But not horror-horror-horror...

On February 20, in Brussels, EU finance ministers are to decide the fate of a €130 billion bailout package for Greece. The first attempt of this kind, made on February 15, failed: Athens did not convince Brussels of its readiness to comply with the conditions for providing assistance after the April parliamentary elections. The conditions are, first of all, raising taxes, reducing budget expenditures, the number of employees and salaries in the public sector. For a good half of February, Greece was literally in flames of mass protests. So whether the required guarantees appeared in Athens' portfolio is another question.

The economic problems of the country, where, as they once said, "everything is there," today is indeed in abundance. The budget deficit in 2011 amounted to about 10% of GDP, and the accumulated public debt exceeded the bar of 160% of GDP. All the hope of Athens is in international organizations. But the fulfillment of the above conditions by the IMF and the EU is driving the economy into recession more and more, sharply increases the unemployment rate and, most importantly, “infringes on the national pride of the Greeks,” as the leader of one of the political parties that is part of the government said. At the same time, no one can be sure that the medicine prescribed by the EU will turn out to be miraculous. After all, the key problem of Greece is that the country's economy is not able to produce goods that are competitive on the foreign market. This means that it cannot ensure rapid growth - the only way out of the debt crisis. Since the aid package under discussion is not a panacea, voices are increasingly heard not only about the possibility of a Greek default - if the country does not receive the desired loan and fails to repay a lump sum tranche of debt in the amount of about € 15 billion in mid-March - but also about the inevitable exit of Greece from the eurozone.

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The scenario that seems to everyone the most nightmarish - leaving the eurozone - in fact, could make Greece much more competitive and attractive

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And other countries will undoubtedly feel the consequences of such events: the financial markets will shudder and freeze, as they did in the fall of 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Governments will once again have to keep the banks in their countries afloat, further burdening the budgets with debt. , which seemed to have been forgotten after the crisis will remember the phrase “margin call ” Many investors . and start a massive sale of assets. International trade will contract and the world economy will slow down sharply.

However, do not panic. This state will not last very long: a couple of months - and financial life will gradually begin to normalize. After the inevitable massive restructuring of the external debt of the banking and corporate sectors, the Greek economy will be able to feel much better. Imported goods will become expensive, and the population will buy them noticeably less. This will give local companies a chance to increase production - their products will be cheaper. Greek hotels and restaurants will also become cheaper than their competitors from Italy, Spain and Portugal. This means that economical tourists will choose Hellas for their holidays, especially since traditional Greek goods will also become relatively cheaper for them.

Greece is in the deepest crisis, which is increasingly shaking the unified European building that has been created for many decades. But it's like a joke - "horror, but not horror-horror-horror" ... The scenario that seems to everyone the most nightmarish - leaving the eurozone - in fact, can make Greece much more competitive in foreign markets and attractive to tourists, including numerous Russian. So, it’s clearly not worth tearing your hair on your head about the difficult fate of Greece.