Russian winter Foreign media spotted signs of a new Tahrir on Bolotnaya

Russia is changing, and now the Kremlin will have to adapt to new conditions. Western media came to this conclusion by analyzing the events of the past week, which culminated in thousands of rallies against election fraud in dozens of Russian cities. Failure to make concessions to the opposition threatens the emergence of a protest movement similar to the Arab Spring.

Another Russia

“Just a week ago, it was simply impossible to imagine this,” the British The Daily Telegraph wrote on the evening of December 10. “Mr. Putin’s positions seemed unshakable, and his ruling party United Russia seemed invulnerable.” “Of course,” the authors stipulate, “opposition protests have happened in Russia before, but as a rule they were small in number, quickly and brutally suppressed by the authorities and did not cause the Kremlin any more or less significant inconvenience. This time everything was different. The police could only be careful watching how people who recently did not participate in rallies, and who were not at all interested in politics, take to the streets in tens of thousands.”

“On Sunday, many in Russia had the feeling that they had woken up in a new country,” says the German Die Welt in an article entitled “Civil society has awakened in Russia.” “The day before, up to 100 thousand people gathered on Bolotnaya Square in Moscow alone in protest "against fraud in parliamentary elections and against the Putin regime. It was the largest demonstration in the last 12 years - and it was peaceful."

The fact that in the week since the State Duma elections Russia has changed more than in all the years of Putin’s rule is noted with surprise by the authors of the overwhelming majority of foreign publications. “Mercenaries, liberals with beards, jacking around foreign embassies - that’s what Vladimir Putin called representatives of the Russian opposition,” writes the American weekly Time. “But never before has the opposition posed a threat to his rule. Now everything can change.”

From now on, the Kremlin will not be able to ignore oppositionists or simply brush them aside, handing out biting nicknames and inventing offensive epithets, Time journalists are sure, and authors of other Western media tend to agree with them. In this regard, two questions arise: how will the protest movement develop after Bolotnaya and, most importantly, how will the Russian leadership react to this sudden intensification of civic consciousness?

Tahrir more Moscow

Photo by Andras Fekete for Lenta.ru
Open photo gallery "Day of Civil Unity"
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“The scale of today’s rallies in Moscow and other Russian cities makes December 10 the largest day of civil protest since the beginning of the Putin era,” writes the British The Independent . “But the main question now is: what next?” The author notes that although all participants in rallies in Russia support the abolition of the status quo, only a small part of them are ready to support “marginal opposition leaders such as Boris Nemtsov,” and Alexei Navalny, the only person who enjoys broad popular support, has no political experience.

“Getting permission for such a large-scale anti-government rally is unheard of in Russia,” the authors of the note continue. “This means that Mr. Putin is trying to demonstrate to the world that he is ready to put up with individual, controlled manifestations of dissent.” But otherwise, they note, the authorities tried their best to prevent the rally from taking place, sending spam to the websites of opposition movements and threatening participants with the risk of contracting the flu and being drafted into the army.

Meanwhile, most publications saw in the Russian “revolution of the well-fed” the prerequisites for the formation of a powerful and comprehensive protest movement, similar to the one that covered the Arab world in early 2011. Journalists eager for memorable labels have already come up with several names for the future popular uprising, in particular, “Snow Revolution” and “Russian (or “Slavic” ) winter.”

In contrast to the authors who point to the absence of serious opposition leaders in Russia, adherents of this point of view write about the non-ideological nature of the “For Fair Elections” rallies. “It’s unclear how this could happen,” the authors of The Wall Street Journal wonder. “Among the protest participants and speakers were representatives of the Communist Party, nationalists, and defenders of the rights of sexual minorities. They were united by outrage over blatant election fraud, and among their demands are a recount of votes in the December 4 elections and the resignation of Prime Minister Putin."

Western media hasten to assure readers, spoiled by the millions of crowds in the squares of Egypt and Tunisia: the fifty thousand people who came to Bolotnaya Square in Moscow on December 10 is an unprecedented event for the Russian capital. “Against the global background, these figures may seem insignificant,” writes a Moscow correspondent for BBC News , “but for Moscow this is very, very large. Vladimir Putin has never had to deal with popular protests of such a scale. Over the years in power, he has become accustomed to considering himself the most popular and the most powerful politician in Russia."

“The significance of the moment cannot be overestimated,” the author summarizes. “Perhaps the protesters did not deal a mortal blow to Mr. Putin’s government, but this is certainly the most alarming call he received during his 12 years in power.”

The Austrian Wiener Zeitung even believes that the mere fact that the Russians overcame their fear of the authorities and decided to go on a mass demonstration indicates that the country’s leadership will soon receive its own Tahrir.

The Kremlin is waiting

Vladimir Putin. Photo (c)AFP

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There are different opinions regarding exactly how the Russian authorities are going to act in the new conditions. For example, journalists from The Guardian considered that the protesters had already forced the government to make a number of concessions. This was reflected in the fact that the authorities agreed to an anti-government rally of many thousands in the center of Moscow, and in the fact that this rally was shown on all state channels.

But the authors of Time are inclined to believe that the authorities simply want to give the oppositionists the opportunity to let off steam. The ruling elite of the Russian Federation, the publication writes, is divided into two camps: representatives of the first (and the most numerous of the two) believe that the effective response will be a quick and decisive suppression of protests, a ban on new demonstrations and, if necessary, their forceful dispersal. There is, however, a minority who hope that the protest movement will fizzle out on its own.

From the way Russian authorities acted during the December 10 rallies, the authors conclude that the second, moderate approach has prevailed, at least for now. After all, the fact that the police did not use force against the protesters only means that they received such an order from above, and not at all that “the police are with the people.” The same opinion is shared by the authors of a column in the British The Times, who note that state channels, which, as in Soviet times, remain the most important political instrument of the regime, could show footage from rallies only by decision made at the very top.

The newspaper's authors give three explanations for the actions of the authorities. First, Putin is simply waiting until passions subside, so that he can then deal with his opponents. Secondly, it is likely that the Egyptian experience has taught him caution, and he will make minor concessions, for example, dismissing one of the unpopular officials in order to save his rating. Third, Putin realizes that his return to the Kremlin can only be justified by the democratization of political life and a tough fight against corruption and lawlessness. Unfortunately, this version seems to journalists the least convincing of the three.