The past year has been very troubling for the global economy. And this anxiety affected the Russian economy. What can we say if everyone has become accustomed to the ominous phrase “second wave”.

SERGEY MINAEV

When the global financial crisis of 2008 broke out, the Russian authorities immediately announced that this particular crisis proved that the Russian economy is part of the global economy. It all started with the American mortgage lending crisis, and ended with a decline in production in Russia and the appearance of a significant budget deficit instead of a budget surplus. American financiers, who were too carried away by playing in the mortgage market, as well as the US leadership that condoned them, were blamed for all the troubles not only by the Russian authorities, but also by the governments of European countries (both those included in the euro area and those not included; primarily the British). In response, political opponents of the ruling European parties said that these parties, by blaming the Americans, simply wanted to abdicate responsibility - while they themselves encouraged irresponsible financial transactions. In this sense, the Russian authorities found themselves in a winning situation because they did not encourage anything. In the case of Russia, everything turned out to be as simple as possible: due to the global financial crisis, world oil prices, which reached $100 per barrel for the first time in early 2008, reached almost $150 per barrel by the middle of the year, and fell to $30 by the end of the year. So Russia’s participation in the global financial crisis occurred as if against the will of its authorities and financiers. After all, it is not their fault that the Russian economy depends primarily on the export of hydrocarbons.

In 2010, when world oil prices were at a very good level, the Russian government, simultaneously with the authorities of the United States and Europe, announced that the global financial crisis, if not completely over, was beginning to be overcome.

It so happened that the outgoing year began exactly the same as 2008. During trading on January 14, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent, in its upward movement, crossed the $100 mark for the second time in history: at some point the price was $100.37 per barrel (in 2008, this mark was crossed for the first time on January 4 - the price was $100 per barrel, 09). There was another similarity in one more circumstance. In January 2008, everyone was well aware that there were significant problems in the American mortgage lending market. Celebrating the achievement of $100 per barrel, OPEC President Shakib Khelil said: “We are following with interest what is called the American crisis, which could affect Europe and the rest of the world, slow down global economic development. A recession in the global economy will inevitably lead to a decrease in demand for oil and affect the level of oil prices." In January 2011, everyone understood perfectly well that European countries were experiencing a debt crisis: they were spending borrowed funds too widely to support entrepreneurs and citizens. The International Energy Agency, an organization of oil-importing industrial countries that opposes OPEC, was quick to note that $100 a barrel could make it much more difficult to revive global economic growth and particularly hurt European countries in debt crises. Analysts from investment banks also considered $100 a very unpleasant event for the global economy. Sabine Shels from Merrill Lynch noted: “When the price of oil produced in the world reached 9% of the entire world GDP, we had a real economic crisis - this was the case in the 1980s, this was the case in 2008. So far, at a price of $100 per barrel, oil represents 7.8% of world GDP, but when it comes to $120, that’s exactly 9%.” Banking analysts also said that euro weakness as a result of European debt problems makes $100 a barrel an unsustainable price for countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain: their debt problems will become even more intractable.

Analysts started talking about the long-awaited second wave of the global financial crisis already in January of the outgoing year - in connection with oil prices. It was very important how the world financial markets would celebrate the next anniversary of the beginning of the first wave of the crisis (the beginning is usually considered to be September and October 2008). After all, everyone loves round dates: for example, the authorities of all countries started talking about the beginning of overcoming the crisis on the second anniversary - in September 2010. The third anniversary was celebrated completely in the spirit of the second wave. The fall began with the euro at $1.43; On September 29, they gave it $1.36, and on October 3, even less—$1.32. In Russia, the ruble to dollar exchange rate has fallen sharply. If September began with the official dollar exchange rate of 28.92 rubles, then on September 28 the rate was 32.22 rubles, and on October 5 it was already 32.68 rubles. This drop was explained by foreigners withdrawing money from the Russian stock market - as well as from the markets of other developing countries. Meanwhile, it was the change in the attitude of investors and speculators towards the dollar that was a symbol of the first wave of the crisis. Previously, they considered the dollar to be an ordinary currency, often not even very attractive, while the stock markets of developing countries, on the contrary, valued it very much. And during the crisis, the dollar began to be considered not an ordinary currency, but the only real money for which it was necessary to urgently sell other currencies, as well as shares.

In the fall, shares were subject to a flash sale not only in the markets of developing countries, but also in the markets of industrial countries, including the United States. September began with the Dow Jones index at 11,619 points, and on October 3 it was almost 1,000 points less - only 10,655 points (in that one day the index fell by 258 points). Three years ago, investors and speculators were primarily getting rid of bank shares; the same thing happened now. In particular, on October 4, the stock price of European banks fell by 4.2%, while the shares of the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia fell by 37% (and this is in addition to the 10% by which these shares fell in price on October 3). “What we see now is that investors take turns choosing one bank as a victim. Dexia turned out to be the weakest at the moment - it fell. It’s up to politicians to save the banks - no matter what you call this rescue, even nationalization. Otherwise, the global financial system will stop working again, and we will immediately see a new real global credit crisis,” said Justin Stewart, director of the investment company Seven Investment Management.

The behavior of banks played a key role in the 2008 crisis. In previous years, they actively provided loans to ordinary citizens against the security of real estate under construction or purchase, without particularly going into detail regarding the real price of the collateral and the ability of the borrower to ultimately repay the loan. The matter was decided by competition: if you don’t give a mortgage loan, your competitor will. In the fall of 2008, a monstrous crisis of mutual distrust between banks broke out: no one knew how many loans had been issued, secured (or rather, unsecured) by real estate collateral, so the banks, just in case, refused to lend to each other. Authorities in all countries have had to deal with this crisis of mistrust by allocating public money to banks.

In the past year, absolutely the same story happened, only banks vying with each other to lend not to citizens, but to the governments of European countries. At the same time, as the IMF management stated, the banks behaved completely irresponsibly, without drawing any conclusions from the events of 2008. The matter was explained by the same competition between banks. As a result, by the fall of 2011, a crisis of mistrust between them again arose: no one knew how many bonds anyone had in Greece and other European countries in dire debt situations. The central banks of the leading industrial countries had to overcome this crisis: at the end of November they announced that they would inject dollar liquidity into the world money market so that commercial banks would know that there were plenty of dollars in the financial system. And this step showed everyone as clearly as possible that the second wave of the crisis is underway and the authorities of industrial countries are fighting it with the same methods as they fought the first.

By the fall, the Russian government was freely talking about a new global financial crisis. In particular, on October 5, President Dmitry Medvedev directly stated: we will pay teachers’ salaries - unless a global economic collapse occurs. And in November and December, the Russian authorities used the expression “second wave,” while again making it clear that in any case, Russia was in no way to blame for this wave. Citizens of the country have become accustomed to the idea that something bad is happening in the global financial system and this is affecting their daily lives: for example, no one is surprised that a dollar is worth more than 31 rubles. True, people also know that world oil prices have not collapsed yet.

On a wave like on a wave