Translated material
20 years since the collapse of Yugoslavia
Before the conflict of the nineties, the Yugoslav peoples lived better than the rest of the peoples of the socialist bloc. For those who lived in the USSR, Yugoslavia was an example of relative freedom and prosperity. Then everything changed diametrically. And how now, 20 years later, the former Yugoslav republics are developing, now independent states? Tells Aiya Kuga.
Aiya Kuga: How many Yugoslav republics lost economically as a result of the collapse of Yugoslavia? How many citizens lost them? The wars in the Yugoslav territory brought people huge suffering, and most citizens, it seems, now, ten or more years after the end of conflicts, live much worse than before. We are talking about Serbia’s economic relations with its neighbors with one of the leading Serbian economic observers, the editor -in -chief of the journal "Economist" Milan Chulibrk, the journal "Economist" in Belgrade.
How much did the economy and, in particular, the industry of new states have lost due to the collapse of Yugoslavia?
Milan Chulibrk: Everything that happened after the collapse caused great damage to everyone in the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, but it seems to me that most of all - it was Serbia. Indeed, for her, the collapse of the common country was accompanied by international sanctions and bombing of NATO. The direct and indirect material damage that Serbia suffered is, according to some estimates, more than one hundred billion euros. This figure also includes a lost gross internal product, which could be sold if the situation was different. If we compare: today the industrial production of Serbia has not reached even half of the 1990 production. At the end of the war and conflicts, almost all the other former Yugoslav republics increased their gross domestic product, the product per capita, industrial production and all other macroeconomic indicators, and Serbia does not even have what had been 20 years ago. This price was paid both for the collapse of Yugoslavia and the lost common market and for erroneous state policy.
Aya Kuga: Yes, with the collapse of Yugoslavia, a common market with a population of 22 million fell apart, but a lot of money in Serbia went to finance wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Kosovo. There are no official data on this subject, but in Serbian society it is believed that great damage to the country's economy caused NATO bombing in 1999 and that this is one of the main reasons for universal impulation.
Milan Chulibrk: Of course, bombing can also be attributed to the reasons for impoverishment. However, the key problem of Serbia is that during the 90s the country has lost a whole decade for its development. In 1993, terrible hyperinflation occurred when, within one month, prices increased by 312 million percent. At the annual level, this inflation can not even be expressed in numbers. These are not the consequences of NATO bombing. This is the result of a bad economic policy, which was carried out by the regime of Slobodan Milosevich. I remember there was a moment when 75% of the budget was provided that the government simply printed banknotes - without any coating. This could not be left without consequences. However, even after the fall of Milosevich, the reform in Serbia was carried out slowly, and in some areas they have not yet begun.
Aya Kuga: Can you imagine what Yugoslavia would look like if the separatism of the leaders of its peoples were not stronger than economic logic?
Milan Chulibrk: If there had not been a collapse of Yugoslavia, it would most likely be in the early 90s became a new member of the European Union. When the country's prime minister was Ante Markovich, federal Yugoslavia from all countries of the central, southern and southeastern Europe had the best relations with the European community (as the EU was called then). The state was literally a couple of steps from the status of a candidate members of this organization. Maybe partially and Europe is to blame for what happened to Yugoslavia. If the Government of the liberal reformer Ante Markovich then received firm guarantees and more support of Europe, perhaps there would be no war, and Yugoslavia escaped a tragic fate, and citizens of its republics would have long been better than now. The high price was paid for the policy that prevailed in all Yugoslav republics-their leaders dealt with some national issues, and not by the economy, which ultimately brought to the war.
Aya Kuga: Let me remind you, we are talking with the Belgrade economic observer Milan Chulibrk.
Over the past ten years, after the fall of the Milosevich regime, billions of dollars joined Serbia - foreign irretrievable assistance, direct investment, loans. According to forecasts, when Serbia reaches the economic level that it had before the collapse of Yugoslavia?
Milan Chulibrk: According to some forecasts, I will say, the most optimistic - this will not happen earlier than 7-8 years later. If we take into account how deep it was to fall in the gross domestic product and the standard of living of the population, it can be understood that now in Serbia it lives much worse than in the late 80s. In those days, before the collapse of Yugoslavia, the average wage was higher than 1000 German brands. The course is 500 euros, but it is really much more than 500 euros. Now we have an average salary of about 300 euros, and this money cannot be survived normally. If you talk with ordinary people, then everyone will say that the years before the war, the end of the 80s, were “old and good” times. True, then there were economic problems - both in Yugoslavia and in Serbia. Yugoslavia had a huge external debt, the state lived on credit, and loans were not paid. Then, when the crisis began, all this had to be paid. At that moment, mutual disputes between the Yugoslav republics began on the subject of the one who exploits whom. One of the most prominent economists of the former Yugoslavia, a professor from Slovenia Yozhe Menziger believes that during the current crisis in the European Union, similar trends in mutual accusations also appear. The first Yugoslav economic crisis in the early 80s ended in the fact that the country announced that he was not able to pay external debt, and the conditions of these loans were revised.
Aya Kuga: The external duty of Serbia is about 23 (twenty -three) billions of euros, however, it is reported that the country is successfully coping with him, and it is supposedly not threatened to bankruptcy. But the standard of living falls.
Milan Chulibrk: Today, in all new states that arose on the territory of the former Yugoslavia, with the exception of Slovenia, and partially Croatia, the quality of life of citizens is much worse than 20 years ago. But the expectations were real that the standard of living would increase every year. It was really that this was expected before 2008, before the start of the global economic crisis, which touched on all countries. However, those 17-18 years before the crisis, Serbia could use for economic progress. At a time, when an average of 4-5% per year was marked in the world, and even 7-8% in the transitional periods, Serbia experienced stagnation and even regression. Previously, the standard of living in Serbia was much higher than in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, not to mention Bulgaria and Romania, and now we have salaries - one of the lowest in Europe. Only in Albania from the entire region the average salary is lower. But in Serbia, over the past two years, it has decreased by 30%, and in Albania it is growing and this is the question of the day when Albania will overtake us.
Aya Kuga: The general Yugoslav market is gradually being restored. In order not to mention for many the traumatic word "Yugoslavia", some call the renewal of these ties by the creation of a new socio-economic phenomenon: "Southosphere". The regional zone of free trade in the CCTA is quite successfully operating, general industrial projects appear, large joint firms are being created. How much does politics affect economic relations in the former Yugoslavia today?
Milan Chulibrk: pretty much. Over the past few years, both political and economic relations in the region have warmed. For example, economic cooperation has increased between Serbia and Croatia - following the establishment of close relations between the presidents of Serbia and Croatia. In the previous period, it was the policy that was a limiting and destructive factor in economic relations. Now that the political relations between the states formed in the territory of the former Yugoslavia are mainly normalized, trade and joint projects in different fields of industry are expanding. Serbia has trade relations with all the former Yugoslav republics, and only with them, from all states of the world, it has a positive trade balance - it is most successful with Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and even Kosovo. The surplus of Serbia's foreign trade with them is about a billion euros. This is a certain evidence of the fact that we were all and remained very attached to each other and have a similar market. Serbian brands are still known since the general state, and they are much better accepted in the region than in the European Union market, with which, by the way, Serbia has the largest trade. However, the problem is that we import from the EU much more than export there. Therefore, the development of economic relations with the countries of their region is a recipe for how to raise the quality of their goods, so that they are prepared for the European market.
Aya Kuga: We talked with one of the leading Serbian economic observers, the editor -in -chief of the journal "Economist" by Milan Chulibrk.