The failed story

From the editor. Leonid Radzikhovsky sent the text to the editors of the RS. In this text, he, apparently, says goodbye to some “era”, tries to reconstruct a certain opportunity, which “was and not”. He already writes from a distance. And he wants to convince the reader that V. Surkov had some other scenario, and that everything could go differently ... I don’t know anything about the “script”, but I see how now, these days, “Paphos of Segregation” blooms in the networks. Chulpan Khamatova Obsistan. And meanwhile - no matter how today the surge of public expectations ends - we will have to live here and together. And so far it is not clear when and how some kind of general vision of the continuation is found. I decided to publish this text - as they said in Soviet journalism - as a "human document." - A.M.

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For all the banality of the comparison, you can’t say otherwise: the River of Time “Suddenly”, from December 4, sharply accelerated its current, desperately pierced, you won’t understand when it still enters the shores. And hardly the same.

Today it’s not that it is too early to “summarize the results”, but even describe the current that carries us is difficult.

The confusion of power before the first rally on Bolotnaya. The confusion of those who called the people to the street - and slightly balled when they saw how many people came out. The “leaders of the creative class”, which in two months, except for the Democryks “Putinavotskavka”, “Neboby Prost and Protest”, “Vysurkovskaya Propaganda” did not torment anything, literally not a single sane political demand. A conversation with the authorities at the level of “Ho-Ho, I will hang him like a child” ... Frantic-worshiping intellectuals explaining the crowd that a gray American wolf is sitting inside the “demobushka”. Hedly declared political reforms - you won’t understand, either the “Medvedev”, or the “Putin”, or the “tandem” ones. Now it is as if it is obvious that Putin will be elected by the president (and the voices will be counted honestly), but it is not at all obvious that it will be later - will they stuff the paste back into the tube, or will it continue to output without knowing where? .. Phase transition, bifurcation, rebooting with viruses ... "Sund random features - and you will see, the world is beautiful." To understand what features are random, and where are the strokes of the plan? And who will be washed?

“The wind howled; A blizzard has become. In an instant, the dark sky mixed with the snow sea. Everything disappeared. “Well, Barin,” the coachman shouted, “trouble, Buran!”

“Someday, historians from the torment of the murmur” in an attempt to portray all these bends of a living Yakimanka, flowing into a swamp. And much, as always, will disappear without a trace.

Therefore, it is important, yet it’s not too late, try to keep fluid details.

For example, the question is - then, no one foresaw an approaching Buran?

On the growing irritation of society, the non -systemic opposition tribe has long been. Too long ago, too loud, with too obvious personal interest. When their hundredth serious warning turned out to be a zilch, they stopped paying attention to screams. They themselves, as always, were not ready for anything - in their internal emigration they could not even create a “union of a sword and yell” and distribute the places of the firewalls and postmasters of the revolution ...

Well, and power? Blind and complacently and successful, as she should - “The husband will recognize the last”?

Or did they also foresee the "wall"?

I know, at least one plan of “warning of events” (probably there were others). He, since 2008, offered Putin and Medvedev V. Surkov - demonized by Demtusovka “Eiffel Vertical”.

As far as I understand, the idea of ​​Surkov was quite simple. He was just one of the first in the Kremlin to feel a few tough things - and gained intellectual wrappers to draw direct conclusions out of them.

The vertical and rating do not grow to the sky. Time cannot forever freeze the "perunel". The authorities need to change: the time to screw the nuts is time to unscrew the nuts.

All the art of politician is only to catch a wave of time with some intuition - and dive into it. To feel the same injection "yesterday was early, tomorrow it will be too late." Surkov felt the “wave of waves” long before she licked the sole - back in 2008, it would seem, at the very top of the vertical.

Why? "Elementary, Watson: Dialectics."

Over the years, in a cool shadow of the vertical, a new (or rather - the first in the history of Russia) mass middle class has grown. Back in the middle of the “zero”, Surkov in every possible way promoted the “creative class” label to designate these people. And, apparently, he considered the main achievement of “stability” exactly that this class nevertheless appeared in Russia not only as an exhibit with VDNH, but multiplied in millions of copies.

It is clear that in the form of gratitude to its "godfathers", the class experiences only a desire to try them for a tooth. "And our grandchildren at the good hour will supplant us from the world." For what they fought - they ran into it. Hegel lived, Hegel is alive, Hegel will live.

“Middle Class ideologists” call the vertical - “Bloody regime”. They assure that the class did not work out thanks to, but contrary to the vertical that he plays with a vertical in the game with a zero sum. A little strange: after all, there was no vertical - and there was no mass middle class. But when the vertical began to interfere with him, then he arose. This is a game with a zero sum, isn't it?

The more sane answer is that the class arose thanks to not a vertical, but a pipe. In many ways, this is undoubtedly so, but there are no contradictions with the previous answer. Low income tax rate, financial stability, at least some streamlining the rules of the game, etc. - This is still not a “naked pipe”, it is complementing her vertical.

But be that as it may, the time has come when the “Putin’s middle class” has become uncomfortable under the vertical (although he never found the replacement of the pipe-to the pipe).

In such a situation, conjure: “No, you are satisfied, only you yourself do not know”, “No, you must be grateful”, “No, we will continue to take care of you no worse than before” - only the people to amuse. Moreover, the fun promises to be angry ...

Based on these factors, Surkov proposed an understandable strategy: to accept what is inevitable (growth of the middle class and its self -esteem, social ambitions) and change that the Kremlin is able to change.

Namely: do not withstand the process of mitigation of “controlled democracy”, but to lead this process, to make it, in turn, “controlled”. Not for the final goals, but at least technologically. If EP and Putin are destined to descend from Olympus, lay straws in the form of other new parties.

It is clear that an angry suspicion appears here immediately (which goes to the prosecution) in the General’s Generation, cunning games. “Enough with the guided democracy and the Party of Broilery-Stylers! Feeling! At least we destroy the vertical - independently without your “guidelines”! And we will create new parties too - somehow ourselves! ”

Sounds beautiful.

But in practice, the emergence of parties a) responsible, sane B) having real social support B) ready to seriously compete for power - the main and insoluble problem of Russian political history, starting since 1990. “What we are not doing - the CPSU it turns out” was formulated by the former member of the Central Committee of the CPSU and the leader of the NDR Chernomyrdin party. Internal ossification, administrative frame of Korset, no free competition within the party itself - the same applies to everyone, from the Communists to the liberals. The opposite extreme is just “blurring into the mud”. Besides? Where are the two leaders of the Democrats (and nationalists) - there are three parties ... This, by the way, is clearly visible now. It would seem - by chance, wandering around the cold Moscow suddenly ran into Klondike - deposits of political gold right on the ground, under their feet. Well, well, well ... no matter how! Nothing. There is no organization, no slogans, no leaders. No development of the wealth of wealth, only in their viewing. Just two months? But on such days they are considered for a year.

No. The Russian democrats provided to themselves maintain either a state of rest-or a uniform-straight scandal, squabbles of all-one-all.

This is what democracy rests in practice. “That's the trouble, it’s so trouble/: everyone climbed into the Lord./ And in addition, not a single/ for himself a gentleman.”

In general, wherever you throw, it’s good everywhere.

Parties created from above are companies of cowards and caps, on official grunts.

The parties created from below are groups of single squabbles and hired / or "eccentric" supporters.

Classics - from Gogol to Ilf - spoke about this.

Surkov’s proposals were more modest: to act in the proposed conditions, "I have no other crazy people for you."

Namely: create a pool of two or three new parties compared in their capabilities (financial, organizational, PR) at least with the Communist Party or LDPR. These Atlanteans could, on the one hand, could set their shoulders under an inevitably spacing vertical, and on the other hand, gradually replace the vertical itself. That is, during the new cycle of parliamentary elections (2011), the majority of the Duma could consist of a real parliamentary bloc, the coalition of different parties. This is a fundamentally new geometry of political space - for a start, a building on Okhotny is on a scale.

Moreover. While the moral capitalization of Putin and EP is great, the Sanitary party would be allies. Not “on assignment”, but based on their political interests. In the case of reducing the capitalization of the EP, they can turn from allies into opponents of the authorities - but opponents of sane, "infected with state mentality." There is nothing terrible for the Kremlin. One way or another, it is not a collapse of power, but its smooth transformation.

Of course, this scheme is not mechanical. And not "pleasant in all respects" for the Kremlin. An example of the same “SR” shows what new parties can become for the authorities: a strip of nettle turns. But it's all about context. If a rigid system is preserved, then the action is equal to counteraction and the opposition lives on the principle of "all or nothing." The opposition within the vertical can either lick or bite. It cannot work - this is not provided for by the design.

The “Surkov plan” was just to abandon the “everything - nothing” matrix in order to seriously, and not “for military cunning”, abandon the “EP” monopoly and the one and a half -party system, where all the “other parties” play the role of “eating”, and when a change of happiness, they are thrown into yesterday's mare - as it should be yesterday's yard.

Putin's reaction is also interesting. Apparently, he proceeded from the fact that they are not looking for good from good, the descent “from the conquered peaks” is always more dangerous than the ascent. At the Valdai Forum, already in 2011, he repeated that ideally in the Duma there should be two parties, of which one is the ruling, the second is its opposition shadow. It is clear that this role was ideally suited for yesterday’s Communist Party, led by Zyuganov’s “eternally mature” - a kind of blooming secretary of the district committee of Kochetov’s novels or the series “Eternal Call” ...

Create not spoilers, not dummy, but parties, at least potentially capable of becoming partners of "EP" - why? “ER” is a partner for itself. You won’t find better. And you do not need to “strip” “straws” - you just need to stay at the top, do not give in to the top!

One way or another, Surkov’s plans for “growing worthy parties”, to put it mildly, did not meet understanding in 2008-10. Although those who wanted to “build parties” were - for example, Kudrin. But it did not bring happiness to them either.

No coalitions.

No pool of parties.

No weakening of the "EP", with its leading role.

In general, Russia is not a place for discussions.

And when it became obvious that the "EP" star rolled up, they still decided not to support it in batches - but replace the ONF. The benefit is obvious: the brand is changing, but the monopoly in the Duma may remain with EP. Well - they wanted the best ...

In early 2011, Surkov made another entry: the very laws on the elections of governors were worked out, a new law on parties was prepared. Now it is fashionable to say that these laws were introduced by Medvedev a) too late - “no one will buy” and b) too quickly, immediately after rallies - so the fear of power is clearly visible. Now, if the same laws and 5-6 months earlier - they would not be the price, and the whole process would go much more smoothly.

That's right. But the piquancy of the situation is that they were worked out just 5-6 months before December. And safely blocked. Firstly, because "Why for nothing to retreat, if you can hold on?" And, secondly, because it would mean real disagreements in the tandem - not at all stylistic.

As a result, the effect of these laws was completely lubricated.

And not only the PR, but also the real political effect.

The fact is that two different lines have already been outlined here.

If, by the December elections a) a strong right b) EP would have appeared) would keep a course for a coalition in the Duma B) liberal laws on the elections of governors and new parties were introduced, then all this drawn one trajectory.

The trajectory of managed liberal reforms, which aims to smoothly transition from the vertical-renewal-party of the monopolist to a competitive civil society. It is better to abandon the monopoly itself - than to wait until it will be done by voters. Of course, on this path there is a chance of a collapse (give a finger - they will bite off your hand) - but it is less, the expanding political class in it is not interested, he is ready to create drawings and counterweights. “Legal competitors -partners” of EP, of course, prefer to get their piece of cake without great upheavals - than to strive to overturn the table.

If the course “Everything or nothing” is still being implemented, as it was before December 4, that is, a chance to get - nothing! And at the last moment, if this chance (and even multiplied by not quite adequate fear) suddenly jumps out before his eyes, like an elk in front of a jeep on a narrow road - you can make such a cool turn that you will turn over ...

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All these spotlights have now forever become part of the failed story. In this capacity - one of the countless missed options - they are curious. And historians and politicians.

If further development will still tax on a smooth curve, then we can assume that similar plans are realized - albeit other people, at another time, under other circumstances. So, evolution will still find a hole. Different ideas, freely or involuntarily imitating each other, worked like marathoners, and the final rod, as always “fell by accident”. And “draft plans” will be removed (in the dialectical sense) “final”, implemented. This is a normal path of trial and error.

If development goes through a catastrophic, explosive scenario, then historians will again and again go “along a thread of time up” to understand where and why it broke off. Maybe one of the gap points arose here ...