Second in twenty years

President changed in unrecognized Transnistria

On December 25, the second round of presidential elections took place in the unrecognized republic of Transnistria. It was attended by former and current speakers of parliament: Yevgeny Shevchuk and Anatoly Kaminsky. Shevchuk was declared the winner: according to the Central Election Commission, he received about 74 percent of the votes. Kaminsky, who was openly supported by Moscow in the elections, scored much less - about 20 percent. The current president, Igor Smirnov, who led the republic for 20 years, was unable to retain the presidency this time: he dropped out of the race in the first round.

Now opposition from the losers could hinder Shevchuk’s presidency. There is no point in writing them off. Both - Moscow's favorite and the president, who still retains his powers - could, if desired, at least make it very difficult for the winner to come to power.

One can recall the recent elections in South Ossetia. Opposition candidate Alla Dzhioeva won there , but she was never able to take the presidency: the authorities, acting at the request of the losing candidate (the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Anatoly Bibilov , who enjoyed support in the Russian leadership), annulled the election results. Dzhioeva, in response, brought her supporters to the “Maidan” and forced the authorities to make some concessions (in particular, the oppositionist was allowed to participate in repeat elections). But she was never able to defend her victory.

In Transnistria, the situation seems to be favorable for the winner so far. Kaminsky’s election headquarters admitted defeat even before the official voting results were announced (when only preliminary data was known, indicating that Shevchuk was winning by a large margin). “The gap between the competitors is significant, which allows us to talk about defeat in the second round of elections. We took an honorable second place,” stated headquarters representative Sergei Melnichenko.

Kaminsky himself stated that “the entire administrative resource was working against him,” but still recognized Shevchuk’s victory. The speaker’s campaign headquarters, commenting on the situation, suggested that they would not challenge the voting results.

As for Igor Smirnov , even after his defeat in the first round he tried to annul the voting results (by filing a corresponding complaint with the CEC). The attempt failed: in order to revise the election results, the influence of the president, whom Moscow had effectively put an end to, was clearly not enough. The outgoing president, of course, had other options: Smirnov’s supporters, for example, suggested that he introduce a state of emergency in Transnistria (at the same time declaring that the republic was threatened by a “coup”).

Smirnov, however, did not agree to this. An attempt to retain power by force would actually be a challenge to Moscow, which has recently repeatedly made it clear that it no longer wants to see Smirnov in the presidential chair. Having tried to run for a new term, the current president has already faced a criminal case brought against his son (in Russia he was accused of stealing humanitarian aid sent to the republic), comments from Gennady Onishchenko (who stated that his department has questions about the quality of Pridnestrovian alcohol ) and the removal of her daughter-in-law from the State Duma elections (she was accused of having triple citizenship - she herself stated that she only had a Russian passport). Shortly before the first round of elections , Kommersant wrote that the Russian side, in the event of Smirnov’s victory, had prepared other measures of influence that could affect both the president himself and the republic as a whole (among other things, the “freezing of Transnistria’s correspondent accounts in Russian banks” were mentioned) and summoning Smirnov Sr. to a “conversation” regarding the criminal case of his son).

It is obvious that in this confrontation the president, who turns out to be objectionable to the Russian leadership, will sooner or later lose. He probably already understood this. There have been no signs recently that Smirnov is ready to continue fighting for the presidency. As it became known, the outgoing president did not even participate in voting in the second round of elections.

However, the winner of the election, apparently not wanting to tempt fate, plans to hold the inauguration quickly. The elected president, as reported by the Central Election Commission, can take office within 30 days. Shevchuk himself, however, has already announced that he intends to take the presidency before the new year.

Yevgeny Shevchuk is a local native and has several higher educations (among other things, he graduated from the Transnistrian State University, the Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia and the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine). In the 1990s he worked in the police. Later he went into business: he worked in the largest financial and industrial group in Transnistria, Sheriff (which owns supermarkets, gas stations, a publishing house, and is also the owner of a cognac factory, a bakery and an oil depot).

From 2006 to 2010, Shevchuk was the leader of the Renewal party (which is also associated with the aforementioned Sheriff group). Around the same period, he served as speaker of the Transnistrian parliament (2005-2009). He lost both positions after a conflict with Igor Smirnov. In 2009, deputies led by Shevchuk tried to amend the constitution to strengthen the power of parliament. However, faced with resistance from the president and public organizations loyal to him (who in response began collecting signatures for the dissolution of parliament), the deputies withdrew the bill. Shevchuk resigned from the post of speaker, and was soon removed from the post of chairman of Obnovlenye (the press regarded the latter as a consequence of the fact that businessmen supporting the party, after some disagreements with the Transnistrian authorities, again found a common language with it).

With the departure of Shevchuk, both the post of speaker of parliament and the place of leader of the Renewal party went to Anatoly Kaminsky. Considering that the party had previously entered into a cooperation agreement with United Russia , its leader could well have counted on Moscow to support his candidacy in the elections. And so it happened. First, State Duma deputies from United Russia Sergei Markov and Maxim Mishchenko spoke in favor of Kaminsky. also got involved Then the head of the Russian Presidential Administration , Sergei Naryshkin, . He stated that Kaminsky “could be a worthy candidate” and that his party’s program was “real and concrete” (regarding Smirnov, Naryshkin said that his attempt to run for a new term was a “wrong step”).

By and large, the choice between Kaminsky and Shevchuk is not critical for Russia. As in the elections in South Ossetia or Abkhazia, this is a choice between pro-Russian candidates (there are simply no others in the republics dependent on Russia). In fact, Moscow has already made it clear that they are not upset by Kaminsky’s defeat and that they are quite happy with the upcoming departure of Smirnov, who has fallen out of favor. “The main task has been solved: Smirnov is no longer president,” a high-ranking interlocutor in the Russian Foreign Ministry said in an interview with Kommersant. “In this situation, we don’t care who exactly will be elected as the next leader of the republic, Shevchuk or Kaminsky.”

Nevertheless, the fact remains: recently, Moscow’s second favorite (first in South Ossetia, then in Transnistria) has suffered defeat in the elections. Bibilov lost in South Ossetia with a difference of more than 15 percent; in Transnistria, Kaminsky’s gap from the winner was even greater - more than 50 percent. In this situation, you can try to push through your favorite (as happened, for example, in Abkhazia in 2004), persuade the winner to give up victory (as happened recently in South Ossetia) or simply recognize the winner. Judging by the reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry and Kaminsky’s refusal to continue fighting, the Russian side seems to be choosing the latter this time.

Mikhail Tishchenko

Second in twenty years

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Lenta.ru: former USSR: Second in twenty years