Translated material
Mikhail Khodorkovsky: Country before the fork
Electoral campaigns - that parliamentary, that presidential ones are by no means a competition of political ambitions, but also the possibility of public discussion about which direction the country should move
Between China and Africa
So, the first way: agree with the position being taken. Grow to the extent that will occur world growth.
It is unlikely that this can arrange such a thing, since the main part of the world's population does not live in the West, the middle is the place between China, India and Africa, and noticeably worsened. In connection with our harsh natural-climatic conditions and African corruption, we have to incomparably large expenses for transport and heating our dwellings. Today, Russia is located in the middle of the sixth of the countries in terms of per capita GDP (both at the nominal rate of the ruble, and by purchasing power parity). And if the Russian economy will grow by the current pace, 3.5% –4% per year, then we are unlikely to be able to rise higher - “growing in the back” growing faster Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico.
Russia needs to grow ahead of pace, otherwise a gap with developed countries in terms of level and quality of life will only increase from year to year. After all, their growth, even slow, comes from a much higher “base”.
Not one oil
The second path: to achieve the redistribution of global GDP in its favor, hoping to continue the growth of world prices for raw materials, mostly energy. Alas, it is difficult to do this.
Firstly, the dynamics of energy prices does not really depend on us. That is, for Russia it is an external factor on which we are not able to essential or qualitatively influence. And to build a long -term economic strategy of the country (any) on the factors that are outside the zone of reasonable national control, to put it mildly, is not very far -sighted.
Secondly, the share of Russia in the global production of energy carriers is limited to 10%, and there is no prospect of significant growth. Even to maintain the current level of oil and gas production, every year it will be required to spend more and more funds. And gigantic investments in the development of the Shtokman field, in the construction of the Northern Stream and other gas pipelines in 3-4 years can be very, very recruited, especially if the production of liquefied and shale gas in the world will grow in accordance with the available plans.
Thirdly, the increase in oil prices required for a noticeable state of affairs in Russia (up to $ 200 per barrel by 2015), if it occurs, will give a powerful impetus to the introduction of already developed energy conservation and energy production from alternative sources. The energy strategy of Northern Europe, aimed at displacing hydrocarbon raw materials in the foreseeable perspective, is impressive. 
And finally, the economic model of Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, whose well -being is entirely based on oil and gas, is hardly applicable to Russia - we are too much so that everyone is well lived only due to income from the export of raw materials, which, moreover, are not the cheapest in prey.
The economy is smart
The third possible way from the current state is an “industrial breakthrough”, the growth of Russian production. Just do not immediately scare yourself by the fact that our lag in labor productivity from developed countries is very significant. This means only that our country has significant potential opportunities.
Any reasonable path of Russia's development can be called industrial. It is within this wide concept that two options are contained in simplicity: traditional industrialization (“mass production”) and “knowledge economy” - the industrialization of individual products and newly created technologies.
I am convinced - the traditional path - “development of mass production” - would be a monstrous mistake for Russia. Undoubtedly, we can, by investing a significant part of the country's financial resources and potential, import a significant number of relatively modern industries, and even establish the production of appropriate mass products-cars, clothes, some machines and the like. We will be able to provide ourselves with this product and even offer something for export. However, going in this way, we will exhaust the possibilities today and will remain discarded for decades from the advanced countries. Russia cannot produce all types of modern goods for self -sufficiency - our domestic market, although large, but not so as to ensure sufficient demand for many industries. Moreover, today in the world practically no country goes along this path. This means that it is obviously necessary to focus on international economic integration, and therefore, you need to search and rely on your competitive advantages. We do not have competitive advantages for organizing the vast majority of mass production. There are no hundreds of millions of relatively cheap working hands, familiar to constant monotonous work (as in China). No (for most of the country) the advantages of the coastal location.
Our communications are stretched by land by thousands of kilometers, which means that transport costs are much higher than that of many competing countries. Our climate forces most of the work in heated rooms, and finally, stable conveyor production does not really correspond to Russian cultural traditions. We are more characterized by the ability to one -time, “peak” efforts, for the creative understanding of technological processes. All this is not suitable for the conveyor.
Of course, cultural traditions, habits can be broken, you can change the systems of education and upbringing, which in 30-50 years will make us like Germans or, on the contrary, to the Chinese. This requires several decades of totalitarianism, which we hardly want, and most importantly - we will not be able to endure. And why? It is much better to use the traditionally strengths of the people, of which there are many.
The most interesting thing is that they are surprising for the knowledge economy, for the “in -line” development and launch of new technologies, for the production of individual products with a high intellectual component, for everything that requires creative thinking, the desire for a new, for unusual, albeit risky.
Russia, our people seem to be specially created for such a path.
However, it is also not simple and makes the highest requirements for the education system, infrastructure and state institutions. Creative, highly educated people are the main value of the modern world.
Russian dream
It is impossible to lure them to our country with a simple “salary”. Everywhere they can make good money, and additional money is not serious motivation. The main thing for them is the possibility of creative self -realization, existing only in an open, democratic society, with quality, working structures - state and civilian. What America still provides, being fully a country with a modern economy, focused on attracting brains from around the world.
Fortunately, there are more places on this Olympus more than one. So people are arranged - not everyone wants to live in the United States, and today we can, using American experience, not repeat their mistakes with exaggerated political correctness, with too bulky legal system and other costs of the American Dream.
But in general, we look like Americans. They are similar to boiling energy, the desire to move forward, take risks, invent. This is ours.
When there was a century of great geographical discoveries, they went west. We are east. Both we and they left behind the era of mass industrialization, the construction of giant factories, the production of countless identical things. Necessary and not very. Good and so -so.
We created this world together. The world of disposable dishes, the world of competition for minimal costs, the world of the same. But now we must go forward, to new knowledge, technologies, products. The Americans are already there. And we lagged behind and trampled for 30 years on the same fork. Isn't it time to move forward?