On Monday, September 26, the euro found support and by 12:30 Moscow time reached 1.344 dollars/euro.

On Monday, September 26, the euro found support and by 12:30 Moscow time reached 1.344 dollars/euro. The growth of the European currency is only a rebound after the past difficult week.

IMF may write off part of Greek debt

Despite the Greek government's statements that it will do everything possible to prevent a default, global regulators still do not think so. The main news on the foreign exchange market was a BBC report that the IMF is developing a plan that involves writing off 50% of the Greek debt. This is the negative part of it. Positive - implies an increase in the volume of the financial stability fund (EFSF) to 2 trillion euros. The implementation of the plan can be announced within 5-6 weeks. The amount is mind-boggling, but it is not yet clear where the IMF will get it from.

But if the eurozone approves an increase in this fund to the indicated size, then global stock markets will experience a sustained rally. But the euro may lose a lot against the dollar, since such significant amounts of support for the eurozone are reminiscent of the quantitative easing programs from the Federal Reserve, which resulted in a significant weakening of the US dollar against all world currencies.

Statistics are positive

The stimulus for the growth of the euro was data from Germany. The German business climate index, calculated by the German economic institute Ifo, decreased in September 2011. to 107.5 points from the August value of 108.7 points. At the same time, the data turned out to be better than expected - analysts predicted that the index would be 106.5 points in September.

This is an unexpected positive that players have been missing in recent weeks. Despite the financial crisis, the business climate in Germany remains favorable. And this gives hope for the restoration of economic growth in the eurozone countries in the near future. At the same time, data on the business climate is by and large a leading indicator, and may differ from statistics on industrial production and data on GDP growth.

There are prerequisites for renewed growth in the eurozone

Speaking about the prospects for the development of the eurozone, it can be stated that there are all the prerequisites for renewed growth. But the Greek factor will continue to weigh on the EU economy. To solve the problems, Europe will have to resort to debt restructuring, which could cause a shock among investors. And this is where EFSF funds will be needed to keep the financial system afloat: firstly, to maintain the bond rate of Spain, Italy and Portugal, and secondly, to recapitalize the banking system.

However, once European banks write off bad Greek debts from their balance sheets and are convinced of the stability of Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bonds, this may be followed by a confident increase in the European currency in the short term. This can cause a powerful increase in exchange rate value, after which the euro will fall into a long-term downward trend.

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Daily Forex: statistics from Germany supported the euro