bank report says.

The threat of the status of the dollar as the main reserve currency by the yuan in the next 10-15 years is quite real, I agree

Arvind Subramanyan, expert of the Washington Institute of International Economics Peterson. This process can accelerate if the United States cannot limit budget and trade deficits

* * The US trade deficit in April 2011 reached $ 48.2 billion, a budget deficit for the year is expected, according to the IMF, $ 1.5 trillion, or 10.8% of GDP. , and the influx of funds in dollar assets by governments of other countries will be reduced.

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The current dominance of the American dollar will end until 2025, a new monetary system will come in which the dollar, euro and yuan will simultaneously act as a full international currency

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“I agree with the opinion of the experts of the World Bank,” said The New Times

Chief Economist Deuts of the Bank for Russia and the CIS Yaroslav Lisovolik. -I believe that it is hardly possible to talk about the monopoly of the dollar now, because the de facto world currency system is largely based on the euro, yen, and on some other currencies. In general, the multi -cream system will become a reflection of the weight of developing countries in the world economy, which will increase quite intensively over the next few next decades. ”

Unaccounted risks , however, are far from all the experts surveyed by The New Times, tend to unconditionally agree with the forecasts of the World Bank. “Yes, the American currency has been losing ground recently,” admits

Director of the CMEI "BDO Unicon" Elena Matrosova. - But in order to really replace the dollar, a market of financial instruments of a huge scale in the currency of new leaders is needed. In the meantime, about 80% of all settlements in international trade are carried out in dollars, and no one shake this figure even in a crisis. ”

“The previous 15 years of China’s economy was accompanied by success,” says

The chief economist of the Rus Capital Criminal Code Alexei Logvin, but in the next 15 years, it is quite possible that the PRC authorities will have to encounter the bubbles in different domestic markets, as well as with social protests of the population about low salaries and an almost complete lack of pensions. ”

It is pleasant that Russia is considered by the World Bank as one of the world growth points in the 15-year perspective, considers

The chief economist of the Three Dialogue Evgeny Gavrilenkov. However, today, under a big question, even planned by the Government for 2011, GDP growth rate is 4.2%. The expert sees the main reason for this in the “Problems of the Institutional Environment, which will not work out quickly”: the dominance of the bureaucracy, a high level of corruption, political uncertainty, scaring off investors.

I agree with this and

Eric Berglof, chief economist of the EBRD: "Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve the declared goals for GDP growth in the coming years." Berglof appeals to the figures of the outflow of capital from the country: in April, according to the Central Bank, it amounted to $ 7.8 billion, and according to the results of the first quarter of 2011 - $ 21.3 billion. Meanwhile, the chief economist of the EBRD believes, the flight of capital is not only a diagnosis of the current state of the economy, but also the sentence for the future growth: there is no development without investment.

In any case, 15 years is too long to build accurate forecasts, experts agree. “The world economic system that has developed over many decades will experience the transformation in the coming years, but not the fact that the result will turn out the way it is predicted by the World Bank,” says Evgeny Gavrilenkov. “Of course, the WB does not take its figures from the ceiling: it bases its forecasts on the extrapolation of the economic data that its analysts have,” adds Elena Matrosova. “But of course, wars, climatic disasters, a change of power in certain countries, which no prognosis can calculate, will certainly be affected by the economic situation in the world.”