A trump card at a peak

Today everyone only says: a revolution is coming in Russia. The Lenin formula "The tops cannot control, and the lower classes do not want to live in the old way" as well as possible reflects the essence of the moment. Crowds of people on the streets, the confusion of the Kremlin are obvious symptoms.

But the revolutionary situation is short -lived and unstable, like a ball that rolled to the top: a little pushing - and will roll in any direction. It may not lead to changes at all: the crowds will get tired and dispersed, the Kremlin will recover from the shock, use its serious resources, and everything will return to its circles. Or, worse, it will end with an even more rigid dictatorship. The outcome primarily depends on how the people who took fate took this temporary instability to the forefront of history - one and a half dozen leaders of protesters.

To begin with, we determine the subject. The revolution is a change in the regime unconstitutional means in the interests of society. Without public benefit, the revolution turns into a coup, rebellion, riot. The revolution is always legitimate, but the trick is that the legality of the revolution is usually formed retroactively after the victory. As the poet said, "the rebellion cannot end in luck, otherwise his name is different."

But how to determine the legitimacy of the resistance of power not retroactively, but today - here and now, when the outcome of the case is unclear? The analysis of world experience shows that the formal violation of the law in the struggle against tyranny is actually not a crime, but has a serious legal substantiation.

The founder of liberalism, the author of the idea of ​​a “social contract” between power and society, the inventor of the principle of separation of powers, the British philosopher John Locke wrote that the “right to an uprising” arises when the authorities cease to take care of folk good and reads exclusively about itself. The uprising against such power is not only law, but also the obligation of responsible members of the company. The right to resist the authorities that have turned into tyranny is written in many legal documents, for example, in the Declaration of Independence of the United States, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Constitution of Germany and others.

Of course, most of those who go to the square in Moscow do not consider themselves revolutionaries. They would like to defeat the regime not by a revolutionary, but legal, constitutional way. But let's call a spade a spade. Protesters consider the chosen parliament to be illegitimate and, apparently, will consider the president’s newly elected in March. In fact, they require a change of current government, using the tactics of street protests. If the power gives them to their requirements of re -election, it will certainly fall. If this happens, looking back, we will all call today's events a revolution.

As for the authorities themselves, she is absolutely not interested in her own shift and completely turned off the constitutional mechanisms - elections, parliament, courts. People who control the Russian state have broken so many firewood that in the event of a change in the regime they do not have to count on a calm pension, they are waiting for the court and prison. Why on earth will they bury themselves? No, they will fight to the end in all available ways. Moreover, if they manage to stay in power, then, taught by today's experience, they will do everything to prevent such situations in the future.

Therefore, for the Russian civil society, the preservation of the regime will turn into a disaster: he should not hope even for the previous, Kutsy standard of freedom. Under the pressure of the moment, the authorities promise three boxes, but will not fulfill anything, and then twist everyone into the ram. Sweet speeches sounded from the lips of Medvedev and Surkov is a smoke curtain. Their goal is by any means to prevent re -election. But after "the street calms down," even the most harmless protests will be criminalized and retroactively declared rebellion. In other words: either the revolution, or welcome to Belarus, or even Turkmenistan!

The fleeting of the revolutionary situation follows from its acuteness. The stronger the intensity of passions, the shorter it is. Events will develop according to the scheme: injection, climax, decline. Moreover, before the climax, time works against the current government, and then - on it. The moment of culmination is the most favorable for changing the regime. Such dynamics is due to the fact that the parties to the confrontation have different resources at the disposal: in power - long -term, in protesters - fleeting. The authorities have money and administrative levers, albeit ineffective, but still states. Civil society has an information advantage, confidence in their own rightness, and most importantly - the energy of fair indignation.

The time factor is the main thing that the participants in the process should take into account. The authorities missed the moment when it was still possible to suppress a protest in the bud, not to allow events to get out of control. Now the tactics of power are to wait until the protest is exhausted by its resources and exhale. Sooner or later, people will get tired, the crowds will go home. Protest energy, having received a way out in rallies and speeches, will resolve. Leaders are dismissed. Not enough finance.

Therefore, it is important for the leaders of protest not to miss the moment of climax, when the power is most vulnerable. The climax, apparently, will come in March, immediately after the presidential election, when it becomes clear to everyone: Putin remains. As in December, the shock from the fact that the miracle did not take place will take people to the streets with the maximum intensity of energy. At this moment, fateful decisions will be made.

Consider different scenarios. The first of them: the nerves cannot withstand in power or a random failure occurs - and blood shed. Or will there be hard acceleration using special equipment. Or they will arrest the leaders of protest. This is the worst option for the authorities. The troops will not shoot the people, the police will run away, and the crowd will demolish power. Judging by the behavior of the authorities on December 10, the Kremlin is perfectly understood.

The second option: the authorities will take the crowd with great. The square will be surrounded by complacency, naked cops, and everything will be decorous and noble, like December 10. The people will stand in the evening will disperse. From this moment, the protest energy will begin to decline. Less and fewer people will gather for subsequent shares. After some time, apathy will come again, the protest is marginalized, the authorities will use its long -term resources. The revolution will not take place.

The third option. At the time of the climax, the leaders will take a step without which no revolution is impossible: they will declare the current power illegitimate and offer a real alternative. The emergence of a parallel center of power is the necessary stage of any revolution. In 1917, the Provisional Government was opposed by Coaters. In the 91st Union Center, the structures of the Russian Federation opposed. What can the Kremlin contrast people gathered in the square?

Here is one of the possible options for discussion.

It is already clear today that the consensus of representatives of all protest movements is the requirement of re -election. In order for this requirement to become truly revolutionary, there is only one step left - to abandon the unrealistic hopes that re -election organizes power, and instead to declare and hold new elections by the forces of civil society itself, contrary to power. For these purposes, a temporary body - the People’s Electoral Committee should be created by the name of those gathered in the square. He should have only one narrow function - holding new honest elections of parliament and president without the participation of official structures. Naturally, the current government will immediately declare this venture illegal and anti -constitutional, but will hardly decide on the use of force.

A narrow political task will allow to maintain unity among leaders of protest, which are already torn apart today with a clash of ambitions. New elections are the only thing that unites them. What is the support of each of them among the people - right or left, liberals or patriots - will just be decided in the elections, and after they are allowed to television. In the meantime, all this should be put aside.

In other words, the protest against what happened in the past will be replaced by a clear political task directed to the future. Instead of the requirements for the authorities to commit something impossible for her (which, by the way, automatically implies her legitimacy) will appear a roadmap to her complete delegation. The moment of climax will not be missed. After proclaiming the date of new elections, people can calmly diverge home. From that moment in the country, the obligatory stage of the revolution will come - dual power.

Technically organizing elections without state participation is not such a difficult task. For this, folk election committees must be created in every district. An honest vote and transparent counting will be no more difficult to ensure than tracking violations in the elections organized by the authorities.

Perhaps this is not the only option for the development of the situation. The creativity of the awakened masses, multiplied by the Internet resources, knows no boundaries. One thing is clear: if you miss the moment, to allow the authorities to saddle a wave of protest and lull society by promises of reforms, it will not pass even a year, as today's events from the failed revolution will turn into an unsuccessful attempt to rebellion, perfect by a group of traitors and renegades.