Where did the money go? Pyotr Aven answers

The chairman of the Board of Directors of Alfa-Bank , Peter Aven, warned that "capital markets for Russia are closed and the first liquidity calls arise in the economy." Where did the money disappeared , which, it seemed, was in abundance yesterday? This is stated in the presentation presented at the conference "Alfa-Bank" ("Russian Banking Sector: Opportunities and Threats in New Reality"). The schedule below shows that the growth of corporate loans was almost completely funded from banks in accounts in the Central Bank and short -term funds of the Ministry of Finance. In autumn, these funds also added funds raised by direct repo from the Central Bank. The liquidity crisis begins to acquire systemic features . The Chairman of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, said that he does not exclude liquidity deficit due to the sale of currency banks, and confirmed the readiness to provide additional liquidity of 1 trillion rubles. Aven insists that the pure currency position of banks is small today - $ 25 billion - and this is not such a fundamental gap as in 2008. The main danger, he said, is a lack of liquidity in the economy as a whole. “Today's crisis in the world is a political crisis, not economic,” Aven explained. - If Europe were a single fiscal whole, then there would be no problems. But we enter into a fairly long period of stagnation, and the investigation for Russia is quite obvious. We will face further outflow of capital, we can expect a drop in energy prices. But the main thing, of course, is that the capital markets will be for us if not completely closed, then slightly ajar. For us, they are closed for the last 3-4 months: the gradual growth of interbank rates began. The exceptional volumes of direct repo operations with the Central Bank show that the first liquidity calls arise in the economy. ” What can such "calls" in the economy lead to? The companies will go for money not to banks, but to the government and VEB, as it was in 2008. However, the head of Alfa-Bank believes that the Alarmist situation will not arise in the "next three months." Here is the forecast of Aven due to a tense situation with liquidity:

“Liquidity calls” will arise further;
There is a hope that the Central Bank will be able to support banks with a sufficient volume liquidity - due to the expansion of the pawnshop list, as well as changes in the requirements for reserves; It will not reach unstressed auctions from the Central Bank, in any case - in the next three months;
The pressure on the ruble will most likely increase, since the market has the feeling that oil prices will decrease; The outflow of capital will continue, according to the results of 2011 - will be $ 60 billion; The Alfa-Bank index, reflecting the confidence in the market, previously correlated with the RTS index, but now it is below the index. Therefore, potential liquidity problems can still affect the stock market.

Exclamation of liquidity

Source: Alfa-Bank

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