Election structures like the “All-Russian Popular Front” are often created because the existing government fears for its future. “Vlast” asked experts what reasons the Prime Minister might have for fear.

Dmitry Oreshkin, political scientist:

Putin fears that his political and economic strategies are reaching a dead end. The elite realized this five to seven years ago, and now the people also realize it. The strengthening of the Popular Front against this background looks like an attempt to exterminate any political competition. It is made clear to those who conduct elections and count votes that we have only one party - United Russia, since this is the electoral facet of the Popular Front. The upcoming parliamentary elections will be more scandalous than all previous ones, because the popularity of United Russia is going down, and the result should be no worse than before. Therefore, there will be even more falsifications. Of course, this is a poor idea - to revive an indestructible bloc of communists and non-party people. A mobilization idea that hopes to be able to participate in elections without political discussion. Putin doesn’t know how to hold a political discussion; he never allowed himself to do that. And with whom should the Popular Front discuss? Only with individual enemies of the people. There can be only one reaction here: whoever is not with us is against us. They will get the number they need, but people will eventually realize that they have been cheated again. And the party in power will have problems.

Gleb Pavlovsky, head of the Effective Policy Foundation:

Gleb Pavlovsky
Photo: Valery Levitin, Kommersant

It is difficult to control an aimless populist movement that scatters in different directions like a herd. During the existence of the Popular Front, its organizational foundations were revised three times. This is a kind of record. The word “front” itself is absent from the legislation, which means that nothing that the prime minister will allow is prohibited. Like any populist movement, it develops fascist tendencies. How can NGOs, individuals and businesses be part of one movement? All this looks like the Order of the Swordsmen, a party within a party, where people will consider themselves above the authorities, and at the beginning, at the financial lands, there will be those who stood at the end of the line and, perhaps, were there due to their incompetence. Putin wants to strengthen himself and does not want to bear responsibility for his previous concepts. He will not forget about the Popular Front after the elections, but he will have to move along the path of full-fledged populist politics. Although everything depends on who becomes president, because Medvedev’s program is physically incompatible with the Popular Front.

Evgeniy Suchkov, director of the Institute of Electoral Technologies:

Putin fears that a decline in United Russia's rating could lead to a decline in his own rating. The decline in the rating of the party in power was evident in the regional elections in March, and was also confirmed by nationwide polls. In order to avoid losing his own rating, Putin creates the “People's Front”. This is a new public organization, not burdened by the obligations of United Russia to be responsible for everything. And in this sense, she cannot pull down Vladimir Vladimirovich’s rating. Well, he also needs this for a serious victory in the elections in December, and perhaps for a successful performance in March 2012. This is completely normal political technology.

Stanislav Belkovsky, President of the Institute of National Strategy:

Stanislav Belkovsky
Photo: Ilya Pitalev, Kommersant

Of course, Putin fears for United Russia. If the party in power does not receive a constitutional majority, it will be a colossal humiliation for Putin. And he is very afraid of this humiliation. Now the real rating of United Russia is 25-30%, and in order to secure a constitutional majority in the State Duma, United Russia must receive at least 55-60% of the votes. Of course, administrative resources will play a huge role in this, as well as a “correct” vote counting system, but still this may not be enough. That is why titanic efforts are being made to shift the focus of the voter’s attention from the discredited and rapidly losing popularity of the United Russia brand to the less discredited ones - the old Putin brand and the new All-Russian Popular Front. That is, all this fuss and hype around the Popular Front is connected with Putin’s fear of the defeat of United Russia in the elections.

Georgy Satarov, President of the Indem Foundation:

Georgy Satarov (left)
Photo: Daniil Ivanov, Kommersant

The Popular Front was created by Putin out of fear of losing power. And in this case, the current government has one instinct - the instinct of gangster mutual responsibility: to tie up as many people as possible. Moreover, such mutual responsibility is now called stability. When you understand this, nothing amazes you anymore—neither the massive drive of enterprises into the ONF, nor the online acceptance of members of this gang, nor even more so the threatening and unequivocal words of their representatives addressed to entrepreneurs. Such conduct of affairs is quite in line with them. You can't expect anything else from them.

What is Putin afraid of?