No need to wait for sensations

Judging by how the first two weeks of the campaign went, we don’t have to expect any special sensations on December 4
The parliamentary campaign calendar has been decided. From September 9 to 29, the parties hold congresses and form their electoral lists, which must be certified by the Central Election Commission within the next 7 days. If this milestone is passed, the list is not rejected, then the submission of documents (the deadline is October 19) and no later than October 30, the CEC must register candidates. By October 14, a list of polling stations should be determined, and from November 3 to November 10, election commissions should be formed. In the interval - in the first days of November - there will be a draw, which will determine under what number this or that party will be indicated on the ballots. Next - a campaign on TV channels and in the print media.

Doomed to finish Few doubt that the party in power,

"United Russia" will dial

more than 50% - the only question is how much more. The same question is who will become the second parliamentary faction in terms of the number of mandates.

The Communist Party, obviously, will gain in no way

not less than 10%: it could have been two or three times more if Zyuganov had not commemorated the Great Generalissimo, comrade Stalin, in place and in the wrong place: this scares away the de-ideologized part of the protest electorate from the communists. People do not like extremes: if the Communist Party of the Russian Federation were a more modernized, more modern party, it could expand its electoral field and collect much more votes in the regions than it is now. In addition, there is a feeling that in recent months the Communist Party and its leaders have fallen into suspended animation: maybe they were told somewhere that they would not have problems with passing, and they calmed down. By the way, a similar situation with the Communist Party was in 2007, when their Duma campaign was much worse than the previous regional one. Let's see what happens next, but the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, even in the information field, looks much weaker than it was back in the spring of this year.

Middle peasants Leader

LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky once again proves that his political intuition works flawlessly. He does not make mistakes and learns from his own: in the last electoral cycle, the Liberal Democratic Party had a poor regional campaign, and in this, first and foremost, they deal with the regions. In addition, Zhirinovsky, just as he used to raise Russia from its knees, and even earlier promised to wet its boots in the Indian Ocean, today saddled the topic of “offended Russians”. Back in the winter, Zhirinovsky entered into a public skirmish with Ramzan Kadyrov and thus also scored points for himself: the North Caucasian region never gave Zhirinovsky anything, he has nothing to lose there, but in the eyes of voters he acts as a fighter for the interests of the Russian majority: today it is quite a winning image technology. No matter what words that “we will not allow” “inciting” and so on, the president may say. Considering that the protest electorate is quite large today, Zhirinovsky, I think, will confidently collect his traditional share,

about 10%, maybe more. The Kremlin does not wet him, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation gives away part of its protest people, rivals make mistakes - in these conditions, he can still receive a significant bonus.

„

The vertical is arranged primitively and is capable of carrying out only template orders: it was said to United Russia to give more than 50% - this is what the efforts of the election commissions will be directed to

”

Concerning

"Fair Russia", no matter what they say, and the attack on her by the Kremlin, with whom Mironov quarreled, will most likely bring her extra votes. By the way, exactly the same situation was in 2007, and then in the regional elections: the more there were screams that the Socialist-Revolutionaries would gain little, the more - twice as much as predicted - they collected. In addition, this party has many significant for the regions, charismatic politicians. And this, by the way, is an important difference between A Just Russia and the new Koremlev project, Right Cause, which is tipped to replace it. In 2007, the Socialist-Revolutionaries were dragged to the State Duma not by a federal list - the regions where the lists were headed by such charismatics as Oleg Shein, Oksana Dmitrieva, Galina Khovanskaya - there are about thirty of them in the provinces. As for the screams and sobs about the imminent end of the Mironov project, this only leads to the fact that the electoral base of A Just Russia becomes more oppositional: the authorities have cleared the political field so much that opposition votes will be forced to go to Mironov. Those who, for ideological reasons, are not ready to vote for Zhirinovsky or the Communists, are more likely to tick off the Socialist-Revolutionaries. So I think they have a chance to score

more than 7%. Outsiders Many absolutely unreasonably believe that if the Kremlin curators "wet" Mironov, then this increases the chances of getting into the State Duma

"Right cause". I am convinced that with the campaign that Right Cause is conducting today - and this is an extremely loyalist campaign, an absolutely pro-Kremlin manifesto issued by them, Prokhorov will not be able to take opposition votes from the Socialist-Revolutionaries, the Liberal Democratic Party, or the Communists. The youth? Perhaps Prokhorov is attractive to them, but young people, firstly, do not get to the polling stations, and secondly, those who are going to go today choose not between parties - between Navalny’s strategies (for any party, except for the party authorities) and "NAH-NAH". They say a lot that since Vladislav Surkov is behind Prokhorov, he will get some part of the administrative resource of votes. This is a deep delusion of naive people who have never had anything to do with a real campaign on earth. The vertical is arranged primitively and is capable of carrying out only stereotyped orders: United Russia was told to give more than 50% - this is what the efforts of the election commissions will be directed to. They won't even think about any "Right Cause" there. Officials are not capable of working for United Russia until lunchtime, and after that for someone else: they will simply go crazy from such a split. In addition, do not forget that the governors have their own personal tasks: to get their own creatures on the lists of the ruling party. And intraspecific struggle takes a lot of strength and energy. And, finally, Right Cause does not have charismatics capable of dragging regional lists with them: Boris Nadezhdin is in the Moscow region, and even then it is not clear whether he will hold out or not, Evgeny Roizman was supposed to carry the Sverdlovsk region, but he, judging by everything, they “didn’t agree on everything”, well, in Kaliningrad they pulled up the same Doroshka, but this is a small region, there won’t be enough votes for one mandate, well, Krasnoyarsk, where the Norilsk Nickel factor, will give something. But all this is not enough:

5.1% - in such conditions, the best that Prokhorov can count on. But I don't believe in it either.

"Apple" and

"Patriots of Russia" - they have no chance at all. The former simply had no one and nothing left, the latter could count on something if Dmitry Rogozin came to them with his Congress of Russian Communities. But both Rogozin and KRO obviously gravitate toward Putin. Therefore, their function in this campaign, and for the sake of this they are kept afloat - to draw some votes from the Communist Party, from the Communists, from the Socialist-Revolutionaries, from the Liberal Democratic Party - nothing more.

Remake-2007? In short, we are likely to face deja vu: the new State Duma, unless something extraordinary happens, will repeat the previous one in terms of party composition: there will still be the same four parties: United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Just Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party. The intrigue, in fact, is only in what percentage each of them will receive and whether Right Cause will be able to get at least an additional chair - to step over the 5% barrier, which guarantees its leader the right to sit in the building on Okhotny Ryad. It may be objected that the data of sociological services show a different picture: the rating of Prokhorov's party is growing - someone gives it already 5%, someone is more cautious - 3%, while the percentage of Mironov's party, on the contrary, fluctuates around 6-7%. But I would not trust them too much: our sociology always works for the customer, therefore the rating of the party in power or those promoted by the authorities is always higher than the real one, and the opposition is always lower. In addition, the vast majority of those who come to the polls are de-ideologized people and make decisions close to the day, if not on the day of voting, and easily change their preferences. In this sense, the protest electorate works according to the principle of communicating vessels: something happened, and those whom sociologists considered as supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party can vote for the communists, and vice versa, the “undecided” will consider that it is more rational to give their vote to those “horses” who more likely to reach the finish line, that is, they will go to the Duma.