In the coming days, the CEC’s verdict will become known: registration of candidates who submitted signatures. The quality and authenticity of the signatures have nothing to do with it. Putin will personally resolve this issue.
My forecast is this: Prokhorov will be registered, but Yavlinsky will not. Why?
We learned from the New Times that on the evening of December 9, Putin called Prokhorov and invited him to run for president.
The 9th was just the last day to submit an application for registration. In the evening, the CEC gave the names of everyone who registered. Prokhorov was not among them.
He announced his nomination on the 12th - a day after the rally on Bolotnaya. Immediately after this, the Central Election Commission stated that Prokhorov’s notification of his desire to run was somehow suddenly “found.”
To those who, even after this, doubt that Prokhorov is Putin’s puppet, the candidate explained yesterday that he was “ready to join the winning team” (!) Why yesterday?
Yesterday, the verification of selected signatures reached the 50% mark. This point has important psychological significance. Yesterday, the Central Election Commission made its first leak to Kommersant with a hint about a possible refusal to Yavlinsky. Therefore, just yesterday it was important for the oligarch to remind Putin of his impeccable loyalty.
Preparations for Yavlinsky's removal began, of course, much earlier. To the surprise of even the members of the Central Election Commission, members of Moscow PECs and TECs were asked to check his signatures - precisely those who clashed with observers from YABLOKO on December 4. They were irreconcilable with falsifiers - unlike most of the observers from other parties, who agreed to formalize their referrals to the PECs for people from councils and prefectures.
The people checking signatures for Yavlinsky are the people on the “Churov list” - current and future. It is clear that their hatred of YABLOKO observers must develop into ferocious mercilessness towards signatures for Yavlinsky.
Why does Putin want to remove Yavlinsky from the elections? Three answers:
1. Independent Yavlinsky will take away votes from the controlled Prokhorov, whom Putin appointed as a candidate for liberals and democrats,
2. Observers from YABLOKO will work to intensify the scandal in connection with the falsification of the presidential elections, and Prokhorov will be assigned deaf-blind observers who will work to reduce the intensity of the scandal,
3. Punishment of YABLOKO, which harshly criticizes Putin, exposes real observers, and did not recognize the results of the Duma elections.
The answer to the question of whether these elections will be fair will follow this week. Yavlinsky's removal from the elections will serve as a signal and a prologue to the chaos of March 4th.