Moscow is making offers to the West that it will be difficult not to refuse

As Kommersant found out, the agreement promoted by the Russian Federation with the United States and NATO on the non-direction of the European missile defense system against Russia implies restrictions on US missile defense systems. To prove this “non-directionality,” there should not be many American anti-missiles, they should not fly fast and be in places where they cannot reach Russian ballistic missiles. The chances that the West will agree with this are close to zero. But the Kremlin does not lose hope. The President of the Russian Federation has vested his special representative for interaction with NATO on missile defense issues, Dmitry Rogozin, with additional powers: he has been given carte blanche for direct negotiations with the leaders of the alliance countries to clarify Moscow’s position.

On Wednesday, Brussels will host a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council at the level of defense ministers, at which Anatoly Serdyukov will try to convince his alliance colleagues to accept the Russian proposal to sign a legally binding agreement on the non-direction of the European missile defense system against the Russian Federation. The preparations for this meeting were carried out by Moscow with special care. From last Tuesday until Saturday, a Russian delegation led by Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov was constantly in the Belgian capital. In addition to negotiations with NATO officials, Mr. Antonov spoke in Brussels with Senior Deputy Secretary of Defense James Miller. The topic of numerous meetings was the same - possible cooperation between Russia and the West in the field of missile defense. But, as one of the Russian negotiators admitted to Kommersant, “it was not possible to move or achieve breakthroughs.”

Nevertheless, Mr. Serdyukov will visit Brussels to fulfill the president’s instructions and convey the Russian position to the NATO military. Its essence is that Moscow is ready to agree to the appearance of an American missile defense system in Europe on certain conditions, which should be enshrined in the treaty.

“The situation has changed very much. If earlier with regard to missile defense we said: no, no and no again, today we say: yes, but under certain conditions,” Deputy Minister Antonov explained to Kommersant. “Western partners must take into account Russian concerns , and not only take into account, but remove our concerns that this system is directed against us. Only in this case are we ready to interact.”

"The response will be comprehensive"

Moscow believes that only a legally binding agreement can serve as a firm guarantee. Moreover, in it the details of the future missile defense system in Europe should be agreed upon with Russia. These include the permissible number and types of interceptor missiles, their speed, and the locations of missiles and radars. “The question is simple: what is this missile defense system for? We are told that there is a threat of proliferation of missiles. Which ones? Medium and short range. Well, this class of missiles requires certain capabilities. That is, the speed of the interceptor missile should not be the same high with which an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can be intercepted,” explains Anatoly Antonov. “It is clear that the speed of short- and medium-range missiles is lower than that of an ICBM. This means that the speed of interceptors should be limited, for example, 3.5 km.” sec. Accordingly, they should be located in certain places: along the trajectory of short- and medium-range missiles."

In which European countries Moscow considers the appearance of anti-missile defenses harmless, the deputy minister did not specify. Military experts indicate where they definitely shouldn’t be. “This is definitely not Poland. Romania, Turkey, Bulgaria - yes, but by no means Poland,” says Konstantin Makienko, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “Now it seems that the topic of the appearance of interceptor missiles in Poland is irrelevant, but it could arise in any moment".

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov
Photo: Dmitry Azarov, Kommersant

According to Moscow’s plan, the treaty should stipulate in no less detail the permissible number of American interceptor missiles in Europe, as well as the capabilities and locations of radar stations, which should be as far as possible from Russian borders. “When, under the pretext of a threat from the Middle East, they create a layered missile defense system with the ability to use up to 1,000 interceptor missiles, it’s a no brainer who it’s against,” Russian Permanent Representative to NATO Dmitry Rogozin, who is also the Russian President’s special representative for interaction with the missile defense alliance, told Kommersant. We ask the Americans: how many missiles do you need so that you can sleep peacefully? Let’s write this down. Okay, let’s put it on paper. “The answer is silence.”

As for the radars, according to Mr. Rogozin, they should be where there is a threat from short- and medium-range missiles: “Why do we need a radar in the Czech Republic? Any radar looking towards Russia is a reason for legitimate counteraction.”

Among other things, Moscow would like to provide in the agreement a clear procedure for verifying all agreed upon criteria. And this, together with all of the above, is only a small part of what should be spelled out in the document. In any case, Mr. Antonov, who worked on the preparation of the new Russian-American Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), signed in April 2010, says that preparing an agreement on missile defense may turn out to be a much more labor-intensive process than developing agreements on START.

But this is only the case if the West decides to provide the guarantees required by Russia. So far, Washington and Brussels have shown no desire to listen to Russian initiatives. In the case of the United States, which has the final say on this issue, the reluctance to discuss the treaty is explained by a persistent allergy to any restrictions in the area of missile defense. After the Americans withdrew from the 1972 treaty ten years ago, they had the opportunity to freely cover themselves and their allies by creating a European missile defense system. And no American administration will deprive itself of this opportunity. In addition, Barack Obama is unlikely to risk raising this issue given the approaching presidential elections in the United States.

What Moscow and Washington can even agree on in the area of missile defense under such conditions is a mystery even to experienced negotiators. “For us, this is one of the most confusing diplomatic tasks,” admitted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in a conversation with Kommersant. And yet the Kremlin intends to try to solve it.

Last Friday, Dmitry Medvedev received Dmitry Rogozin and, as the Kremlin press service reported, gave him “a number of instructions based on the results of his contacts and discussions during the G8 summit in Deauville.” This, as Kommersant found out, is about a significant expansion of the powers of Mr. Rogozin as the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation - he has been given carte blanche for direct negotiations with the leaders of Western countries to convey Moscow’s position to them. “The President authorized me to conduct a series of consultations with the political leadership of our partner countries in order to clarify our approaches (on the missile defense issue . - Kommersant ),” Dmitry Rogozin, whose schedule in connection with the presidential assignment will now be very busy, confirmed to Kommersant. This month the diplomat will visit France and the UK, in July - the USA, and in the future - Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.

Vladimir Soloviev

Evidence from missile defense