Bashar Assad: the path from the mountain

Bashar Assad: the path from the mountain. Russia and China blocked the second UN Security Council resolution on Syria. Voting at the UN took place the day after the troops of Bashar al -Assad fired from the mortars city of Homs, where more than 300 people died. Meanwhile, the suburbs of Damascus more and more recall the suburbs of tripods by half -year ago: here almost every day there are clashes of rebel forces with the army of the regime. Whether the veto of Russia and China will help survive the ruling Syrian clan-the New Times found out on the eve of the Saturday voting to the UN from New York, there were reports that the text of the Syria resolution prepared by the Arabic Liga (LAG) finally managed to coordinate. This happened after from it, at the request of Russia and China, two points were excluded-about the resignation of Assad within 15 days and the transfer of the authorities to Vice President Faruk Sharaa, as well as about the embargo for the supply of weapons to Damascus. But judging by the fact that the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Seregy Lavrov on Friday warned against setting a resolution on the vote, not everyone managed to agree on. The fact that the Syrian question would be put on the vote only at 7 a.m. on Saturday-after the Friday bombing of Homs, which resulted in numerous victims, the lag came to the conclusion that the issue can no longer be postponed. The veto of Russia and China for many on East River turned out to be a cold shower.

Moscow assesses the situation on the very big account. As a result of the overthrow of Muamar, Gaddafi, Rosoboronexport alone lost $ 4 billion due to unrealized weapons contracts. Today, Moscow does not have hopes either for the implementation of previous contracts in Libya, or to sign new ones. The head of Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaikin, said “Interfax” on February 2: “We are not building special illusions” * *The total losses of Russian companies in Libya amounted to $ 10 billion - see The New Times No. 9 of March 14, 2011. In response to the remark of The New Times, that Russia was in Livag It is in many ways to blame for itself - for too long hesitated in the choice between Gaddafi and the opposition, an official from the “profile” department of our Foreign Ministry literally exploded: “What are you carrying this! Firstly, contrary to the unspoken agreement to the UN, the French and the British did not lobbied Russia's commercial interests in front of the new Libyan authorities, and the Peenesians (the leadership of the transition National Council (PNS).-The New Times) did not fulfill the promises given to the president of the Russian Federation for Africa Mikhail Margelov. The New Times). And secondly, the diplomat continued, the situation in the post-Kaddafiev Libya itself remains so unsteady due to the ongoing “war of all” that even the donor countries are still refraining from the complete unlocking of the previous Kaddafi Avoirs and the transfer of funds to the new authorities: almost 18 billion of the Gaddafiev dollars “hang” in the West. The Libyan PNS is still insolvent.
Meanwhile, Assad Syria pays properly: the contract for the supply of 36 combat-combat aircraft Yak-130, signed at the beginning of this year, promises the Russian treasury $ 550 million. The same interlocutor-diplomat expressed confidence that the Assad was still far away and “we will have time to squeeze out all their money”: “When the Syrians arrived at the end of December“ on airplanes ”, ours in the joke of them. asked: "How much more will you last?" And they also jokingly answer: "There will be enough of us for the whole resource of your" yaks "."
A multi -way party
Is the Libyan Scenario possible in Syria? “No, a much more complex and multi -color batch is played out here,” says Turkish political scientist Mustafa Cardun (the surname has been changed at his request).
During the Libyan events, the UN resolution on the introduction of a useless zone played a turning point: Caddafi’s aviation lost the opportunity to make raids to the eastern regions of the country, but the rebels established channels for the supply of weapons and ammunition and gradually turned into a combat -ready army. In Syria, the insurgent “Free Army of Syria” (CAS), consisting of two-thirds of the former Sunnits of the regular army, is already operating against the Assad regime. Every day from Assad troops is deserted from 50 to 100 people.
On the other hand, Gaddafi was ready to stand to the last mainly his tribal of al-Kaddafa Warfal-about 150 thousand people, of which only 10 thousand were selected fighters. While the rear of Assad is 1.5 million alavites, which make up 8% of the Syria population, including the ruling clan, which has already managed to arm many Alawit villages. The UN has no solution to the problem of the Alawites. The Turkish expert considers the proposal of Israel to be resettled by the occupied Golan heights: “50-60 thousand can be resettled there, a million is unlikely.”
In addition, in Libya, no matter what they say, there was no real threat of the country's section. In Syria, where Kurdish separatism is as strong as in Iraq and Turkey, there is such a threat - which the West is also not enthusiastic.
“If Assad gives up to the election, the presidential post of Vice President Shara, as the Lag offered, and he will announce the moratorium on military operations-such a script will completely arrange everyone,” the Turkish interlocutor of The New Times is convinced.
Shadow players
In Libya, everything exploded after Tunisia and Egypt, where friendly Gaddafi regimes fell. There were no shadow players there. In Syria, Bashar Assad continues to enjoy the support of Iran, and not only the political - military instructors and units of the special forces of the Corps of the Guardians of the Iranian Revolution were sent to his aid: the rebels from SAS have already captivated ten. Tehran in this case not only fulfills an agreement on mutual assistance in case of crisis situations. Ayatolles do not want the regional strengthening of Turkey, whose Prime Minister Erdogan is playing at the Syrian Theater: by his personal order, Türkiye provided the territory for the headquarters and rear bases of SAS. Moreover, according to rumors, Erdogan is on constant connection with the commander of the units of SAS, Colonel Riyad al-Asad. Mustafa Kardun explains: “The ultimate goal of Ankara is to create a buffer zone between Turkey and Syria in case of falling the regime of Bashar al -Assad and the activation of Kurdish separatists in the region.”
Pale features
The Libyan opposition took shape on the territory of Libya and during the war with Gaddafi acted united. The Syrian National Council, which uses the support of the West and Turkey, claiming leadership in the opposition, consists mainly of emigrants. The head of the council-the 66-year-old Burkhan Galyun, Professor of the Sorbonne-makes almost all his statements from Istanbul and Ankara, which not all opponents of Assad like it. Moscow felt this by relying on another wing of the Syrian opposition - the “Popular Front for Changes and Liberation” led by Kadri Jamil. Unlike Gallun, Jamil agrees to the intermediary role of Russia. The problem, however, is that Jamil, like most of his associates, is a former communist with whom they are not ready to conduct business in the western capitals and Ankara. And the Syrian "Muslim brothers" do not see in him the leader of the opposition movement.
Separate and rule *
Gaddafi was too self -confident and did not take care of the ways of retreat in time. Assad takes care of. Americans and Europeans have already offered him to choose from options for voluntary exile, including Arab Emirates and the UK, where he once lived. The Syrian president is in no hurry to answer. He connects his main hopes with the “Latakia Plan” - the creation of the Alawit state in the territory of the Primorsky province of the same name. “In the last three to four months, 90% of the military and civilian goods arriving in Banias, Tartus and Latakia (sea ports in Syria.-The New Times) are not exported to the destination, but are ware out on the spot,” says Mustafa Cardun. “For what purpose?”
Abdel Halim Haddam, former Deputy Prime Minister Syria, who turned into opposition, expressed his thoughts the other day in an interview with the French Le Figaro, who turned into opposition: “The Assad clan a month ago began transporting heavy weapons to the Mediterranean coast, hiding them behind hills and heights.”
Does Assad understand what is doomed? "Maybe. But he does not want to run, nor give up, nor die, like Gaddafi. He wants to separate in extreme cases, ”Cardun is convinced.
But what about Russia with its Syrian contracts? “It will become the first country to support the Latakia Plan. If I did not support it, under the table. ”

The UN resolution requires the President of Syria:
● To free political prisoners, withdraw troops from cities, ● Officially allow peaceful rallies and demonstrations, ● Provide the mission of security guarantees and unhindered admission to any areas of the country, ● Provide the refugees with a quick and safe return to their native foci.
The largest Russian-Syrian contracts: the supply of Bastion coastal missile systems with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles Yakhont; 24 fighters MiG-29M/m2 and 8 divisions of the air defense systems “Bu M2E”.