Translated material
: The end of Jamahiria
Colonel Gaddafi has already been written off from accounts. However, the battles in Tripoli are still ongoing and no one can say how much it will last. Like no one is able to say what the next government of Libya will be. Finally, the fate of Russian interests in the country under a big question.
Colonel Gaddafi does not matter. The point is not even that the regime with the rebels actually lost and there are battles for Tripoli, to evaluate the outcome of which from the outside is quite difficult, if at all possible. The fact is that almost the whole world has already recognized the illegitimacy of the Gaddafi regime.
When Russia after a five -month silence introduced the regime of sanctions against the Libyan, it was already caused by the impression that Moscow did not believe in the future of Muamar Gaddafi and actually wrote off the Libyan leader from accounts. The triumphal procession of the rebels confirmed this assumption.
Of course, the outcome of the battle for Tripoli is still not obvious. The rebels and government of Gaddafi give mutually exclusive information about the situation in the city, the course of battles, the arrests of the relatives of Gaddafi. However, almost all observers from different countries of the world have no doubt that Gaddafi's days are numbered. The League of the Arab states has finally recognized the rebels as the legitimate government of the country. The rebels will receive the place of a permanent member of the organization - so far they were only observers.
NATO helps the rebels in search of Gaddafi. There were even reports in the media that the special forces of the block members, in particular British, participate in the operation to capture Gaddafi. The British Ministry of Defense, however, did not confirm this information.
The rebels have already appointed a very impressive prize of $ 1.7 million, which increases the chances of promoting even loyal gaddafi residents. Actually, according to the recognition of the press secretary of the rebels, a reward for the head of Gaddafi is a proposal to the closest environment of the Libyan leader.
The Embassies of Libya in many countries have already changed the green flag of Jamahiria to the red-black-green flag of the rebels. Thus did the embassies in Belarus, Turkey, Serbia, Algeria and some other states. In Russia today, the Embassy of Libya lowered the Caddafi flag, but the flag of the rebels has not yet been raising.
True, the inconsistency of the information that in reality is going on in Tripoli does not make it possible to categorically assert that the almost non -ruling regime will fall in the coming hours. There are no reliable information whether the loyal cadfafi remained in Libya and in what quantity. There is no exact data on what area of Tripoli is controlled by the troops of the rebels. Those data that the rebels give do not cause any trust, since they have already been refuted (as it was with information about the arrest of the sons of Gaddafi, widespread by the rebels). In other words, there is no clarity regarding the resources that Gaddafi has. And without this it is impossible to accurately predict how much more the nominal power of the colonel in the country will last.
Libya is an ethnically difficult country and is quite represented by the tribal and clan struggle for power. And this already threatens the collapse of the country, perhaps the only reason for the unity of which was an authoritarian regime.
For Russia, an important problem is to defend the interests of Russian companies that develop hydrocarbons in Libya and build infrastructure. Representatives of the rebel camp have already stated that they have “questions” to Russian business in Libya, and political properties. In addition, Russia risks losing a large weapon market. On these issues with representatives of the new authorities (whoever it is) will have to conduct serious negotiations. It is not the fact that they will be successful - competition from Western companies will be very strong. In any case, if the Libyan conflict will have the beneficiaries, then Russia is unlikely to be among them.