2012 will be the year of creating a new model of the world.

During 2011, many theses that were considered unshakable were questioned. The “Arab Spring” demolished (and will demolish) several dictators who ruled their countries for the last 30-40 years. The earthquake in Japan has once again raised questions about the safety of nuclear energy. Hopes for a quick recovery from the crisis were dashed by the European crisis, stagnation in the United States and slowing growth even in China and India. It has now become clear that even a developed country can default and that there are no absolutely risk-free assets. The process of balancing the global economy and large-scale reassessment of risks has begun. This process is accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth and a stressed state of the global financial system.

The past year was a turning point for Russia as well. Despite high oil prices, GDP growth rates of 6–7% per year have become an elusive dream, and 4% seems high. But inflation came close to 6% - for the first time in 20 years. Capital outflow has again become the norm: the situation in global financial institutions is now such that it will take a long time to wait for a reverse movement. The influx of capital into Russia was at the peak of the global financial bubble, which is now deflating, and this will take more than one year. Against this background, real interest rates on bank deposits again, as in 2009, became positive, and quite high. There are serious changes in the macroeconomic model that do not provide opportunities for easy extension of the existence of uncompetitive businesses.

But for the first time in 20 years, saving is becoming profitable. Considering that generations are approaching retirement age, having worked for the most part after the collapse of the Soviet Union and expecting little from the official pension system, this change is very welcome. The growth of domestic savings can, if not replace, but at least largely compensate for the lack of capital inflow. But this money will only have to be used on projects with a positive return on capital. So whether we like it or not, the model of economic growth in Russia is gradually changing along with the global model. And 2011 was the first year when these changes began to be clearly visible. In 2012, they will become even more obvious. During 2011, many theses that were considered unshakable were called into question. The “Arab Spring” demolished (and will demolish) several dictators who ruled their countries for the last 30-40 years. The earthquake in Japan has once again raised questions about the safety of nuclear energy. Hopes for a quick recovery from the crisis were dashed by the European crisis, stagnation in the United States and slowing growth even in China and India. It has now become clear that even a developed country can default and that there are no absolutely risk-free assets. The process of balancing the global economy and large-scale reassessment of risks has begun. This process is accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth and a stressed state of the global financial system.

At the end of 2011, significant changes occurred in the political sphere. Apathy gave way to, if not stormy, but rather persistent protest. The trigger was castling within the tandem, which also began to demonstrate that these were not two different people, but practically a single whole. A motley crowd of Protestants, uniting liberals, nationalists and “communists,” came to the square. This crowd does not have any kind of unified pro agenda, which makes the situation very unstable. But this crowd has a clear “against” agenda: they are against the theft of votes in elections. It is the desire to return the stolen voice that makes this crowd so stubborn. And it is no longer possible to ignore this in the presidential elections and in general when forming the political agenda for the next cycle.

Both political and financial crises develop approximately according to the same scenario. They always arise unexpectedly: formally, all external factors look unchanged since yesterday, but despite this, the situation begins to change dramatically. Constant slow changes leading to destabilization of the system reach a critical mass and an explosion occurs. But an explosion is still just an explosion, and it is not clear what the landscape will be like after, whether it will change radically or whether the crater will be quickly leveled. Until 2011, everyone lived with the hope that a return to the past was possible. But now it is clear that the changes will be permanent, but what the new world will be like and how long the turbulence will be felt on the way to a new equilibrium is still far from clear. 2012 will be a turning point year, not so much in the sense of breaking the old model, but in the sense of creating a new one. This makes the year not only difficult, but also interesting.

Consequences of the explosion