Translated material
Mortgage paradise is postponed due to the crisis
Photo: ITAR-TASS
By the beginning of autumn, an idyll reigned in the mortgage market: “The mortgage and housing lending agency” ( AIZHK ) reported that the percentage rates on ruble mortgages for the first time in history fell below 12% per annum. At the same time, the housing availability coefficient, calculated under the “Housing” program for 2011-2015, has decreased below the target level (see graphics). Now you need to save up a standard kopecks of three people, if you put off all income, is needed for less than four years. And even in Moscow, where the accessibility coefficient traditionally goes off scale, it is steadily at the levels, significantly lower than the pre -crisis: a family where two work and put off all income, it is necessary to accumulate 7-8 years for housing. After 5–10 years, according to the government mortgage of the development of a mortgage, which provides for the availability of housing for half the population, a mortgage paradise could even come. According to AIZHK calculations, the declared goal is achieved, it is only necessary that the real housing prices grow 20-30% slower than citizens' incomes. But it was not there.
Ruble mortgage rates, 2009–2011
For loans issued within a month, % per annum
Source: AIZHK
How many years to save for an apartment
* The ratio of the average market value of a standard apartment with a total area of 54 square meters. meters and average annual total cash income of a family consisting of 3 people
Source: AIZHK, Rosstat, Department of Economic Policy and Development of Moscow, IRN, Slon.ru calculations
Model dynamics of income and housing prices
* 30% of families by 2015 and 50% of families by 2020 - according to the government mortgage development strategy, using their own or borrowed means
Source: AIZHK
AIZHK warned a month ago: in the case of changing the conjuncture in world markets and reducing oil prices below $ 90 per barrel, there is a danger of reducing the quality of the mortgage portfolio of banks . The delay, the agency indicates, may begin to grow already in the second half of 2012 due to the reduction by banks of the requirements for borrowers in late 2010-early 2011 and the increasing distribution of loans with a low level of initial contribution. In addition, “old” borrowers who took a risky mortgage on the eve of the crisis and/ or have already passed through restructuring can also reach the delay.
The expectations of a recession in developed countries and the threat of Defolt of Greece not in vain make mortgage borrowers and regulators worry. “The behavior of the real estate market depends on how deep the recession will be,” explains Maria Kolbina, analyst VTB Capital. - If there is exactly the same repetition of the crisis situation as in 2008, then the picture in developers will be repeated. The sector will fall in sales, price correction will occur, the rates will grow. ” The possible drop in real estate prices and the growth in bets have already forced the “Restructuring Mortgage Housing Loans” (ARIZHK) agency to open a hotline for collecting information about problems with the solvency of borrowers.
“Arijk is constant monitoring, but there are no bursts on the hot line yet and signals are not received from regional partners either. However, it is known that at least six months pass from the volatility in the market to real problems among borrowers. The agency is ready at any time to resume the support program for mortgage borrowers, ”said Arizhk, General Director of Arizh, Andrei Llyn.
So far, housing owners are in the plus. Increased volatility in the stock markets led to a renewal of funds to the real estate market, said Oleg Rephenko, head of the IRN analytical center. According to the resource, over the past week, a square meter in Moscow has risen in price by 3% to 160,870 rubles, since the beginning of August the growth amounted to almost 15%. The growth of ruble housing prices occurred against the backdrop of seasonal activation of transactions and weakening the ruble. However, in the case of a new wave of crisis, comparable in strength with the one in 2008, prices will decrease by 30–35%, Ropchenko predicts.
Such a decrease in prices will lead to the re -implementation of all those risks that manifested two to three years ago. A significant part of the foreign exchange loans and loans with a variable rate will cease to be serviced, due to problems in the real sector, the delay will grow along the ruble mortgage. And after the collection of pledges, the borrowers in some cases will remain still considerable amounts of the creditor can. Only those who take loans for a short time and have sources for early repayment can feel more or less confident. According to the Central Bank, there are not so few such: according to the results of the first half of the year, the share of prematurely repaid loans at the expense of their own funds of borrowers amounted to 30% of the issue (a year ago - more than 40%). For the rest, taking loans for a long time, a mortgage is a very risky game in the real estate market, and often with the only housing.
There are several mechanisms that could protect borrowers and bring the Russian mortgage market closer to the level of developed countries. Says Deputy General Director of AIZHK Andrey Semenyuk: |
It is advisable to introduce a restriction on the amount of payments in the income of the borrower when servicing a loan. The restriction on the issuance of a mortgage loan can be set at a level of a maximum of 45% of the income of the borrower, and the right of the borrower to restructure the debt - if this indicator exceeded 60% of the monthly income. So far, there are difficulties for legislative consolidation of such a norm due to difficulties with confirming the income of borrowers and the correct calculation of the share of payments in income. Borrowers who took a loan with a floating rate for a long time without restriction on the size of the maximum rate take over colossal risks. To solve the issues of protecting borrowers who have taken loans with a floating rate or in currency, may introduce restrictions on the amount of maximum payments in the monthly income of the borrower. But now they do not represent a big problem for the market, since the level of financial literacy after the crisis has increased. In many countries, after the recovery of the mortgaged housing, the borrower owes nothing to the bank. It happens that the borrower’s debt is 200% of the cost of the realized housing. It is necessary to make the debt of the borrower finite. The loan agreement may provide an option under which the bank will not be able to demand a debt above a certain threshold in 100-120% of the cost of the pledge. In other cases, the restriction of the debt and the settlement of the debt will take place as part of the development law of the individual. An increase in the debt of the borrower over the cost of the pledge occurs not only due to the fall in real estate prices, but also due to the accrual of fines and penalties. The dissemination of the practice of timely restructuring of loans and the adoption of the Bankruptcy Law will lead to the accrual of fines and penalties to the bank will stop in time. When the amount of the collateral is not enough to cover the entire debt to the bank, the insurance company can cover the difference. This will lead to a rise in the cost of a loan rate for tenth or hundredths of a percent. Now the banks have no incentive to demand mortgage insurance, because it is not taken into account in assessing the risk of loans in the formation of reserves. It is necessary to differentiate loans depending on the risk when calculating the rate of sufficiency of bank capital.