The third term of Putin is a problem option

The New Times continues to follow the course of the parliamentary and presidential campaign week after week

Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to speak at the United Russia Congress, voiced in the middle of last week (August 31), and his words that he and Vladimir Putin have a coordinated development strategy show that the dialogue has resumed a dialogue on the most important issue today. Dialogue about the future of the president, about the concept of approaching elections. Even in winter, we saw a tandem suddenly began to stomp still and cast an angry glances at each other. The next months there was a feeling that the president with the prime minister was discussing only current cases, moving away from the discussion of the main issue. The dialogue is resumed - and that is good. The hitch and so did significant harm, first of all, Medvedev, who looked less and less as the head of state, making independent decisions: several times he spoke about his readiness to participate in the elections, but did not make a final statement. The reasons for this hitch are clear. In 2007, a decision was made to create a tandem. But tandem is only a political union. Obviously, not everything managed to foresee. And now the rulers have to improvise, inventing all kinds of decisions to get out of the crisis on the go.
Party impromptu
So, the decision to create a Popular Front is the obvious improvisation of Vladimir Putin. In a sense, the project of the “right -hand business”, which finally published its “manifesto”, became the same improvisation. The need to fill a vacuum on the right flank has been discussed for a long time. An attempt was made to reform United Russia with the creation of a strong right faction inside it. In a sense, an impromptu was the appearance in the center of this project of the figure of Mikhail Prokhorov. Unfortunately, everything that Prokhorov does now is also similar to improvisation, and not systemic actions. Campances are not won like that.
The launch of such projects is a very difficult process. In the Izvestia (August 30) published last week, an interview with the former deputy head of the internal policy department of the Presidential Administration Alexei Chesnakov tells how the brainstorms and glider are held on the Old Square, which discuss the contours of new party projects. The main goal of this interview is to tell how a project called the Fair Russia party appeared in the Kremlin. It is clear that this is a player’s story by the party in power - a lot of it is simplified and not all the facts stated are true: only according to sociological surveys, as Chesnakov says, parties are not created - this is always a coincidence of a number of factors. When the Socialist-Revolutionaries were created, Sergei Mironov coincided with the creation of a strong party and interest in Vladimir Putin in a powerful social democratic structure, including in an ecological glade. The prime minister oversees the programs to support the Amur tiger, white bears and whales, snow leopards and is sure that the environmental topic is in demand in society. Putin also turned to Gennady Zyuganov with the idea of ​​paying attention to the environmental topic, but the Communists did not respond, and therefore “Fair Russia” was created.
Today, the methodology of such a creation of parties is gradually giving up the past. This in the middle of the zero ruling center was so ahead of everyone else that he could calmly construct a political scene. But the situation has changed, and the first steps of the “right -hand business” show that the startup is not at all as smoothly as we would like: the queue of those who want to participate in this project is not visible, and this says a lot. After all, each political project can have two destinies: either he has been preparing for a long time, as it was with the same Putin, or I need an aggressive, exciting onslaught, when a new figure says: I myself go to solve the main issues. So in the mid-90s it was with the first congress of Russian communities, whose star was General Lebed. Why is it increasingly difficult to do the Kremlin to engage in such political construction? The reason is the fall in the authority of power. For the same reason, it is impossible this fall and the repetition of the situation of the December 2007 model, when Putin went to the public, patted his associate on the shoulder and said: "This is my successor." The country has changed.
Candidate 2012
That's exactly why in the upcoming elections the presidential candidacy should be put forward by tandem. And this decision cannot be the outcome of the Culuar transaction - it is impossible to get to the country with this. We must go out with the program, with the explanation of the decision. At the same time, there should not be political destruction of the second participant in the tandem.
I am convinced: Dmitry Medvedev’s candidacy remains preferable. It raises fewer questions and problems in the political class. But Medvedev’s nomination should take place with the full support of both Vladimir Putin and the United Russia party. All other options carry many risks. Putin, going to the third term, is a very problematic option. I am not saying that he is a bad president, but many dangers arise both outside and within the country. People will have a suspicion that Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency was a conspiracy to circumvent a constitutional ban. That the course on modernization, legal reform (and the political course is always a very personified thing) will be folded. Putin will be surrounded by an aura of counter -reform, reactions, and he will have to explain. You can, of course, simply twist the nuts on the principle of “what I want, I’m turning”, but this is not a far -sighted step, which will lead to an even greater reduction in the quality of the political process. We already observe the degradation of public policy, and it is impossible to develop this process further. It is one thing when, without explaining anything, a non -alternative leader who enjoys total support creates his policy - this is how Putin was in the middle of the zero. But today it will be, as they would say in previous times, by an act of voluntarism and will cause a negative reaction among its own voters. "

It is one thing when, without explaining anything, a non -alternative leader who enjoys total support creates his policy - this is how Putin was in the middle of the zero. But today it will be, as they would say in previous times, an act of voluntarism

”There is, of course, the option in which tandemocrats will go to the elections together. In the end, these are two unstable people, both ambitious, both have something to lose. But this decision should be agreed between them. They must tell us:“ We have different concepts, we do not want to refuse them, but we guarantee you the constitutional order and stability for the period of this campaign. We will not give it to some forces to use this situation for the situation for the situation for this situation for Distribution of the situation. ”
In such a situation, tandem can go to certain system changes: to develop the idea of ​​a parliamentary government or decide to strengthen the role of parliament. We are already observing both of these trends. It is no accident that in a number of regions of United Russia, “steam locomotives” from the government - Igor Shuvalov, Viktor Zubkov, Alexander Zhukov, Yuri Trutnev will lead to the elections. This used to be the government of the president, and it was formed on the principle of "I trust him, let it work." Thanks to Putin’s premiere, an idea arose that the White House is not a reserve personal account of the president, but a certain independent value, the top of the executive branch. And the further, the more we will move to the concept of the political cabinet of ministers. The same with the State Duma: it is no coincidence that at a meeting with journalists in Sochi, Medvedev announced the need to correct the political system: the parties should behave more actively, the institution of parliamentary investigations should be more effective.
Which of these options will be chosen in the end, we will find out very soon. It is unlikely that it will be possible to reach the situation in a limbo situation until December, as it was in 2007. So, a certain clarity in the question of who and in what format will run for the presidency in March 2012 may appear after the congress of United Russia.