The Central Bank unexpectedly reduced the bet. What is he?

The Central Bank presented the New Year's surprise to the market: he reported a reduction in refinancing by 25 percentage points to 8% from December 26. At the same time, the Central Bank narrowed the corridor of interest rates and raised the deposit rate, which should smooth out the volatility in the monetary market. In its release, the Central Bank indicated that the decision was made taking into account the assessment of inflationary risks: annual inflation was reduced and on December 19 amounted to 6.4%. At the beginning of next year, the Central Bank expects an even more significant decrease in inflation. However, when deciding on the rate, the Central Bank was guided by a medium -term forecast in connection with the planned increase in prices and tariffs since mid -2012. The acute decrease in only 25 centers of the Central Bank also explained by uncertainty in the development of the foreign economic situation. Individual experts said that the bet can be reduced before the end of the year. However, most of them, as consensus prognoses show, did not expect anything like this. Why did the Central Bank need to reduce the bet right now, Slon asked the economists.

Anton Struchenevsky
Senior Economist "Troika Dialog"
- “Three Dialog” expected to lower the Bank of Russia refinancing rate in the next three months. However, we assumed that now this would not happen. On the one hand, inflation is at a low level and this creates the prerequisites for the interest rate of the Central Bank to be reduced. But, on the other hand, there is a problem related to Europe where a crisis is observed. The profitability of Italian bonds is very high, and a decrease in the interest rate potentially makes it possible to play Carry traders. Speculators can play to borrow at a very low rate in Russia and invest in Italian bonds. This would increase the outflow of capital from the country, and, apparently, the Central Bank, which is better visible a picture of demand for foreign currency, is forced to carefully weigh the risks. Obviously, banks need more money at lower rates, but this can stimulate the outflow of capital. Of course, the Central Bank has no obligations on the exchange rate of the ruble, and this reduces the appetites of speculators for the game. After all, the excessive outflow of capital affects the weakening of the ruble, and Carry traders can lose. However, it is no coincidence that the repo rate remained unchanged. Thus, the Central Bank makes it clear to the market that a decrease in the interest rates of the Bank of Russia and, accordingly, a decrease in the rates in the monetary market with a successful conjuncture will soon occur. We expect to see a decrease in the repo rate in the next quarter.

Julia Trucheaeva
chief economist BNP Paribas
- We did not expect a decrease in the refinancing rate at the end of the year: representatives of the Central Bank last week said that they were suited and there would be no changes in politics. And in principle, we expected that bets could continue to remain at the same level, since there is no particular need to lower the rate. Our forecast for the growth of the economy for the next year is 4.5%, which is associated with high oil prices. Nevertheless, reduced inflation creates the prerequisites for mitigating monetary policy. From our point of view, a decrease in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank means that we entered a new cycle of mitigation of monetary policy, which may continue next year. Nevertheless, there will be no sharp movements: we expect that in the second half of the year inflation will accelerate. Another decision of the Central Bank is much more interesting - we are talking about narrowing the corridor of interest rates between the repo rate and the rate of raising funds. This compression makes a interest policy more strong, as it reduces the volatility in the monetary market. We expect a narrowing of the corridor by lowering the repo rate. It is possible that as a result we will see the bets of bets of 50–75 percentage points against 125 percentage points. Now.

Ivan Chakarov
Chief Economist Renaissance Capital
- The market did not expect a decrease in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank, and the consensus showed that this would not happen before the New Year. But the analysts of the Renaissance Capital have previously said that the bets still need to be reduced. This forecast was based on the fact that the next year could become very difficult for the global economy. There will be a recession in Europe, a soft landing in China and not very high growth in the USA. All this will also affect the Russian economy: we think that next year the economic growth in Russia will be 2.5%, despite the fact that the consensus expects more than 3%growth, the government - 3.7%. So now it is a very correct time for the Central Bank to respond to a possible slowdown in economic growth by reducing the rate by 25 percentage points, although this is not the most powerful solution. Now the most important interest rate is the rate of direct repo, which has remained unchanged. Most likely, the Central Bank is careful because it expects to see what will happen at the beginning of next year. Perhaps data on recession in Europe will begin to arrive, and in Russia political risks associated with the presidential elections will be implemented.