Translated material
Growing forecast
Assembly of improving the quality of strategic planning in the scientific and technological field, the Ministry of Education and Science in 2007 in the framework of the FCP on research and development put up lots for a scientific and technological force for a total of 156 million rubles to the competition.
At the end of 2008, three of the organizations conducting the work-the open-stock company Interdepartmental Analytical Center (OJSC MAC), the Higher School of Economics and the Non-Profit Partnership “Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting”-presented a report on the results of the work “Long-term scientific and technical forecast of the Russian Federation” at the Ministry of Education and Science. The report was announced as "the first global study of the current state of the technology science sector in Russia and the first attempt to give adequate, taking into account world tendencies, the forecast of its development."
From acquaintance with the text of the draft report [1], the hair stood on end. The authors did not pay the slightest attention to the description of the methods they used: it is impossible to understand from the text of the report how and on the basis of what criteria experts were selected, how polls were carried out, etc., in the report there is generally no appropriate section! In only one of the footnotes it was said that "the basic community of the most qualified experts is, according to preliminary estimates, more than 2 thousand people, which is comparable to expert communities in foreign Forsytes." The draft report was written by chopped, sometimes without semantic ligaments with the language, there were phrases that, despite thousands of experts, did not attract at least two or three representatives of natural sciences to dismiss the report (“the electron charge will be replaced by other characteristics of its condition-photons”, “IBM specialists have already succeeded in creating transistors on carbonic nanotubes,“ IBM specialists, The characteristics of which are significantly superior to silicon products ”, etc.).
However, the leadership of the Ministry of Education and Science satisfied by the results of the work in the midst of the crisis - at the beginning of 2009 - put up the next series of prognostic lots to the competition, offering a total of 230 million rubles for the performance of work. (The total amount of the concluded state contracts exceeded 190 million rubles). At the same time (see the release of the challenge No. 30 of June 9, 2009), interesting details were clarified. It turned out that having an impressive success history in the competitions of the Ministry of Education and Science (19 contests - 19 victories) OJSC Mats, which concluded contracts from the Ministry of Education and Science in 2007 and in 2009. (in the latter case - in the amount of more than 90 million rubles) has direct ties with the leadership of the Ministry of Education and Science.
It was, the board of directors belonging to the state of OJSC Mats included A.A. Fursenko and I.P. Bilenkina (at that time - deputy head of Rosnauki) [2] . The latter, by the way, approved in 2009 the competition documentation for lots for long -term forecasting. A member of the revision commission of OJSC Mats was O.A. Lesina, part-time, she was the head of the Rosnauki competitive commission for lots for scientific and technological forecasting in 2009
There is a situation of an obvious conflict of interest, when the same people manage the formulation of the subject of the state order, approve the results of the work and are part of the leadership of the organization - the contractor. Probably, the members of the board of directors of OJSC MAC did not receive compensation for their work, however, it is quite difficult to count on objectivity when formulating the topics of public procurement, determining the initial price of lots and making decisions by a competitive commission in the light of the specified. In fact, it was decided to allocate large means of a friendly state structure.
2 years have passed. In 2010, Rosnauka was liquidated, the general director of OJSC Mats Alexei Ponomarev was appointed Deputy Minister of Education and Science, Inna Bilenkin became deputy minister, who left the Board of Directors of OJSC MAC in the same year. In the latest composition of the board of directors of the OJSC, approved by order of the Federal Property Management Agency No. 1144 of June 20, 2011 “On the decisions of the annual general meeting of shareholders of the Open Joint-Stock Company“ Interdepartmental Analytical Center ”” [3] , only Alexei Ponomarev remained from the leaders of the Ministry of Education and Science. And what happens to long -term forecasting?
Forecast in the law
Block 1 “Knowledge generation” FCP for research and development opens an event 1.1. "Search and normative medium and long-term forecasting of the development of the scientific and technical sphere." In the spring of this year, in its framework, in particular, two lots were announced for the performance of work on the topics “Actualization of the long-term forecast of the most important areas of scientific and technological development for the period until 2030” and “updating the long -term forecast of the areas of fundamental research” with the initial price of work in 82 and 30 million rubles. respectively. After holding competitions on these lots, two contracts were signed totaling 98.8 million rubles. for the period 2011-2013
What is the meaning of continuous updating forecasts for 20-25 years in advance is unknown, even meticulous Japanese carry out work on forecasting once every five years, and they are several times cheaper. Especially taking into account the fact that the matter is not limited to two lots - in total to carry out work on event 1.1. In 2011-2013 260 million rubles are allocated. The formulations of some of the lots set to the competition also cause bewilderment. Such, for example, is the topic “The study of the relationships of the most important parameters of socio-economic, scientific, technological and innovative development for the period until 2030”-in the light of the difficulties of long-term scientific and technical forecasting in general, the receipt of some real results in the field of establishing such connections for the long-term period would probably be a good application for the Nobel premium of economics.
But the event 1.1. -This is only a small part of the total budget expenditures for long-term scientific and technical forecasting: there is also an opening block 2 “Technology Development” FCP for research and development. Event 2.1. "Development of a system for choosing priority areas of development of science, technology and technology in the Russian Federation based on medium and long-term forecasts, taking into account the best world experience in this area."
Part of the contests for the event 2.1. Already passed, and you can see what the money is allocated for. About 440 million rubles. It will go to the usual monitoring of the work in the areas of the program (collection, processing and analysis of reporting information received in the implementation of state contracts in areas, etc.). The remaining funds will go to various kinds of prognostic work. Here life hits the key.
"Melkoy." For the performance of work on the topic “Analysis of the most important scientific and technological development in the context of civilizational cycles”, 6 million rubles will be paid, “Preparation of recommendations on state policy measures aimed at developing the resource base of science and technology in Russia, taking into account the best world practice” allocated 8.1 million rubles, and “analysis The base of various methodological approaches ”will cost the budget of 11 million rubles.
And "in a large way." On the topic “Development of road maps in priority areas of scientific, technological and innovative development”, 70 million rubles will be allocated following the results of the competition, on the topic “Development of roadmaps of innovative development of the sectors of the Russian economy”-another 52.5 million rubles. And for research on the topic “Assessment of the effectiveness of the development of science and innovation based on a unified system of forecast calculations” the state will pay 47.7 million rubles.
In addition, more than 100 million rubles. It will be allocated for the formation of a network of industry centers for forecasting scientific and technological development on the basis of leading Russian universities in seven priority areas ("Hoody Industry", "Science of Life", etc.). The technical specifications for each of the seven lots contain standard requirements about what should be done: “A network of experts in the relevant sectors and sectors of the economy that meets the profile of industry centers for forecasting scientific and technological development is formed,“ Materials for the long-term forecast of the most important scientific and technological development for the period up to 2030, as well as for the development of a system of road cards. In the priority areas of scientific, technological and innovative development for areas corresponding to the profile of industry centers for forecasting scientific and technological development. ”
And so on: - comparing the technical specifications for the performance of work in different lots for events 1.1. and 2.1., you can find the same formulations about the long -term forecast, road maps, etc. Which, during the "industry forecasting" as part of the event 2.1. Hundreds of some others will be involved in the unknown “leading Russian specialists-experts” compared to the forecasting work in the framework of the event 1.1. (or compared with work on the compilation of road maps)? Or, perhaps, it is planned to develop and use unknown in world and Russian practice methods of forecasting?
Questions, of course, rhetorical. It is obvious that all this expensive science -like imitation of useful activities with multiple duplication of topics in fact feeds a number of organizations closely related to officials, and its consequence will mainly be the distraction of significant material and human resources from scientific research and development itself. The only question that remains: would it be enough to implement all reasonable state tasks for forecasting and choosing a priority of 10 % of the funds allocated now or would 5 % have enough?
Not yet evening ?
However, it is interesting to note that so far OJSC Mats has not received new contracts, moreover, a terrible thing happened: taking part in the competition for the right to perform work on the above topic “Development of roadmaps of innovative development of the sectors of the Russian economy”, the Mats lost to the Stratiji Partners of the Group. The same CJSC won the “neighboring” Lot “Development of road maps in the priority areas of scientific, technological and innovative development” from the Higher School of Economics. At first glance, everything looks like a loss due to dumping: the tower and Mats offered the price of a contract close to the original, and the Stratiji Partnership Group CJSC dropped 25-30 %. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that in addition to the criteria for evaluating applications “Contract price” (35 % of the application assessment) and “The quality of work and qualification of the participant” (45 % of the application assessment) was also the third - “The deadline for the execution” (20 %). And OJSC Mats -unlike the tower -offered not the minimum possible time for the work and flew only at the expense of this (having set the minimum possible period, OJSC MAC would have won with the contract -maximum -the cost of the contract).
It is difficult to say that this is an excessive arrogance or planned action designed to demonstrate the honesty of competitions or harmfulness of law 94-ФЗ. However, you can be sure that the right people will not be left without work. It is possible to option when they will perform part of the work under contracts with the winners of the competitions, without shining in the register of state and municipal contracts. And perhaps close to the leadership of the Ministry of Education and Science of the OJSC will win some other competition. Fortunately, among the new lots there are quite delicious pieces.
The initial price for works on the topic “Formation of a system of monitoring of the economy of science to assess the state of science and technology and demonstrate new scientific achievements”-117 million rubles, and for work on the topic “Development of methodology and conducting a study on the assessment of the role of federal universities in the formation of the scientific, educational and innovative potential of federal districts and the priority areas of development of science, technology and technology” The Ministry of Education and Science is ready to pay 91.15 million rubles. At worst, you can participate in a competition for the right to perform work on the topic “Development of proposals for the formation of a long -term program basis for the implementation of state policy in the development of science and technology” (30 million rubles). In total, the event 2.1. In 2011-2013 1460 million rubles will be allocated.
" We have" and "with them"
But what about the "best world practices"? The most famous work on long-term scientific and technological forecasting has been conducting from the beginning of the 1970s of work on long-term forecasting in Japan. There, the next forecasting cycle is carried out every five years (see materials on scientific and technological forecasting in Japan in the presentation [4] ). About 23 million rubles were spent on the eighth stage of scientific and technological forecasting, held in 2003-2004. (at the course of those years) [5] . Moreover, during the work on scientific and technological forecasting in Japan in 2003-2004. Various forecasting methods were used, and the number of experts involved exceeded 2 thousand, which approximately corresponds to the number of experts involved in Russia during work on scientific and technological forecasting in 2007-2008.
In Russia, I recall, on the goals of long-term scientific and technological forecasting in 2007-2008. Approximately 150 million rubles were spent, in 2009-2010-more than 190 million rubles, and in 2011-2013. Only within the framework of the event 1.1. FCP for research and development is planned to be spent a total of 260 million rubles.
Paradox: In Japan, scientific and technical development is many times more than in Russia, but in Russia many times more than in Japan, is spent on long-term scientific and technological forecasting. However, it is clear why this happens: somewhere they think about the case, and somewhere about how to drink the budget.
1. Www.strf.ru/attach/prognoz_.doc
2. Http://pravo.levonevsky.org/bazaru09/raspor/sbor00/text00424.htm
4. Efmn.info/fles/Efmn-brief35.pdf
5. Www.unido.org/Foresight/rwp/dokums_pres/okuwada_japanese_ForeSight_Programme_34.pdf