Someone else's game for our money

June 15 is the 10th anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This was probably the first attempt to unite Russia and China under one geopolitical umbrella with the Central Asian countries that joined them and Iran as an observer. "With God blessing!" - Said in Russian for everyone to understand, at a reception in honor of the founding of the organization, the then Chinese leader Jiang Zemin and sipped a glass of champagne.

To whom was this signal sent in the first place? It has never been openly discussed, but the implication is, in principle, clear: America. The SCO is a logical alliance, on the one hand: neither Russia nor China wants excessive US presence and influence in the Eurasian space. On the other hand, it is paradoxical: Moscow and Beijing have their own palette of relations with Washington, and Beijing has a richer one. And all three have a colossal common interest - the fight against terrorism and extremism. Secondly, the signal was sent to the separatists of all stripes: after all, it is easier to defeat them together than one by one.

The official budget of the SCO is about $4 million (120 million in rubles). The share participation of Russia and China in its financing is 24% each. But at the same time, in 2007, Moscow spent 2 billion rubles on joint military exercises alone. And for holding the year before last summit in Yekaterinburg - 1 billion. As it was said, from "alternative sources", which can only be the Russian budget or Russian business once again placed in a certain position. And who turned out to be in the real plus from participating in the alliance?

„

China has found in the SCO an additional regional channel for self-assertion as the economic center of the world instead of the United States

”

China independently found recipes for suppressing pockets of separatism in its Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, after which Beijing's interest in this problem weakened. Over the years, it became clear that a strategic alliance would not work either. The common interests of Russia and China (as well as the level of mutual trust) were not strong enough to transform the SCO into a military bloc: joint demonstration exercises at the Chebarkul training grounds (Chelyabinsk region of the Russian Federation) in 2007 and Matybulak (Kazakhstan) in 2010 are clearly not can be considered preparatory steps for such a block. And in general, the most open questions of the SCO member countries preferred to be resolved on a bilateral basis.

But in recent years, completely different factors have begun to play an increasingly important role within the framework of the SCO, which initially were not even considered as a subject of cooperation. Using the status of an official partner, Beijing began "peaceful expansion" to the countries of Central Asia. For example, “two more Confucius centers” will soon open in Kazakhstan, in addition to the two previously opened. According to some estimates, up to 30% of all oil produced in the republic belongs to Chinese companies. China has already become one of the main trading partners for almost all states in the region - over the past 8 years, Beijing's trade with the Central Asian countries has increased almost 10 times. The Chinese are increasingly influencing university education in the Central Asian states, where the number of Chinese learners has increased dramatically. The list goes on. Moscow does not like this at all, but it is not yet in a position to oppose anything to Beijing: Russia's real influence in Central Asia is weakening every year.

China has not only established itself as the central country of the SCO, but also found in this organization an additional regional channel for self-assertion as the economic center of the world instead of the United States. It is quite obvious that modern Russia is not in a position to claim such a role.

What's next? The SCO will not die, primarily because China needs the organization. Its development will be based on the traditional Chinese strategy - not to rush anywhere, but to act slowly but surely. But only Russia has a completely different situation. She needs to hurry...