Anti -crisis recipe

The ongoing fluctuations in the stock markets, whether we want this or not, force us to believe that the current decline in the world economy is actually very similar to the great depression of 1929-1933. Although, of course, according to a number of basic indicators, such as the industrial production index and the unemployment rate, the current crisis does not reach the “great”, but in terms of duration it will very soon be equal to its analogue.

Then the government bodies of developed countries, primarily the United States, did almost nothing to help the depressive financial and real sectors of the economy. The authorities were connected on the hands and feet of the dogma about the balanced budget and therefore could not expand its deficit to remove excessive supplies from the market and at the same time give the manufacturers the opportunity to pay for debts. Now the situation is completely different: state authorities are actively expanding their presence in commodity and partly stock markets, and do not allow them to fall into the abyss. However, this state intervention, as we now see, only supports the economic situation at a stable relatively low level, but does not give household agents the opportunity to restore the pre -crisis volumes of production and income and, moreover, makes it possible to develop further.

That is, we can conclude that the power of state authorities is not unlimited, although in their actions they are practically free and can expand their presence in the markets without special restrictions. And even the clash of the US President with Congress due to the maximum amount of public debt, which we have recently been witnessed, can be considered as an annoying incident, which is more an episode of the domestic political struggle, rather than a serious restriction of the government’s ability to change the state budget, depending on the current economic situation.

But is it only a limited effectiveness of anti -crisis programs of the governments of developed countries prevents the global economy from a crisis? It seems that in this situation, not only state authorities are “to blame”, but also those economic agents who, it would seem, should benefit from government events most. We are talking about industrial companies of the so -called non -financial sector of the economy. At the same time, we do not mean companies that suffered big losses because of their risky policy in the pre-crisis period, and on the salvation of which the government spent a lot of money. No, we are talking about those companies that calmly survived the most difficult moments of the crisis without any state support and continue to develop their business despite the general economic depression.

It is precisely these companies to their financial policy (we emphasize, corporate financial policy) do not allow worldwide and local farms to recover from the crisis and with all their might block the positive effect of the anti -crisis programs of the governments of developed countries.

Although this kind of statement sounds, of course, too original - corporations prevent the governments from breeding the economy from the crisis - but there are facts that confirm that such statements are not without reason.

As evidenced by the data of the quarterly reports of the largest non -financial corporations included in the Standard & Poor`s 500 (Vedomosti ”index of 08/12/11), companies increase money reserves instead of purchasing goods and services for them, or investing them in other companies. So, by mid -2011, the total amount of money accumulated and their equivalents reached $ 1.2 trillion, increasing by almost $ 400 billion compared to the level of 3 quarter of 2008. Among the record holders are high -tech Microsoft and Google, which have accumulated $ 53 billion and $ 39 billion, respectively, and among the participants in the second echelon - the mass of other companies and firms both high -tech and traditional, although inferior to leaders in terms of revolutions, but completely copying their financial policy.

United efforts, these large and medium -sized companies have created such a financial traffic jam that reliably clogs all the blood vessels of the world economy. And the negative effect of this traffic jam is so strong that it almost completely blocks the positive effect of the activities of the governments of developed countries. The central banks and governments of these countries can continue to increase monetary issuance, however, it will be small from this, since almost all of these additional funds will settle in the accounts of non -financial corporations, and their stimulating effect will be reduced to zero.

How do representatives of the leading companies explain their sluggish investment and expense behavior? According to representatives of some companies, now you have to be very careful with expenses, since the general situation in the economy has not yet been determined: additional expenses may be unnecessary if the demand does not suddenly grow. According to others, it is now more important to maintain capital than to risk it, trying to get a higher profitability. According to the third, due to instability of financial markets, interest rates may increase in the near future, which means that it is necessary to keep funds free in order to shift into more profitable tools at the right time.

One of the side results of such passive behavior is the failure in the placement of securities of many companies on global stock exchanges. The volume of delayed placements for the first half of 2011 amounted to $ 42 billion. Most likely, it will continue to grow. Investors who have money do not want to invest them, fearing the unpredictability of stock markets, so the issuers will have to cut their production programs, which, of course, will not contribute to the revival of the economy.

Thus,

No special recipes are required to withdraw the global economy from the crisis. Moreover, this exit from the crisis can begin right now - it is worth only one or more large companies to start spending the funds they have accumulated.

Then the additional demand, stimulated by these expenses, transmitted through the production and consumer chains, will quickly cause growth in production, income and employment around the world. And this growth in production will be much larger - in two, in three, and maybe four times than the growth of initial additional demand. In another way, additional monetary demand is $ 1 trillion. will cause an increase in production and income of $ 2 trillion, $ 3 trillion. or $ 4 trillion. And then it will be possible to forget about the crisis and about state anti -crisis programs.

But how can you force the owners of private corporations to spend their money if they do not want it? If Microsoft and Google corporations were registered in the Russian Federation, then in our historical conditions a very specific answer would be given to this question. The leaders of these corporations would simply promise to send doctors (in white robes) so that representatives of the most humane profession help to quickly explain the economic benefits of large expenses during economic depression with capitalist sharks. And, most likely, the heads of corporations would have heeded the arguments of medical workers, and would expand corporate expenses.

But such an impact is possible only in the conditions of a transitional Russian economy. But what to do in the US economy? Apparently, we only have to sit and wait for the leaders of large corporations to wake up on their own and will act. Wait and console yourself with the words of the thirty -first US president Herbert Hoover, whose cadence was great depression: prosperity - around the corner.