Leonid Gozman: What happened on December 4?

It was an all-Russian referendum on confidence in the current leader and the system he built. And the government lost this referendum

Strange as it may seem, the past elections turned out to be by no means just a spectacle, but a very serious event and — I understand that few will agree with me — with a chance to have a huge impact on the country.

From the very beginning of the Duma campaign, the nervousness of the authorities seemed surprising. And they suddenly began to look for enemies, without inventing anything new compared to 2007. And the front was created not understand against whom. Both sensitivity and subtlety were shown, somehow not suitable for our open spaces. One case of booing is worth something. Somewhere in a country that is not as spiritual as ours, someone who is responsible for organizing contacts between the leader and the people would simply be fired - do not substitute, they say, the boss, do not take him to where they do not like him - and would have forgotten. The leader was not hired to please everyone. And our press secretary held a special briefing, as a result of which all those who had not known before learned about the event, and those who doubted who exactly they were whistling at, successfully resolved their doubts. But most importantly, the leader himself, it seems, was much more worried than any Obama, if he found himself in a similar situation.

Why so? After all, it would seem that nothing depends on the opinion of society, and the distribution of seats in the Duma does not matter at all? Does anyone really doubt the absolute controllability of all the parties participating in the elections? The government or, soon, the president, could with equal success carry out any decisions in the Duma, even if there were at least all communists and socialist-revolutionaries, even without the faithful Zhirinovsky. But the event that took place in the country on December 4 was not a parliamentary election at all. Forget parliament. It was a much more important event - an all-Russian referendum on confidence in the current leader and the system he built. And the government lost this referendum.

Lost in different ways. In big cities - with a bang. The country as a whole is not so terrible, but still lost. And no matter what they say today, they do not celebrate victory. Forced to admit the figure is less than fifty - and after all, a couple of weeks ago it seemed unbelievable - they know how many Chechnya and Dagestan, hospitals and pre-trial detention centers, teachers who have nowhere to go, and soldiers brought in formation are in this figure. They also know, they know better than we do, that the well-established system of "correct" counting of votes has begun to falter, that against large-scale well-organized control it is not as omnipotent as it seemed to them and to us quite recently.

It would seem, so what? "Sustainable majority", the triumph of democracy. We will only remove the governors who did not make a proper contribution to this success, and move on. But the fact is that a lost, or, to put it mildly, because it could be worse, an unwinnable referendum strikes at the very foundation of the current system.

If you ask Sarkozy or Merkel, who also annoyed many, why it is they who rule, and not others, the answer will be extremely simple - "because you chose us." Our people can’t answer like that – people don’t trust the elections for a long time. Their answer is different: we are in power because we are with Putin, whom you yourself want to see in power. There is nothing in power but Putin's charisma. Therefore, any blow to this charisma - ridicule about amphoras or the yellow "Kalina", booing at the stadium, or even a lost referendum - is not just a nuisance, but a threat to the very existence of the system.

For more than a year now, politicians and experts have been saying that Russia is on the verge of something that one does not want, but one has to call a revolution. The sixteenth year - the general understanding that the system is hopelessly outdated, consolidation against the authorities, disbelief in anything that comes from above, the inadequacy of the monarch and the court, their complete misunderstanding of what is happening in the country - is repeated today.

The revolution can only be prevented by large-scale political reforms - they will not provide heaven on earth, but they will direct events in a peaceful direction. In our case, these are new laws on political parties and new law enforcement so that the obviously necessary political parties demanded by society are finally created and registered. These are new election laws and, accordingly, new law enforcement in this area. This, finally, is the dissolution of the newly elected Duma and new early elections. But the result can be achieved only if the authorities realize that without this, a catastrophe - and not only a catastrophe of the country, but also their personal catastrophe - is absolutely inevitable. So far, the authorities have not understood this.

If Nicholas II had not been so convinced of the naturalness of autocracy for Russia, if he had not overestimated the devotion of the people to the absolutist monarchy and to himself personally, he might have made concessions, and our history would have been different, less terrible. Then it didn't happen. But perhaps today's lost referendum will help people at the very top to realize what has long been clear to everyone: you can't live like this?

Judging by their first actions, they do not yet realize. Look at the discussion on the Rossiya channel on the post-election night, look at the dispersal of protesters after the elections. But at least someone out there retained at least the instinct of self-preservation? What other arguments besides the election results do they need? Then they will draw conclusions, and the nightmare of the beginning of the last century will not be repeated, including thanks to those who on December 4 did not allow the victory of the EP. If not, society will never return to its former state anyway. The experience of successful resistance - namely, it was demonstrated on December 4 - changes people. You won't be able to manage like you used to. The only question is what will happen first - the realization of this obvious fact by the authorities or an explosion?

Takeaway: Manage, as before, will not work. The only question is what will happen first - the realization of this obvious fact by the authorities or an explosion?