The Russian political scientist reflects on who is behind color revolutions in the Arab world and in the Middle East

The famous Russian political scientist and the Islamic schola, the president of the Institute of Religion and Politics, a member of the Council for Interaction with Religious Associations of the President of the Russian Federation Alexander Ignatenko, in an interview with the seller of the magazine "Science and Religion" Mark Smirnov, commented on the dramatic events that took place in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East.

According to A. Isonatenko, the so -called "Arab Spring" is an extremely complex, multifaceted, combined phenomenon. In these events, several layers are read. First of all, this is an uprising, rebellion, indignation of the masses with difficult socio -economic conditions. It is very characteristic that these revolutions were first in Tunisia, then in Egypt and further around the Arab world coincided with a sharp rise in the cost of the main food products.

There is, as the expert believes, and the other layer - in a sense, is fundamental. In all these countries, the regimes, once revolutionary and nationalist, have degenerated over the past decades and have become regimes of personal power and property. Simply speaking, they robbed their peoples. But new elites who would like to use those benefits, the advantages that the stay in power have also grown.

The third layer in the events under consideration is the so -called color revolutions, which are a redistribution of power and property between elite groups.

In Egypt, since 2006, there were several attempts by color revolutions - for example, in 2008. However, their leaders could not mobilize the broad masses of people. The events of the line of 2010-2011 gave this mass support of the population. On Tahrir Square, they were able to collect a large number of people who protested - some against one, others against the other, but a general vector appeared: "Go away!"

With these words, crowds of people turned to Mubarak in Egypt, Ben Ali in Tunisia, now they turn to President Saleh in Yemen, etc. This also applies to Gaddafi, who is finally tired of the Libyan elite. Both in Libya and among the Libyan emigrants there were opposition groups who did not like the regime of the personal power of Gaddafi, which was completely indifferent to the interests of the Libyans and elite groups. Some analysts say: Gaddafi created such conditions for the Libyans in which they rode like cheese in oil. But in fact, this is not so. And the events in Libya showed that the people - in any case, a significant part of it - is extremely dissatisfied with what happened in the country.

However, with the beginning of all these revolutionary events, the contradictions that were rested under the Arab countries appeared-the contradictions of national religious. We are witnesses of how national-liberation movements unfold in Arab countries. At the same time, in a certain sense, they can be called anti -Arabic, because those peoples whose rights were suppressed raise their heads. This is primarily Kurds in Iraq, Syria, as well as Copts in Egypt, Berber or Amazigi, as they call themselves, in North Africa, then the Persians in the Persian Gulf states, Africans in Mauritania. This is already enough for their movements to blow up the Arab world and individual Arab countries.

When they talk about the external impact on events in the Arab world, they mean the West, the United States of America, NATO. Meanwhile, here, first of all, it is necessary to talk about Iran and Turkey. These states seek to play their game. Turkey intervenes in the internal affairs of Syria, Iran in the most serious way affects the events in the Arab world, which is very clearly visible in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, as well as in the Arabic states of the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Yemenia ... In all these states there is a Shiite minority, the majority in the Bahrain of Shiites, and there is a serious problem, name The national liberation or religious-liberation movement of the Shiites. Sunni monarchies accuse Iran of direct intervention of these events.

The situation in Bahrain shows that, on the one hand, there is a Sunni mobilization, and on the other - Shiite. A curious thing: Bahrain foreign consulates give out passports to their country to the Sunniites from other Arabian states: Saudi Arabia, united Arab Emirates, etc. They can even remain in their own Saudi Arabia, but it is assumed that when elections will be held in Bahrain, the owners of new passports, as citizens of the country, will vote and thereby compose a fictitious Sunni majority of Bahrain citizens, where Shiites actually make up the majority.

Thus, in the Islamic world, a rather difficult situation has developed, which does not fit into the concept of "revolution". How this complex, combined socio-political movement will develop is now very difficult to say, but, most likely, the fragmentation of existing states according to the religious and ethnic principle. The breakdown of Libya into two, or even more parts; It is possible to disintegrate Syria, this is not excluded in Saudi Arabia. I am sure that the map of the Middle East in the foreseeable future will somehow change.