
The publication " Arguments.ru " publishes an article by political scientist Oleg Nemin.
On December 24, a new action "For Honest Elections" should be held. The Russian opposition wants, at least, to repeat the quantitative result of the previous campaign in Bolotnaya Square. Then, from 25 thousand to 100 thousand people, to protest against the elections, came out, according to various estimates. Now, only through social networks have expressed a desire to come to a rally of more than 40 thousand people.
The political scientist notes that Russian protesters have a very big systemic problem - the lack of a universally recognized leader. The current leaders of the opposition are either morally (and some physically) are outdated, or simply in front of their eyes discredited themselves in the eyes of the public.
The new leader of the Russian opposition should be a real Antiput. He must be “anti” in everything. The political scientist suggests that this is most likely a woman. After all, it is the figures of women politicians (Yulia Tymoshenko in Ukraine or Nino Burjanadze in Georgia) that make it possible to consolidate a protest against men. The political scientist suggests that this is probably due to the fact that throughout the 20th century, in critical periods for the country, it was the female image that raised the people to a nationwide feat.
Secondly, this should not be a brutal security forces, but, for example, a public figure or economist, offering constructive compromise decisions.
Thirdly, according to the political scientist, he should not have the “baggage” of the 1990s.
And fourthly, the new leader must have the experience of real victories in the fight against power. The political scientist compares the leaders of the opposition with the biblical Moses. They lead their supporters from square to square without visible results. But a protester is not ready to wait until he was brought to happiness. He needs success here and now.
Unfortunately, the Russian opposition has a very short bench. People suitable for these criteria and ready not only to lead the protest movement, but also to take all responsibility for its participants. The political scientist believes that this is clearly not a murder of Rynsk and not Ksenia Sobchak. Perhaps a few people could claim the role of the queen of the revolution. One of them is the State Duma deputy Oksana Dmitrieva (“Fair Russia”).
Oksana Dmitrieva is capable of decisive action in critical situations, has experience in public work and a low anti -rating, can gain support for both the left and the liberal voter. It is a system critic of the current power vertical. The experience of successful work in Yabloko and Fair Russia gives it the opportunity to enlist the support of both left and right -wing voters. Its nomination for the role of the leader of the opposition gives 16% automatically (13% "SR" plus 3% "apple"), at least 20% in reality and about 25% of electoral support. It is also important that, having experience of scientific work, it will not cause an allergy to the intelligentsia.
Oksana Dmitrieva, which is extremely important, has a real experience of successful victories behind him. It was the call of Oksana Dmitrieva brought pensioners in 2005 to many thousands of rallies against the monetization of benefits under the 122nd Federal Law. Her merits are great in a boat over the project of the Gazprom skyscraper on Okhta, and in the struggle against the governor Valentina Matvienko.
At a time when the parquet opposition only says that she does not recognize the elections, Oksana Dmitrieva was the first to formulate and filed lawsuits in the courts, prepares new rallies and pickets-both in Moscow and in St. Petersburg.
An important fact, the political scientist believes that Dmitrieva herself is ready to act as the leader of the united opposition. In fact, today it is the second person in Fair Russia. The faithful ally of the leader of the "SR" Sergey Mironov Nikolai Levichv has long recognized the actual parity between Mironov and Dmitrieva. By the way, not only ordinary and prominent party members, but even Sergey Mironov himself, recognize their leaders. From the rostrum of the congress, he offered the Dmitrieva post of the Prime Minister in the event of his victory in the presidential election-aware of, however, his own indistinctness for the post of head of state. But Sergey Mironov is ready to cede and support Oksana in her claims for leadership.
However, even when preserving the regime, the probability of which cannot be excluded, sooner or later in a boat called “Fair Russia” Oksana Dmitrieva will become crowded. Therefore, the political agent believes, Dmitrieva has only one way - it is to win the love of protesters in the streets. In order to approach the presidential election with a decisive step through this mass protest. Of course, on March 4, 2012, we will not see her in the balloon, but the political scientist believes that there is no doubt that in the next elections-for example, in the coming summer or autumn, she will be able to become the first woman who headed the Russian state.