Translated material
December whirlwinds
This wave has RECOVERED.
Perhaps only Churov’s crumpled beard will remain lying on the sand as a trophy. In order not to disgrace, not to compromise the elections in March. The beard has come unglued... There will be no other trophies.
Elections to the State Duma will not be cancelled.
Accordingly, there will be no new elections.
The presidential elections will go “according to plan” - in March, with registered candidates.
Accordingly, with difficulty, maybe in the second round, but DOOMED TO VICTORY - Mister Putin. An honest victory, with the most accurate vote counting. Simply - in the absence of another popular candidate. To this we must also add that 68-year-old Zyuganov and 66-year-old Zhirinovsky obviously would NOT WANT to take responsibility for “this country”; their will to power is zero, and the instinct of self-preservation (and enrichment) is not at all at zero. They will behave accordingly. Only he himself knows whether Prokhorov SERIOUSLY wants to be a prez. We won't know.
So, by the method of elimination we get - “old Pu”.
Of course, if and only if the elections are not canceled (postponed).
WHY did the December wave break and roll back?
ABOUT WHAT did it crash, about some kind of “cliff” - it seemed like there was no power at all?
Timakova spoke “on behalf of the authorities”...
So - it seems like a bare field.
And from Sakharov to the Kremlin it’s just a stone’s throw...
The last inch. ONE more rally... God loves the trinity... “It is close, the moment of victory is close! Hooray ! We break; The Swedes are bending! O glorious hour, oh glorious view! Another pressure and the enemy flees.”
The enemy may have been ready to run.
Yes, THERE WAS NOBODY TO BREAK. AND - NO WHERE.
December 10 – 25 thousand (or 50,000?). December 24 – 50,000 (or 70,000). Third strike – 100,000 (150,000) and...
THERE WILL BE NO THIRD STRIKE.
Instead, there will be the usual 31st ritual on Triumfalnaya (what an evil irony in the name). Well, he will gather more actors than usual, but the play is the same “I came to say what they don’t let me say - but I have nothing more to say...”.
What's the big deal?
Why did the organizers, through the mouth of Nemtsov, “take a break” at the height of the battle until February! That is, being at the very crest of the wave, they publicly announced: WE TURN UP AND LEAVE.
Underpants ? Provocateurs? Agents of Surkov? “How much did they pay you, Judas”?
No.
Not cowards. Not provocateurs. Not agents.
ADEQUATE PEOPLE.
They knew, they saw from their rostrum - the third rally could NOT be assembled. That is, collecting is not a trick. But not only will there not be a geometric progression UP, but there will be a sharp CRASH. Not only will there not be 100-150-200,000 (and ONLY THIS could now be considered a SUCCESS!). No, you won’t get even 10-15,000. And WHAT thousands! The human material wouldn't be the same at all.
The second freshness is professional troublemakers, mountain nuts, democrats... All the things from which they FLYED AWAY on December 10, when the vigorous middle class collapsed. And now - instead of a fresh middle class - we return to the old, disgusted party. Not a RALLY - but again a get-together! Creepy...
Therefore - and only for this reason, in order not to lose face - the meeting was moved back to February. When a new powerful reason appears - the presidential campaign. When people are lifted by the hair by the feeling: “How?! PUTIN – for another 6 years?!! Again, perhaps, it will be possible to raise a hundred thousand for this cause. Or maybe it won’t succeed. Time moves quickly and changes quickly. Anything can happen in February.
But the December impulse has ended. Didn't convert to anything specific. Except for one thing - a clear feeling that the government is WEAK and will NEVER RISK TO USE FORCE. Everyone saw it. This is an important feeling. He won't be forgotten anymore.
The king is naked. And at the same time - not Apollo at all.
But no one dared to go through the unlocked Spassky Gate. That is, without metaphors - continue to hit the same point: the re-voting of the Duma and the postponement of the presidential ones. This would mean the fall of the Kremlin wall. Nobody agreed to this. The slogan, of course, has not been removed, but no one can and will not PRESSURE it. And by February this slogan is no longer relevant.
Why ?
The first reason is obvious - there is no Leader. Even at a rally. Not to mention the “rest of Russia”.
The lower classes don't want it. The top brass can't.
Is this a Revolution? No. Eternal stalemate - mutual impotence.
A trifle is missing, the third ingredient - ORGANIZING WILL. The author of the formula about “lower” and “higher” forgot to mention HIMSELF in it. And your organization. (although in other works he described in detail how to organize an organization).
“We didn’t create a scandal; we lacked the Leader.”
The scattered cubes did not fit into the puzzle. So they remained in a small group in the square.
It won’t work out on its own. And there is NO ONE to fold.
NOT ONE opposition politician – including the “Navalny phenomenon” – has real mass support. Some are whistled at, others are tolerated, but idols are not. No one is chanting “Na-valny! On-val-nyy! And in 1991 they chanted “Yeltsin! Yeltsin!
So what’s the bottom line - we’ll throw away the power, but we don’t need a new one at all?
Anarchy is the mother of order, goodbye to the Bronze Horseman, hello to the Headless Horseman...
So what?
No. People are somehow not inspired by this. And another option is not visible.
The second reason is a little less obvious, but much more important. No REAL motivation. THIS Birnam Forest will not perform a miracle - it will not move towards Dunsinane Castle. People DO NOT WANT THE COLLAPSE of power. More precisely, they don’t want to PAY for it. It's too expensive.
The great victory of the Decembrists - SANE people came. His Majesty is middle class.
The great defeat of the Decembrists - SANE people came. His Majesty is middle class.
People who HAVE SOMETHING TO LOSE! And I DON’T WANT to lose.
People - once again - SANITY. They are used to the fact that every product has a PRICE.
They are offended by the boorish government (and “counting stupid ballots” is just an excuse, a minor last straw...). Are they tired of Putin, do they despise Medvedev? Yes. Are they sick of Soviet TV? Exactly.
And what ? Is this enough for what?
In order to come? Yes. Scream, laugh, whistle, joke? Oh yes.
Listen to Bykov-Akunin and “Ksyukha”? Yes, it's cool.
But organizing a Revolution, even a peaceful, bloodless one, is WEAK?!
Still not weak! Look for RRAMS in another meadow! And here – NOT SRAMS! Not gorpsikha, not demshiza...
For such a product - irritation against the authorities - to pay SUCH a price?!
Of course, they will not vote for Putin. They may still go to protests. Like their class brothers - in the EU, the USA - they don’t vote for disrespected politicians and go to rallies. And that's all. Their entire repertoire. The days of the HEROIC middle class in the West are long gone. But we haven’t even started.
In 1991 these people (and their parents) had NOTHING. Except for the Zhiguli and the apartment. There is nothing to lose, but you can gain anything.
Now they have a business. Or securities. Or the deposits are not even wooden at all! - in banks.
The rally didn’t give them all this. AND DO NOT TAKE THE RALLY AWAY!
Lose... No, just RISK it all?!
After all, everyone understands that we are talking about the Revolution. About the collapse of the existing System. About its change in collapse mode.
This means the business freezes. This means that securities lose all value. This means that the property is immovable. This means the job is in doubt. This means that dollars are very valuable, but banks are unreliable.
The middle class doesn't need to CHEW it.
And all this - to pay for the Festival of Disobedience?!
They also have much more serious claims against the authorities - bribes, kickbacks, lawlessness. Yes, THIS IS REAL. But they are sane, to their misfortune... And if not in words, then in their souls, they know that with a change of power and “fair elections”, bribes and lawlessness, alas, will not evaporate... They were there in the 1990s (and even and how!), they exist in Ukraine - after the Revolution. No, maybe someday it will get easier, but a Miracle will definitely not happen.
So what is the REAL price of the holiday?
Exactly what they paid.
Go out and make some noise, show yourself, poke the authorities under the Kremlin. “Do you respect me? Here... And I do the same for you!
We HAVE ACHIEVE THIS.
And all this without risking ANYTHING.
Without disrupting not only “your whole life,” but even the New Year’s Eve celebration!
This is the FORMAL reason for the cancellation of the Revolution.
“The New Year is coming, Happy New Year, Happy New Happiness!”
And Revolutions-with-all-the-conveniences DO NOT HAPPEN. And it won't.
Between “Constitution” and “stellate sturgeon with horseradish”, people choose sevruzhin. Between the third meeting and Olivier salad - CHOOSE A SALAD. But when eating a salad, you can talk about a rally. This is better than the other way around!
The organizers of the rally are also sane. They understood this. And the third rally was cancelled. Which means we LOST THE PACE. This means we missed the ghost of Victory.
It was not possible to disrupt the presidential campaign. She will go at her own pace, and by February you will no longer be able to stop her.
Does this mean that “the authorities have won?”
If the government is a complete fool, then it has the right to think so...
If it’s not completely ROUND, then you don’t have the right.
They don't like power. They tolerate it simply because “someone” has to sit “with a suitcase.”
But - no faith, no hope. Let's keep quiet about everything else - otherwise you'll throw up...
Unfulfilled power... Oh yes Victory!
And ahead, everyone says with one voice, is a year of crisis.
No, it’s not “calculating grievances” that await here. The votes will be counted fairly.
But the standard of living – very likely – could REALLY FALL.
And if legitimacy is at zero, the standard of living is falling, then the Great Gloomy Mute - the people - may wake up. The lower classes, that is.
If the well-fed and angry are added to the hungry and angry... (And “hunger” today has a completely different meaning than it did in 1932 and is not at all the same as in 1991, but such a concept exists, it may well return, say, as “survival on the edge "...).
If all this happens, then the demand from the UNLOVED AUTHORITY could be TERRIBLE. So that neither Kudrin, nor Ryzhkov, nor Navalny himself WILL be able to protect the authorities (even if they want to). And the FSB-FSO-MVD, and Bombs-tanks-missiles will not save you in any way. Yes, NOBODY would risk using force and then sit comfortably directly on a bayonet.
And this is only 2012.
But according to the law, the Duma is elected until 2016, and Putin will be elected until 2018!
This is the victory of the Government...
And one last thing.
About the bony hand of the World Bourgeoisie.
I don’t know what McCain or Hillary personally thinks there...
But it is obvious that the fall of power in Russia is a NIGHTMARE for the USA, for NATO, for the EU. A NIGHTMARE – 10,000 times worse than Iran. Simply - by the number of warheads. Not to mention the economic shocks so necessary for a modern economy...
Just as the collapse of the USSR was a NIGHTMARE for the West, so the collapse of power in Russia would be an even worse nightmare...
Yes, the “West” is not united, there are different groups of influence, etc. But the governments and intelligence services of these governments are certainly asleep and see one thing: a STABLE Russia.
What will happen to the Motherland and to us?
Breaking cannot be tolerated.
Who will put the historical dash and where?
NOBODY knows this.
The system is broken. The process has begun. Where?.. In any case, the pregnancy cannot be terminated and “it will not resolve on its own.”
In its FREE FALL, power latched onto the Christmas tree - and hung on it like a gingerbread Kremlin...
But the December fairy tale is told peacefully.