Translated material
Signs of power
Grigory Yavlinsky is very likely not to reach the presidential election as a candidate - a lot of marriage in signatures for the candidate. Signatures are generally a reliable testing tool for managing the political process. The removal of Yavlinsky is beneficial to the second “liberal from power” - Prokhorov.
The prohibitive phenomenon of Russian political life is a passive suffrage (this is when you are elected, active - when you choose) is not the right for everyone. In the yard, the presidential elections and at the stage of collection of signatures almost eliminated two candidates at once - the Irkutsk governor Dmitry Mezentsev and a veteran of Russian politics, the leader of the Yabloko party Grigory Yavlinsky.
In both, the Central Election Commission found an excess of permissible marriage in signatures submitted for potential candidates. According to the law, out of 2 million marriage signatures - that is, signature sheets with violations, pure “fakes” in the form of non -existent citizens and so on - should be no more than five percent. However, Yavlinsky immediately found 23 percent of the marriage from the Tsikovskaya sample. The Central Election Commission took away 200 thousand signatures - randomly, after the failure of the audit, he will conduct another one, and if it reveals more than 5 percent of the marriage, it will remove candidates from the elected “race”.
Nothing personal is only a business. Both candidates are not without reason to be considered technical candidates, designed to legitimize the election campaign to legitimize their participation. The recovered from the Mesentsev (a person, without a doubt, is an influential and even once close to the current prime minister) and suddenly returned to Yabloko on the eve of the Duma elections Yavlinsky - well, what else to call them? Such a sauce for the triumphal victory of Vladimir Putin.
Mezentsev threatens the very status of a technical candidate and - no less important - falsifications in the elections to the State Duma. He is a living proof of the principle of "we do not have untouchables." In other words: live political technology of the cheapest damage. To whom this can impress is a big question, most likely the electoral significance of Mesentsev will not have any.
Another thing is Yavlinsky. The flesh from the flesh of the "Yabloko", a person known to the whole country and even by his hero (option - anti -hero) of the capital's venue rallies. According to the Levada Center, almost 40 percent of the Academician Sakharov Avenue spoke for Yabloko. It is they who addressed the message with the potential removal of the candidate - you guys are not the whole country.
In addition, the “Bolotnaya-Sakharovsky” electorate, no matter how much it may be, is seriously claimed by another candidate from the authorities (the voter is not proposed in the current presidential elections)-Mikhail Prokhorov.
The removal of Yavlinsky, if this will happen objectively, works in his favor. The ratings of both candidates at the level of status (2-3-4 percent), but both exist on the “liberal” flank. The consolidation of this electorate can give “decent” 5-10 percent of the election results.
Other skeptics say that it is impossible to collect 2 million signatures technically, and there is no need. A month and a half, many regions. The army should work for the candidate (even several armies - up to 50 thousand) of signature collectors and there is such a pleasure about a dozen million dollars. Therefore, the process does not turn into the actual “collection of signatures”, but into a kind of casting - which of the potential candidates will be recognized as suitable for the participation of elections in the Kremlin (or there the White House), and who will be extracted.
As a result, the voter is offered a menu from predetermined dishes, a kind of business lunch of candidates. The rest are sent home.
This kind of selection system is inevitable, because it is simply impossible to register everyone in a row. However, the fictitious process is in some way upset. What was bad Yavlinsky from the point of view of the authorities? Yes, nothing, it is completely loyal, and its potential electorate is completely protest. He was even needed-for the consolidation of those “rebellious citizens” that they will still get to the elected sites.
“Cut off” on the signatures and the electorate is not sprayed, and there are no voting options at all. Putin and a limited number of "anti-pounds" remains. If indeed in the “Kremlin test tube” they again decided to grow some “liberals”, then Prokhorov really becomes a favorite. The presidential elections “unsubscribe” him a protest anti -Putin “democratic” electorate, and then you can already build a party.
In this context, Yavlinsky seems to be a played figure - he cannot actually consolidate any democrats. For this, the signatures were invented - not for the exam for “political maturity”, but for artificial selection of suitable “managed democracy” for the needs of “controlled democracy”.