Oreshkin vs Guriev

How will the situation develop after March 4? The Internet and the media are discussing three scenario options. Inertial: everything will be as it was. Reformed: Putin, realizing that society has changed after December 4, will go to political and economic reforms. Terrible: “Collective Putin” ate pluralism and twist the nuts. Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin and economist, rector of the Russian Economic School Sergey Guriev, a supporter of what script is each of you, argued about the political future in the editorial office ? Dmitry Oreshkin: I am between inertial and creepy.

Sergey Guriev: I am between inertial and reformist, closer to the reformist.

Bad story Oreshkin: my logic is like that. There is already so much “good” that the authorities cannot be released from the hands. Almost everyone above has a very serious incentive, so as not to lower the situation from the leash. In particular, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has it. He watches what happened to people who released the situation out of control, whether it is Fuhimory (sits) or Musharraf (in exile), and he does not like it. Moreover, the matter does not concern Vladimir Vladimirovich personally - he can just be agreed with him, and he is under the law of guarantees. But there is a whole large team of people who are very much invested in this corporation that runs Russia, and if it collapses, then it becomes painfully painful. I mean rowers on galleys, so to speak. There, honey is so much smeared that they cannot get up without damaging the vital organs. The second reason is psychological, personal. They are boys, they do not want to show weakness. Joking jokes, but "whoever offends us will not live for three days." The third reason is purely economic. If they go towards compliance with the laws, an honest counting of votes, then their influence area narrows, and the zone of influence of their competitors expands.

Who are their competitors? Everyone who says something alternative. Because the popularity of power is reduced, and one who says something else begins to attract attention and intercepts the initiative, including in the economic sense. And Putin's people are closed to power as an economic tool too. They are not seriously interested in what is called an investment climate if oil costs $ 120. Well, $ 17 billion in January left

* * According to the deputy minister of economic development of the Russian Federation Andrei Klepach. or $ 11 billion

* According to the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Alexei Ulyukaev. - It's OK. But if they take the pipe with the authorities, then this is serious for them. And finally, an ideological moment. They understand the country as what needs to be controlled, what needs to be kept under control and that they are trying to take away the “orange plague”, the State Department and all the others. They feel that since people want to live richer, more freer, independent, they begin to go away from the militaristic rhetoric. And Russia from a unique besieged camp turns into some ordinary France or Germany, a completely uninteresting country that has lost its civilizational identity, which Kurginyan and some more like to talk about. This cannot be allowed, which means that it is necessary to stop the expansion of freedoms in the media, tidy up the Internet, it is necessary to give the teeth the “orange plague” in the square. In general, put things in order, otherwise the mechanism that they so long and diligently built, which is called the “vertical”, will collapse.

Good History of the Guries: Why am I an optimist? Previously, society believed that our choice is between Putin and the pogrom, that Putin and the vertical of power are the smallest evil. It turned out that the opposition, it turns out, did not want to smash anything. And it goes out against the street to smash something. This is great news. The second great news is that the opposition is not only peaceful - it requires reasonable things: honest elections, transparency, accountability, dismissal of poorly proven officials, requires release political prisoners - all these are reasonable requirements. The third good news - the government does not shoot at the opposition ... bye. And does not turn off the Internet. For me, this is a big surprise, to be honest. Because correctly Dmitry said: they lose power. Last year, he showed that if you start shooting, then it can end like that of Gaddafi or Mubarak. And if you calmly discuss this in parliament, then like Berlusconi. When choosing between the options, Berlusconi and Gaddafi, I think, will prefer to choose Berlusconi.

Another reason for optimism: a normal, reasonable protest movement began before the money ended in the country, which would have to increase utility bills, taxes, etc. It turned out that even when there is money, many people find their free time to go to a rally, they want to know where their taxes go, and, generally speaking, they want to live with dignity so that they are not ashamed of children. It also turned out that the Internet as a means of mobilizing society works. Recent events in the Middle East showed that Facebook, YouTube and Twitter play a key role in mobilizing people, and in Russia too. Despite the fact that the authorities use the Internet to throw incriminating evidence and slander opposition (hacking e-mail officials showed this), in general, mobilization through Facebook works very well. In your magazine, Boris Akunin said that he was thinking - he is one so protester. It is for this that censorship is needed: you turn on the TV - they say that everyone likes everything, and if you go to the square, you will be one. And if Facebook has registered 20 thousand for a rally, you understand that you are not alone and you will not be beaten. And this has changed irreversibly. Therefore, I think that the script will be as follows. In these elections, unfortunately, there will be manipulations. But if there are a lot of them, then all of them will be documented, including using webcams. Observers will celebrate the facts of disconnecting webcams, broken webcams, etc. And the level of indignation will grow. At the same time, in the second round, Putin probably has good chances to win. But if he wins in the first round, this will be seriously doubtful: if you can win in the first round, why do you need all these violations? It will be very difficult for Putin to explain that he tried to make the elections honest, but he did not succeed. What will happen next? It seems to me that the protests will continue, and Putin will announce early parliamentary elections. Instead of protesting about the elections that have passed, the opposition will discuss which parties will be registered, what are their agenda, what ideas and leaders. The new Duma will probably be much more opposition than today's. And there will be people who want to investigate violations committed in the presidential election. And it turns out that there are enough of them to question the result of the presidential election and hold new ones. Putin will still be able to win on them. Or maybe not. But there you will definitely have to enter the debate, and they will definitely be much more honest. What next? At some point, Putin will lose the election, and here I agree with Dmitry: we do not know how this power will change, how Putin will retire. I am sure that the next president guarantees personal protection to Putin, give a generous pension, all guarantees, but they will not apply to corrupt officials, businessmen and so on. Because the next president will come under the flag of the fight against corruption. And he will not be able to say: I forgave Putin, and also forgave 100 corrupt officials. How this process goes, we do not know.

With your optimistic scenario - when parliamentary elections, when is presidential? A year or two-parliamentary, after another year or two-presidential. It all depends on oil prices, on the errors that the opposition will make and which the authorities will allow.

The temptation of power Dmitry Borisovich, how do you imagine the development of your scenario? I think that all the trends that Sergey noted from the new quality of civil society to the role of the Internet really exist. All this will work someday. But on the way to this bright future, the authorities will have to experience all methods in order to prevent it. We have several examples: Transnistria, Belarus or here is South Ossetia, where the candidate winning the election receives an butt in the head. And it seems to me that they will try to go here Lukashenkovsky or Kokoitov script, because they do not leave the authorities so simply. Plus fears. Indeed, if there are honest elections, anyone can defeat in the Caucasus, including Islamic fundamentalists. Maybe I exaggerate and converge the colors, but in the heads of the people who sit in the Kremlin, this script exists. In their view, democratization is irresponsibility, because they will release the situation from control. People who go to rallies, from their point of view, are stupid Moscow intellectuals who do not understand how everything is really terribly arranged. And when it begins, they will say: guys, sorry, you will have to a little butt in the teeth. In a good way, no offense, which is called, because the power must be preserved. What Sergei is talking about someday, but before that we will be washed with blood.

That is, we have not yet taken the bottom? I think no. Right now there will be a great temptation in power: while the infection has not scattered around the country, all these "hamsters" - in a bag and drown in an ice hole.

Before their eyes, the example of those who shot - the same Gaddafi or Bashar al -Assad. I think Russia is so defending him so now that if he repeats the fate of Gaddafi, it will be a challenge to all Russian society. I am convinced: the elections will be held, and they will immediately forget about Assad.

And yet: why are you so convinced that we will not have a repetition of the Belarusian scenario, when after the presidential election in December 2010 in Minsk people went to the square, they beat, arrested, tried, planted ... Belarus is a country where hidden subsidies from Russia play a very important role. If Putin ceases to subsidize Belarus, then democratization there will occur faster than in Russia. That is why, I think, the Russian authorities will continue to support Belarus. Although all Russian officials to Lukashenko are hostile. But for the case you have to finance such regimes. My script does not cancel this.

You want to say that the option of Belarus here was avoided, because the authorities have money to buy loyalty - freedom in exchange for social benefits? Right. And here is the amazing news. Previously, it seemed to them: the more they pay, the more they vote for them. And now there have been qualitative changes: the more money, the greater the demand for democracy. In this case, I think, the tax reform played an important role, which Putin conducted the same, she led to the fact that many people now pay taxes. And they say: “We pay taxes, and you hire the police who beat us and kill us, we don’t like it.”

The concept has changed a powerful roller on the media. It would seem that the last thing Putin needs now is such scandals. And it seems to me that this is very organic, if we talk about the Soviet system of values ​​that Putin represents. He came with her at the beginning of the zero and was met by applause: restoring order, lifting from his knees and everything else. It implies the presence of an external enemy and isolationism, as well as an internal enemy. This machine works. The fact that a collision is on independent media is a sign that the fluctuations are over. The bets are made on the Soviet model. You are burning in Washington with fire, and we need to restore order here that suits us.

This is due to the fact that the change of persons in the presidential administration occurred - Ivanov changed Naryshkin, and Volodin replaced Surkov? Undoubtedly. The question is what follows. It seems to me that the December events gave a fairly clear signal, that from the point of view of the authorities the country is in the wrong direction. It is necessary to clean, remove the rust until it has grown to critical size. Therefore, Surkova was removed that he was a creative plan, who would deceive everyone, nafintitis, divorce. He played out, the “hamsters” went out to the square. We don’t need this. We need a ram -type forward, who will trample everyone on the way to the enemy’s penalty area and will score such a plus, which you can’t get out of the gate in any way. That is, the coaching concept has changed. Surkov in his head had an option with the second round to make it more beautiful ... Volodin, as I understand it, is no longer this option. Poklonnaya genre, when trade unions, buses working with standardly printed slogans, is such an obvious scoop! And do not give a damn - it is important to show that we are strong, we control the process. We are a ram type. And then the Investigative Committee says that the videos on voting violations were removed and mounted somewhere abroad.

And are placed on American servers ...

They lie brazenly, decisively, and this is a different stylistics: "Yes, time, and you will gobble up and wrap it up." From here - Lebedev to plug, deprive it of money, remove the “new newspaper” before the elections, because they understand: 50% in the first round is not soaked without serious violations. And therefore, you need to prevent a screech.

There is one “but”. Children of the current government for the most part study in Oxfords and Cambridges. Will the generational conflict will arise inside families? No. Children understand that their studies and so on depend on the success of their parents. And parents should control the situation in Russia for success. There is a fundamental contradiction in this, but in the 19th century it was so. Here, the manager breaks the serfs, and there they eat the master ...

The factor of Medvedev Sergey Maratovich, from that, will Putin benefit from the first round or in the second, does your scenario depend? It depends very much.

Does he have the opportunity to win in the first round? He does not have 50%.

If Putin wins in the first round with great violations, this will accelerate early parliamentary and, especially the presidential election. If Putin loses in the first round and honestly wins in the second round, then he becomes a more legitimate president, and the next presidential election may take place in 2018.

Is it possible to imagine a situation in which Putin pushes the first tour, the people go to the streets, and Medvedev, who demonstrates all the time that he does not want to leave, goes on March 5 and says: “The elections have passed with great violations, so I canceled the results.” Is it possible? Theoretically, he has presidential powers, and practically in addition to authority, you also need to have something inside himself to use them ... He does not have a popularity resource, there is no resources of power, financial, organizational, regional, media-he was wiped out of the day.

Apparently, Medvedev and Putin have some kind of agreement. And still agreements were carried out. Moreover, I would put on the fact that it is Medvedev that will become the prime minister. How long he will be - another question.

Vladimir Gelman, a professor at the European University in St. Petersburg, wrote in The New Times that the difference between the Chekists of the late Soviet time and the current time is that the current property has colossal property, which they will not give under any conditions. And if you need to press the nuclear button to protect it, then they will press it. What do you say? Close to the truth ... But the situation is mutual, because the presence of great property also limits. For example, they cannot allow crazy financial policy, because they would not want their money to turn into a dummy. They can’t seriously quarrel with the United States, because the volume of their billions depends on it. That is why they will not press the nuclear button, because then the money will burn, literally. But everything else, if necessary ... The problem, from my point of view, is what: the Soviet Union existed long enough for everyone to understand that it was a dokhlyak. That you can’t live like this ... Even Govorukhin understood it. There was a situation that we called: the forehead rested against the concrete wall. Now this is not. Now they are young, they are 50-60 years old, they have everything great, they are dripping money, they control the process. They know that Europe will bow to the legs, because where is it without Russian gas. And the states need traffic to Afghanistan. They have the feeling that they grabbed God by the beard, and when some kind of orange type comes and says: “Give me a few hairs from this beard, I also want to be held in,” they say to him: “I went away.” The nuclear button will not press, but with a butt in the teeth - for a sweet soul ...

Losses of capitalization of Russian companies only after the December protests - more than $ 75 billion, Gazprom’s undercapitalization of about three times. Why doesn't this stop them? Gazprom belongs to them ... So what? It could cost three times more, but they have enough what is.

I completely agree. This is an important factor, but when you weigh a large pie on one side of the scales, it is small, but yours, it is better to have a large piece in a small pie than no piece in Bolshoi.

Identative signs that will become an indicator for you that your scenario from theory goes into real life? For me, these are early parliamentary elections if they are announced, and how the voices will be calculated on them.

For me, it will accelerate post -embossed protests.

And you do not think that it’s too late, there are no longer wanting to give a butt on their teeth? It was necessary to do this in December, but now no one will risk it? I do not think, because for that they put new security forces to the head of the administration so that it could be restored. If the police do not do this, then the guys from Chechnya will come.

There is such an option, but, it seems to me, the authorities are afraid that ten thousand skinheads will come out of Chechnya for a thousand armed guys from Chechnya, no one wants to see this ...

They will cost the forces of riot police. They will be explained why the protesters are bad, why they need to be neutralized, they will say that they want to ruin their homeland.

You do not admit that the authorities will simply ignore protests? And it will not go either to early elections or on repression: let them go for themselves ... I started with the fact that my position is between an inertial script and terrible. Of course, the authorities would like an inertial scenario ...