Translated material
Tandem together and separately
Tandem together and separately. Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin are two presidential candidates: for this both the Duma opposition and citizens. How realistic is this or is we waiting for the return to the Kremlin of the National Leader for another 12 years? The rector of the Russian Economic School Sergey Guriev and former Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Sysuev argued about the pros and cons of the restoration at The New Times. Vladimir Putin has not yet announced that he wanted to return, but the campaign has already begun. What image is built by PR commanded by PR and according to whose recipes, and what efforts the prime minister himself makes, changing his appearance. About this - in the main topic of The New Times
“According to their position in society and the state, according to their interviews, according to their work and on working schedule-they are both ready and intend to go to the polls,” the Vice-Speaker of the State Duma, the leader of the LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky, shared with reporters after meeting with the president on August 29 (there Medvedev on the beginning of the parliamentary campaign). Zhirinovsky, known for throwing the ideas discussed in the presidential administration into the media space, even before they find real features, became far from the first politician who spoke for simultaneous participation in the race of both Putin and Medvedev. On June 20, the first deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, Ivan Melnikov, said that the nomination of two candidates from the authorities in the presidential election would become the most understandable option for the development of events. And already in early August, an independent newspaper was published in which an unnamed source in the Kremlin did not exclude that the president with the prime minister could compete with each other in March 2012.
Numbers
Sociologists record that citizens would like to see the name of both Medvedev and Putin in the election ballot. According to the Levada Center, in August, 42% of respondents believed that for the country this option would be optimal. On this, however, good news for Medvedev ends. Only 6% of respondents prefer to see him the only representative of the tandem in the elections, while Putin Premiere is 17%. When asked who will become the next president, 22% of respondents call the name Medvedev, and 41% - Putin. Only 12% of Russians believe that real power in the country is in the hands of the president, 27% prefer the prime minister. Finally, if citizens would find the names of both duumvirs in the election ballot on the site, only 16% would have voted Medvedev, while Vladimir Putin, according to Levada sociologists, can enlist 29% of voters.
The interlocutors of The New Times in United Russia argue that they did not make sociological research on the subject of a split in tandem and the nomination of both to the polls. “Any sociology on this topic will be irrelevant, because the respondent, answering the question, will have to make at least three assumptions,” says one of the party functionaries. - The first thing that Putin and Medvedev really had a fight was, contrary to what he had heard all over the past years on television. The second is to decide, but how he himself relates to their split. Third - how all this will affect his behavior on the site, where he will come and see two surnames in the ballot. " According to the insider, attempts to measure the mood of the population are held in the format of focus groups. They allegedly record that in the event of an open confrontation, Vladimir Putin, the regions, will win after the voting results. Both capitals are more loyal to Medvedev. But in any case, if the internal conflict in tandem goes to the open phase, this will instantly bring down the ratings of both politicians to historical minimums, and so already updated last week: according to the quite loyal public opinion fund, Putin's confidence rating first fell below 50% and is 49%, Medvedev’s confidence rating - 42% *** according to the data, according to the data . The Levada Center, which uses another formulation of the issue, the activities of Dmitry Medvedev at the president’s post are approved by 63% versus 75% ago, and the work of Vladimir Putin is 68% against 78% .. “It is important to understand that they do not have a personal rating,” says the interlocutor in the United Russia apparatus. - Medvedev’s rating is a rating of the president supported by Putin. The same - with the rating of the prime minister. According to our assessment, if the tandem is now being split, these indicators will have to be divided. In the optimal situation, it will be 40% against 30% in favor of Putin, in the worst, that is, the current one, - 35% against 25% in his favor. And there is less and less time to build up them. ”
Chances *
It will be especially difficult for this problem to solve President Medvedev. When on September 1, the media discussed the possibility of joining the President to United Russia (as co -chairman), an anonymous source in the Kremlin mockingly said that Medvedev could bring the party to an additional 10%, which will help her achieve the constitutional majority. With this attitude from their own team and in conditions of total control over television, people close to Putin, Medvedev’s defeat in the elections in the event of an open confrontation is almost guaranteed. Even those media that is considered to be loyal to the current president, such as NTV (the owner-Gazprom-Media), in the context of his war with the prime minister will rather take neutral, or even hostile positions in relation to Medvedev (The New Times, in No. 8 of March 7, 2011).
In the case of an open battle, experts also give preference to Putin. However, most of them are sure that the probability of such a fight is extremely small. “It doesn’t matter what considerations have, but to make the system choose between two candidates is to confuse everyone and arrange a short circuit,” says Nikolai Petrov from the Carnegie center. - If you believe the surveys, in the country as a whole, Putin will prevail. Moreover, now the president’s rating went down compared to the prime minister’s rating: the longer people expect the final decision, the less they believe in Medvedev as an independent figure. It seems to me that Putin will eventually just say that he is returning to the Kremlin, and Medvedev recognizes his decision regardless of the conditions. ” “This would be interesting from the point of view of the legitimization of the elections, but it is quite difficult for an administrative vertical,” Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, is confident. “And let the fatigue from Putin slowly but correctly accumulates, his rating is still higher than that of the younger comrade in tandem.” The head of the Politics Foundation Vyacheslav Nikonov, who in December will break into the State Duma on the list of United Russia, believes that such a scenario will plunge the political elite into a stupor. “Although many believe that this would be a manifestation of democracy of the political process, the struggle between the branches of the authorities will inevitably begin: the country can be distinguished,” says Nikonov. The professor of political science of Moscow State University, the vice-president of the Center for Political Technology, Rostislav Turovsky sees the purely technical reason why the nomination of two members of the tandem is impossible: “It is obvious that the ruling party“ United Russia ”will nominate a candidate who will be a winner from this fight, who has already stated that it would be based primarily on Vladimir Putin,” the expert notes. -In this case, Medvedev will have to go either as a representative of the Autsider party, which has a much smaller representation in the State Duma, or as a self-nominated person. Both of these paths cut off his access to both administrative and media resource, and he clearly loses. ” Although, for example, the President of the Effective Policy Fund Gleb Pavlovsky claims that let Medvedev lose in an open battle, this will radically change the country's political landscape: “He will be the leader of the largest minority, a real alternative to Putin.”
Tandem about yourself
May 10, 2009 (interview with the Japanese media): “Depending on the effectiveness of our work, both I and President Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev will make decisions on what we do in the future - both me and him. As for him personally, it is better to ask him. ”
September 2009: "We will agree because we are people of the same blood and political views."
December 2, 2010: “For a long time, as you know, we agreed with President Medvedev. Firstly, we are friends and work together. And we will decide with him who will take some place, and we will decide it in the interests of the country. The time will come, and we will make an agreed decision. ”
April 13, 2011: “Neither I nor Dmitry Anatolyevich are excluded that we can go to the polls. But we will proceed from realities, from the current social, economic and political situation and, of course, we will decide. The bustle around the elections does not contribute to the normal organization of work. Now, if we now give some wrong signals, half of the administration and more than half of the government will stop working in anticipation of some changes. ”
April 26, 2011 (in response to a request to comment on the article in the Financial Times, in which he was called not to return to the Kremlin and let Medvedev continue the course for reforms): “Future presidential candidates do not need support from abroad. Future presidential candidates need support for the Russian people. ”
April 27, 2011: “As for the election presidential campaign in Russia, it’s really too early to talk about it. Time will come - and we will make the corresponding decision ... You will like it, you will be satisfied. ”
Dmitry Medvedev
December 3, 2009: “Prime Minister Putin said that he does not exclude this possibility. I would also like to say that I do not exclude this opportunity. But we, as both said, in any case, people are close, who understand each other very well, working together. We can yet agree on how not to push the elbows, but to make a reasonable decision for our country. ”
April 26, 2010: “See, two citizens have already announced that they will exhibit their candidates. And I am sure that there will still be people who will say: we will put our candidates. What is bad about that? This is democracy. ”
April 12, 2011: “Of course, no one knows the future, but I can tell you that I, as the current head of state, as a president, of course, I think about him, I just have to do this. I do not exclude the fact that I will run for a new term, to the position of president. ”
May 18, 2011: “There is a competition that helps, but there is a competition that is at a standstill. I hope that when making it or in the course of making appropriate decisions about who where to be elected, what to do in the future, and we will be guided by just such a responsible approach, responsible primarily to the country and to its people. ”
June 20, 2011 (interview with Financial Times): FT: Do you allow you and Vladimir Putin could simultaneously run for president? Medvedev: You know, I think it is difficult to imagine for one reason at least. The fact is that Vladimir Putin and I still largely represent the same political power. In this sense, the competition between us, it can be detected, in fact, to those tasks and the goals that we have implemented in recent years. Therefore, probably, this would not be the best scenario for our country and for a specific situation.