Translated material
Star wars
Surkov vs Prokhorov
Star wars. The former leader of the “right -handed” Mikhail Prokhorov announced Jihad to the first deputy head of the presidential administration Vladislav Surkov: “The country has a puppeteer who privatized the political system and disinforms the country's leadership. While such people are governing the political process, politics in the country is impossible. ” What weighs on political scales more: $ 18 billion or administrative resource - The New Times found out from politicians and experts
Most of the respondents believe: Prokhorov’s departure from the perspective of the leader of the Kremlin’s right -capacity project, which was also accompanied by a powerful scandal, is a serious blow to the presidential administration and its main ideologist Vladislav Surkov in particular. Surkov himself has not yet answered the attacks of Prokhorov yet - well, unless not a single federal channel was broadcasting from the meeting of supporters of Mikhail Prokhorov (as it was with the Congresses of the LDPR and the Yabloko party, for example), but all the reports were greatly censored: the multimillion Russian viewer, who did not read the Internet, did not find out about the assessment of the activities of Surkov Allai Pugacheva, Neither about Prokhorov’s promises to resign Surkov. This, in fact, is the answer of the deputy head of the presidential administration. However, it is obvious that the struggle of one of the richest people in the country with one of the most influential people in the state apparatus will take place "under the carpet". And then experts rather give the victory to Surkov.
Surkov: The power of the office
Vladislav Surkov has been working in the presidential administration since 1999. He is one of the creators and ideologists of the United Russia party, the curator of all campaigns and the patron saint of all Prochrevsky youths who are about to begin to demand Prokhorov’s landing. Prokhorov is not a politician, a businessman. Until this summer, when, in agreement with the Presidential Administration and Dmitry Medvedev himself, he headed the “Just business”, he did not have to be a direct participant in political games.
“Political newcomer Prokhorov is not even Surkov,” says Gleb Pavlovsky, president of the Effective Policy Fund , who has long been an adviser to the head of the presidential administration. - Prokhorov said that he intends to create a new party, but he will not be able to realize in politics if his main goal is the resignation of Surkov. This is not a program. And to say that Medvedev will send Surkov at the request of Prokhorov is ridiculous. ” Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov is also shared by the same opinion: “Prokhorov has the same situation as Khodorkovsky’s: the declared ambitions do not correspond to real opportunities. Surkov in politics has long been. A negative train reaches for him, but this will not prevent him from staying in place. ” The fact that it is pointless to fight against only Surkov, said The New Times and the chairman of the unregistered party Parnas Vladimir Ryzhkov : “Surkov cannot be the only goal of Prokhorov. Behind him is Putin. Prokhorov was already made to understand that he was mentally unbalanced - representatives of Medvedev and Putin hinted in the press that he would not achieve the audience. ” 
Another reason for Prokhorov’s likely defeat in this war is the practice of irremovability of high officials, experts say. Public opinion here does not play exactly any role, as well as the degree of guilt of the official. Surkov is a unique person in his own way: he creates both Putin and Medvedev so necessary for their political comfort. “There is a basic principle for a vertical - not to succumb to any pressure for any reason. They believe that if they are bending once in some position, it will be perceived as a sign of weakness, and the vertical will shake, ”says Alexander Kynev, head of the analytical department of the Voice association .
Another reason why analysts are not inclined to believe in Prokhorov’s victory is that the businessman caused dissatisfaction with President Medvedev, who was a supporter of a small right -winged party in the Russian Duma. Not only did he hire Ukrainian political strategists, he also declared his claims to the post of prime minister and-Chur, me! - President. “Prokhorov led the campaign of the“ right -hand business ”with the help of extremely dubious people and extremely doubtful ways. And Medvedev will also suffer reputational damage from the failure of the “right -hand business”, because a certain part of the establishment associates the project with him, ”says political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky . That Prokhorov, as a politician, failed and cannot pose a serious threat, said The New Times and the founder of the Russian community Congress, still a representative of the Russian Federation in NATO Dmitry Rogozin , who had a conflict with the Kremlin administration in the regional parliament in 2006.
The threat to repeat the fate of Khodorkovsky is another significant argument that can force Prokhorov to retreat. Opposition politician Boris Nemtsov , to whom Vladislav Surkov, according to rumors, nourishes a deep personal hostility, directly advises Prokhorov not to climb into the embrasure. “If Prokhorov remains in politics,” he told The New Times, “then his freedom, business and capital will be in danger. As a politician, I believe that he should remain in politics, but as a person and comrade - that he should return to the business. ”
Taran for enemies
What kind of Prokhorov in his war with Surkov? Political scientist Rostislav Turovsky believes that the conflict around the “right-hand business” testifies to the internal contradictions in the presidential administration, and that the struggle for the cabinet of ideologist No. 1 is unfolding there: “Willy-nilly Prokhorov begins the struggle for the future format of the presidential administration”. According to him, this can play into the hands of those figures and structures that are interested in a radical change in the balance of power in the presidential administration. “This is not just his (Prokhorova) personal resentment and whims, but participation in a large political game on the side of the opponents of Surkov,” says the political scientist. He calls the central character of the group of opponents of Vladislav Surkov, the Deputy Prime Minister and the head of the headquarters of the All-Russian Popular Front Vyacheslav Volodin. Stanislav Belkovsky also supports this version. According to him, there are many influential people in the power who want Surkov’s resignation and even achieve it: this circle begins with Volodin and ends with representatives of Medvedev’s personal environment from his press service. “One Prokhorov has no chances to throw off Surkov, but the whole population of people who want Surkov’s resignation has,” said Belkovsky The New Times. Vladimir Ryzhkov also believes that Prokhorov has a chance in politics only if he is united with other forces, for example, with the Parnassus Opposition Party. 
The enemy of this hypothesis was the president of the research center "Political Analytics" Mikhail Tula . He believes that Prokhorov has the opportunity to remove Surkov in only one way - to leave politics and start an information war against the deputy head of the presidential administration: “That is, to engage in systemic discrediting the personality of Surkov. Sooner or later, it is possible to resign his resignation, if you often remind Medvedev that Surkov led a compromised black campaign against him in 2007 and early 2008, when Surkov worked to be appointed by Sergey Ivanov. ” In his opinion, Medvedev can solve the issue of Surkov’s resignation without Putin. As an example, the political scientist cites the fact that in 2008 Medvedev insisted on Igor Sechin’s transfer - Putin’s right hand - from the presidential administration to the government. Boris Nemtsov also believes that Prokhorov can act alone: “In the United States, he owns a basketball club and builds a stadium in New York, congressmen will listen to him, so he can lobby for the adoption of the cardin list, which will cause a serious blow to Surkov.” The second thing Prokhorov can do personally, according to Nemtsov, is to conduct and make the investigation about the "Black Cashcet of the Kremlin, which is managed by the Surkov." Gleb Pavlovsky also calls the option in which Surkov can lose his post - if Medvedev takes advantage of the situation to give a new impetus to his own political renewal program: “She stalled recently, and politicians often use the conflicts created by others in order to put their performance on this new stage.”
In any case, the success or failure of the Crusade against the main Kremlin ideologist will largely depend on Prokhorov himself, who, having thought for 7-10 days (as he said at the meeting of his supporters), can simply pretend that the words about the resignation of Surkov are nothing more than the figure of speech. If the businessman decides to prove to the Russian establishment that “the kid said - the kid did it,” then extremely curious both the parliamentary and the presidential campaign can be waiting for us.