Translated material
Do not miss the opportunity
The information about the alleged readiness of 48 percent of potential voters, thrown up last week, can vote on March 4 for Mr. Putin can only indicate one thing - the Kremlin decided to limit the presidential election in one round. True, even before that it was bad to believe that those responsible in power for the presidential campaign, and Putin himself, allow some other options, except for a “crushing victory”. In opposition minds, on the contrary, hope for a second round does not fade away. Its appearance is associated with many objective reasons, among which the sensitive collapse after September 24 of the personal rating of the “main” applicant, and the splash of popular indignation, caused by the falsified results of the Duma elections, and the call of the hundred thousandth meeting on Sakharov Avenue not to give a single voice to Putin, and, finally, the wonderful idea of Andrei Andreyevich Piontkovsky about the “technical president”. This hope, if you abstract from the realities of political and social being in Russia, could, without any stretch, be considered feasible, but local features and specific customs of the powerful “elites” make it difficult to use, if not utopian.
The features and specifics are such that, for example, the same head of the VTsIOM, Mr. Fedorov, not afraid after the Churov, will pass through the “wizard”, declares, without blinking an eye, about the growing, contrary to mass protests, supporting the candidacy of Mr. Putin. And this trend, according to Fedorov, is so natural that it will retain the dynamics positive for the premiere in the coming month. Presumably, it will grow through the efforts of VTsIOM by March 4 percent to 55-60.
And why would it suddenly begin to strengthen the confidence of the population to this figure boring to a toothy gnashing? After all, even a month has not passed, as tens of thousands of citizens in Moscow and regions rally against arrogant posts in favor of United Russia, who put forward Mr. Putin as a presidential candidate, demanding political changes and punishment of those responsible for falsifications. But is there at least one requirement fulfilled, which would give reason to believe in Putin-2? Just a week ago, Putin at a government meeting said that the number of Russians, interrupting the poverty line from bread to kvass, remains at 26 percent. But did the millions of fellow citizens become more satisfied to live from the fact that after a few days the prime minister in his article in Izvestia had already said about only 10% of the muffing grief? Literally on the eve of the Fedor revelations, the Accounts Chamber voiced the fantastic figure of the ministries and departments of budget funds subordinate over the past year - more than 700 billion rubles. But did these 700 billion and other trillions, stolen from Russians over the past 12 years of diverse corrupt wickedness, the main boss of which all these years, Mr. Putin himself remained?
If Putin’s rating, according to Fedorov, has a strange feature to strive up when everything rolls down due to the complete moral decomposition of power and critically low quality control of the country, then we can easily prove that to achieve absolute support by the electorate, Mr. Putin does not get the Holodomor, a couple of technogenic disasters and the activation of terrorist activities throughout Russia.
The inexperienced mind of such sociological paradoxes cannot be understood, and common sense does not allow to take on faith. However, the Eurasian Dugin, who claims the transition of Mr. Surkov from the Presidential Administration to the Government, which FOM and VTsIOM, which is controlled by the Kremlin, has long been used there as instruments of the construction of Russian society, unexpectedly helps to understand this phantasmagoria in an unexpected way. By the way, the “measurements” of the FOM also show ultra -high 52% in favor of Putin, while Levada -Center gives him only 36%.
The science fiction of VTsIOM is good only for the propaganda justification for the victory in the first round, but it can not serve the customer with the starting point in choosing a strategy for achieving it. To rely on the data of VTsIOM is to destroy the matter, and therefore the Kremlin and Churovskiy wizards will build their behavior based on more realistic 30 percent, around which the rating of their “client” balances. In this situation, you will have to take “adequate measures” already in the first round so as not to publicly humiliate the authority of the “national leader”, even if he is guaranteed a passage to the second round. But when taking “adequate measures” in the first round, it is technologically difficult, and it is not advisable to use administrative and Churovsky resources half or a quarter to amuse the pride of the “employer” and have a decent picture of interest for the second round. This means that the topic of the "presidency" will be forced to close on March 4, making maximum efforts. These guys have too much at the stake, and they simply cannot afford to play honestly.
The task of the opposition, given the objective impossibility for the Kremlin to provide Mr. Putin with a pure victory, direct the main efforts to organize the work to carry out the control of the elections and the creation of a single center for collecting protocols of precinct election commissions and an alternative calculation of votes. Technically, it is quite solved. The work on the organization of control, in addition to the purely purely pragmatic goals, has a great moral meaning - thousands of citizens voluntarily work on restoring order in their own house, learning to be the owners in it. Yes, and disputes about whether or not non -systemic politicians and civilian activists negotiations with the authorities become irrelevant, since the representatives of opposition parties in the Duma - legislative power - will need to negotiate the forms of interaction and coordinate all the work to counteract falsification. Consultations with the Duma opposition will be important and appropriate further.
In the upcoming elections, a unique opportunity opens up to grab the hand over the hand, having finished at once with the myth of Putin's invincibility and inflicting a tangible blow to his and the detriment of intentions to rule forever. If the opposition leaders miss this opportunity, preferring the organizational work and meaningful actions of political crackling and empty disputes at gatherings and rallies, it means that the leaders and the low price of their claims are at the head of the process of change, which just begins, is worth a little.