Golden account

Pure gold bubble. The collapse of the quotes and panic of investors marked exchange trading around the world on August 18–19. Against this background, only one market position remains unshakable - gold that broke a new price record. Is it worth it to continue to invest in a stainless asset - I found out The New Times
As investors lose confidence in currencies, shares and bonds, gold is getting more expensive, and for many months in a row. It was a record on August 18 - the price for the Troika Ration (31.1 g) on ​​world exchanges amounted to $ 1826.6. Most likely, this is not the limit: gold futures with delivery in December at the New York Exchange have been trading over $ 1850. Experts drew attention: each negative world economic news seems to give a gold of strength. It was worth the heads of Germany and France to abandon the placement of Eurobonds, designed to improve the situation with the debts of the European Union, as Dragmental immediately went up by 1.5%. After a decrease in the US credit rating (see The New Times No. 25 of August 15, 2011) and, accordingly, investors, it seems, do not see any other “island of stability”, except for gold to American government bonds (Bonds).
Stainless asset

Gold is a universal instrument of savings, according to Alexander Potavin, the chief analyst of the IT-Invest-Proprust IR : it is “hidden” and when inflation grows, and when there is no faith in the main world currencies-the dollar and the euro. “In fact, there is no alternative to gold,” Potavin believes. “Everything else is either too unreliable, like Japanese yen, or strongly overvalued, like a Swiss franc.” Since January 2011, the gold course has grown by almost 28.8%, the analyst calculated. If you trace the dynamics over the past 10 years, then it is completely impressed by the imagination: in August 2001, the price of Trox ounce was $ 267, now-under $ 1800. The rise in price is almost 7 times! Such a rapid growth of the Golden Market has not been observed since the times of great depression.
Exchange panic of the beginning of August proved: gold may well be considered a backup asset, believes Evgeny Proporshin, the chief economist of AFK System : “Its price remains stable for any development of events. And when restoring the market and good growth of the economy, and when the quotes of shares and panic of investors, as was the case in early August, fall. ”
Professionals noticed such a valuable property of dragmetal even before the Exchange panic. Fearing from the inflation and reduction of the dollar, the central banks of developing countries (Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Russia), without saying a word, began to hastily replenish their gold reserve. The Russian Central Bank was in the leaders of this process: in the first half of 2011, it bought 36 tons of gold, as a result of which the gold reserve of the country reached 830 tons, and the share of gold in international reserves was 7.8%. Domestic commercial banks are not behind: in January-May 2011 they bought 137.74 tons of gold from mining companies. Sberbank became the leader in the purchase of precious metal: he acquired 35.3 tons.
The growing demand for gold, of course, leads to an increase in price and - to anxious expectations: many experts fear that a new financial bubble is inflated before our eyes, which can soon or later burst.
It will not burst
Gold today is not as reliable as it seems, Maxim Osadchiy, the head of the analytical department of the corporate financing bank , calls not to relax. He proves this thought, comparing the cost of gold production and its market price. Even in the most expensive deposits, where they wash the gold, the cost of precious metall is $ 700-800 for a triple ounce, the Osadchiy argues. If you take cheaper ore deposits, then there the cost is even lower - $ 300-400 per ounce. It turns out that the market price, according to the most modest estimates, is 2-4 times higher than the cost.
Osadchiy compares the inflating of the “gold bubble” with the situation in the real estate market in Moscow: it is known that the cost of housing is about $ 1 thousand per sq. Meter, however, the meter is sold for $ 5 thousand. “There is a bubble, but it does not burst thanks to demand,” the expert notes. “The same thing is in the gold market: an unrealistically high price is supported by increased investment demand plus Central Bank purchases.” "

In fact, there was no alternative to gold. Everything else is either too unreliable, or strongly overestimated

“This bubble bursts or resolves - depends on how the financial situation in the world will develop as a whole, Osadchiy says. He believes that the world economy has already passed the zone of the highest turbulence, which means that interest in gold can fall off. However, the threat of global inflation remains, which is most likely to keep the analyst. Osadachi believes that the price will be adjusted, but the price will be adjusted, but the price will be adjusted, but the price will be adjusted, but the price will be adjusted. There will be no catastrophic fall.
The cost of gold has already reached its ceiling, says Alexei Mamontov, the president of the Moscow International Monetary Association : “As soon as the asset enters the strip of long -term growth, the risk of stopping this growth, reaching the ceiling and further collapse increases every day,” he warns.
Evgeny Praorshin admits that a sudden surge of optimism in the markets can lead to the collapse of gold quotations - if investors believe that everything will be fine and decide to “get out” of gold, returning to one or another currency or reliable state -owned -duty.

Defense against misfortunes
However, not all analysts think so. “There is no bubble in the gold market,” says Alexander Potavin. - Just people go into this tool to survive instability. If this period is delayed, it is quite possible that by the end of the year we will see the price and $ 2 thousand per ounce. ” Maxim Lobad, an expert of the Express BCS , is also optimistic: “Gold has always been a kind of financial standard and a measure of value,” he says. - The economic problems in the USA and the eurozone are obvious, this does not add confidence in the future to investors. Therefore, now gold is growing not so much on speculative purchases as in fundamental demand, on Safe Haven - protection against misfortunes. And it will grow until systemic changes in a global financial order occur. ” But even if we assume that the price of gold will collapse, this does not threaten a new financial crisis. “The gold reserves of the Central Banks are not their main component, this is only one of the components, not as large as many others,” Evgeny Praorshin reassures. According to the analyst, not a single Central Bank will sell gold simply because investors will begin to leave this resource. “It is unlikely that the Central Bank will chop the bitches on which they are sitting, that is, to throw off gold reserves,” Maxim Osadchiy is sure.
Meanwhile, ordinary depositors, having taken care of the recent exchange panic, hastened to fall to the valuable metal as the last refuge. Private investors around the world in one week of August bought 2276 tons of gold. In Russia alone, the consumer demand for gold, silver and platinum has grown by 45%. Banks are satisfied - the number of metal accounts has sharply grew: if in July 70–80 they opened daily, then in August it was already 110–120.
However, experts still warn from excessive optimism in relation to gold. Alexey Mamontov does not recommend investing in this metal today: “A year ago, I myself gave recommendations to buy gold. But those who would like to do it today, I think, missed the moment. Now the risks of revaluation of this asset are very large. ”
It was necessary to invest in gold earlier, Maxim Osadchiy agrees. “Our population reacts to a change in the market late: when you need to sell currency, it is just starting to buy.” Now, most likely, the price of gold is close to its ceiling, which means that in the near future it has a chance to roll down more than to rush up.