Translated material
"We lost to the guards"
Chairman of the Board of Incor Igor Jurgens - The New Times
"We lost." Exactly four years ago, Dmitry Medvedev was elected President of Russia. Then there was a weak hope that the power clan would be pushed away from the power levers. This hope finally collapsed on September 24, 2011, when Medvedev abandoned his constitutional right to be elected for a second term. What happened - The New Times begins a series of interviews about what has happened under the carpet for the past four years. Igor Jurgens, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Modern Development (Incor), who was considered a kind of brain center of the outgoing president, opens this series
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Soon after the inauguration of Medvedev, in June 2008, you said in an interview that “conservative forces” were waged with the young president, which “do not trust the market, do not trust the liberals, and do not trust the West.” You did not name the names then, but meant the security forces, right?
Yes, sure. No one was satisfied with the anti -corruption campaign proclaimed by Medvedev, privatization or its acceleration to the crisis. After the crisis there, the nuances appeared there. Everyone suited the status quo.
Medvedev VS Ivanov
The status quo that has developed under Putin?
Yes. But, it seems, he did not fully arrange Putin himself. In any case, by mid -2007, the bets have not yet been made, the final decision, who - Sergey Borisovich Ivanov or Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev was not. Then I was invited to the Kremlin with a proposal to create an expert platform for four national projects: affordable housing, healthcare, education and rural Russia plus demography.
It is clear, that is, you were invited to organize something like the CSR German Gref, who in 1999 worked for the future President of Putin.
I think the idea was the same. At that moment I left the RSPP. He left in the sense that we had such complex elections: I and Shokhin. The elections that I won with a secret vote, but we were forced to blocked, and won Alexander Nikolaevich, and I reconciled with this. We attracted famous specialists - Maleeva, Zubarevich, the demograph of Vishnevsky and many others. At the same time, Sergei Borisovich had an expert council, headed by Nikita Mikhalkov. Sergei Borisovich had GLONASS and several other projects related to the defense industry. In short, there was a real struggle between Ivanov and Medvedev.
But one person made the decision ...
This is another question. For the population, this was not as noticeable as now, by the way. To both were allocated absolutely timing time on all four television channels, in the media, they allocated people. They drove around Russia. There were no personal clashes, but it was all perceived as primaries. And each of them actually had to prove the king. And at some point, Putin’s head, as I understand it, has such a story: and let's try this dialogue with liberals here and with the West there, which you, Dmitry, will be better than that of Sergei Borisovich due to completely understandable institutional connections. Although this does not mean that Sergey Borisovich is such a shoulder work. He knows all the Beatles by heart. I stood next to him on Red Square when Paul McCartney came: he tapped and sang along the whole concert. But it was simply clear who was behind him, and it was clear who Medvedev was.
Four "and"
Behind Ivanov are security forces. And who is for Medvedev?
We created this coalition. Throughout 2007, we wrote a book that reached the Krasnoyarsk Forum of 2007, which was called the Coalition for the Future, where we proved: liberal intelligentsia, faculty, students, scientists, and a nascent middle class-all these people for Medvedev. It is important to correctly formulate goals. Hence the four “and” ** concept “four and” - institutions, innovations, infrastructure, investment - was proposed by Medvedev in February 2008. This was the corresponding reaction. Even the most intelligent on the other side said: the state of the police, military, the state grew out of the paradigm - Russia was built in the war and the fear of aggression. And you want to change the ties with the intelligentsia and liberals now? It will not be possible. Well, besides, there were also specials that I described to the president in the first or early second year of his presidency. The point is not even about personal, selfish interests - people, in the end, could be changed. This is a military-industrial complex, an oil and gas, agro-industrial complex, defense, that is, an army-these four clusters produce 30–40 GDP percent, and even more employed in them. And this is the stronghold of those forces. The word "modernization" was perceived there as something hated. These four blocks are automatically (and not only in Russia) for the forces of conservatives. Plus, what the Vypers were talking about - "Well, you are a police state created on an antithesis, and not on progress." Here we began to compete with this, fight.
It was evident that there were no special speakers there, but this is a very powerful and strong corporation.
Who exactly?
Well, Sechin, Chemezov, Yakunin is not a matter of last name, the fact is that they represented real power, great, collective interests. Plus, I think that personal, clan interests were also included.
Did they see the threat in Medvedev?
You know, at the level of personalities, again I read somewhere that Kennedy played with his killers in golf. I'm talking about groups of interests. The coalition “for the sake of the future”, our four “and” - we lost to the guards. We just lost to them.
September 2011
When did you understand what you lost? *
I can give you one medical fact: on September 9, 2011, Medvedev made a presidential candidate at the Yaroslavl Political Forum. He said in front of the hall in which there were many world names, which we collected on his tasks. I remember how one very famous Frenchwoman, the president of the French Academy of Sciences, said to me: “If Sarkozy would have made such a speech, I would applaud.” "
Even the smartest of them said: the state of the police, military, the state grew out of the paradigm - Russia was built in the war and fear of aggression. And you want to change the ties with the intelligentsia and liberals now? It will not be possible
“In short, on September 9, the speech of the presidential candidate was uttered by progressives.
Is this not a vision of vision? Not Stockholm Syndrome? Sources claim that by the end of August the issue was already resolved, and Medvedev did not hide this from the near environment.
We prepared the forum, we made a report. I saw how, with what mood Dmitry Anatolyevich spoke. Or he is a genius of reincarnation, which I do not think. And on the 24th (September) I thought I would turn on the TV and hear: “Dear supporters! I support the president of the Russian Federation the candidacy of Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev. And if he instructs me to stay ... "
And they heard the opposite directly ...
This is very characteristic of these 12 years, starting from 2000: no drain on the main issue or on any personnel-to the very end.
What happened these two weeks after Yaroslavl?
As one of my good acquaintances said, this is not a salary.
After September 9, you met with Medvedev?
Normally - no.
Confrontation
In early 2011, despite the fact that spells sounded all the time, that the duumvirs were united, and the split and fermentation occur exclusively at the level of their devices, the contradictions between Putin and Medvedev began to get out of the public. Was it?
The story with Libya was cornerstone, or starting, if you like, in public opinion. What was done behind the scene - I can't tell you.
Why is the story of Libya?
Because one (Putin) was said: “This is a crusade ...” And the other after 24 hours, even less, in a jacket of the commander in chief, against the backdrop of pines and the corresponding slides, but I emphasize that in a jacket of the Supreme Commander -in -Chief in an iron voice, the president said that he made a decision to vote on the UN Security Council ** * One of the insiders claims that this day says that this day that this day is that this day that this day is that this day Medvedev was on the exercises of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - hence the jacket of the commander -in -chief.
** Russia did not vest the SB decision to close the sky over Libya, which allowed the coalition forces to strike at Libya and ultimately led to the fall of the Gaddafi regime .. It was a very bright contrast in two positions: Medvedev publicly adjusted the words of his prime minister. And now almost the heroization of Gaddafi is happening, although we know that this person is standing, in addition to the Boeing, blown up by his direct order, there is much more. What is pronounced (Putin) is not the behavior of a member of the “eight”. Medvedev just realized that, no matter how the Americans relate, but the United States - if not allies, then the country with which we are sitting in the “eight” and in the “twenty” and which is friendly in relation to Russia during the years of the presidency of Barack Obama. Further - speech in Magnitogorsk, when he demanded that high officials leave posts in the board of directors of companies, because it harms competition, and so on. And before that, in November 2010, a trip to the NATO summit. I know this very well, because I was wandered about all these matters, I tried to influence the document that the group of sages, led by Madlen Olbright, was preparing, where it was said once and for all: Russia is not an enemy, Russia is more likely a partner. Rebooting relations with Poland: both of them made their contribution, but a special Medvedev, recognizing crimes in Katyn. Delimitation with Norwegia is a distinction between borders at sea: the problem is very serious, which has been stretching since the 1970s, and very experienced people told me: we will never unleash this knot. It began, if you want, Reset with Europe.
And now on internal matters. A statement on Stalinist repression, preparation by the Human Rights Council under the President of Materials in the Magnitsky case - he gave the team. Examination of the second case of Khodorkovsky. The reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - 200 generals were detained, how much is sitting now - I do not know. Here, many people shuddered in uniform. I can imagine how someone comes to the prime minister and says: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, well, I was very stunned. He listens to whom, what instructions does he give? He will ruin our entire judicial, law enforcement system. And you look, what about the Americans? They are a list for us (a list of Senator Cardin in the Magnitsky case), “simplified” threaten - not only visas, but blocking accounts and freezing avoirs ”... Well, imagine reactions! And then the Dutch begin to consider approximately the same act in parliament. If the Dutch accept it in their parliament, this is an automatic to Schengen, etc. etc. This whole ball could very much contact a very tight knot by September 11th year.
Do you think Medvedev was ready to release Khodorkovsky and Lebedev?
Yes, absolutely. And this can be one of the reasons for the node that is untied between the 9th and 24th, who knows ...
But what about the statement on September 24: "We agreed for a very long time ..."
I don't believe it. I do not believe that Medvedev presented some measurements of public opinion, that one is much more popular than the other. How our measurements are made, firstly, we know. Secondly, which presidential candidate will look at the measurements of another candidate? What, Yeltsin looked at Zyuganov's measurements? No, there was something else here.
What? Compromant?
Don't know. I think just every person has his own pain threshold.
The creation of a united Popular Front was a public challenge to Medvedev?
I think that this was the beginning of the instructions that “Dmitry, you and I are good friends, we agreed a lot, worked wonderful together, but actually I am here too, and I can and will have tools”-I think something like that.
Do you think that Putin was ready for the fact that they both go to the polls?
I do not think that in the character of Vladimir Vladimirovich to go somewhere together. I think that he began to increase his bets, remind the country of himself, to remind how many people “supports me, I really, V.V. Putin, where is my strength. " Here are the four cohorts that I said, plus official trade unions, of which there are almost 15 million people on paper, and so on.
Then it is not clear why Medvedev, who initiated the reconstruction of the “right -hand business”, then, he himself tough, chopped off Prokhorov's hands?
Since I still have to live among these people, I want to tell you that there are such specialists who will arrange such an intrigue, goat and provocation for two clicks in which neither Prokhorov nor Medvedev himself will figure out.
Was there a wiring?
Absolutely ... Everything, point, will not comment on.
Versions
One version is that they sat together, and Putin told Medvedev: “You are young, you are still ahead, I’m almost 60. I’ll go for six years now, and you will be the prime minister, and then you will become the president.”
I think this can be accepted as a working version. The recent article by Andrei Kostin, the head of VTB, in Kommersant ** ** The Kommersant newspaper No. 25/p, February 13, 2012, there, in fact, two main thoughts. First: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, go for six years." From Kostin it was to hear for me like a thunder among a clear sky. And the second. Since it is very close to both to another and in general from the category of people very close: "You will change the surroundings there, with this it is impossible." Roughly speaking, change the cooperative “Lake”-that is around you, Vladimir Vladimirovich. The phrase is not so exactly formulated, but the thought is read precisely. What interferes with this version? In this case, Medvedev needs to be away from the mess that the government will represent.
Correctly I understand you that you think that Medvedev, in order to have a chance to run for the presidency in six years, should you abandon the post of chairman of the government? *
Exactly. Therefore, I said that it is better for him to become a vice president. "
This is a shot position, there is no doubt. Because what is really promised and really indexed, in the sense of pensions, salaries of military personnel, police, and so on, it pulls either a sharp increase in taxes, or - for sequestration of the budget
" There is no such post in the Constitution.
With the current Duma and the Federation Council, all the necessary amendments could be made in two days. Do you not remember how the presidential term (from 4 years to 6) was changed? But the main thing: the position of Prime Minister for Medvedev is a shot. Have you heard Rogozin at the Volunteer Congress? His program of strangulation of the real sector of the economy through taxes and huge military budgets. And the president talks about it ...
President?
Prime Minister, sorry. On such a platform, with such ministers, in order to grow an independent, interesting leader in six years, who should still be elected in a democratic country? Or is it just the next appointment - then you are six years old, then I am again? This, of course, will not pass ... If such a conversation (between Putin and Medvedev) and took place, I consider it naive - from one point of view, and hypocritical - from the other.
Do you think Putin will still appoint Medvedev as prime minister? Someone says-"the kid said, the kid did." Others: Medvedev, if he is appointed prime minister, then for a very short time. Your version?
Rather, the second. Because that which is really promised and really indexed, in the sense of pensions, salaries of military personnel, police and so on, it pulls either a sharp increase in taxes, and, accordingly, the attenuation of all economic instincts. What modernization is there to talk about? Or - the sequestration of the budget due to health care, education, culture, which is also not very. The situation is actually PATOV.
In other words, Putin will appoint Medvedev, hang unpopular measures on him, and then remove it?
You know, when I was an insurer, I wrote a textbook on risk management. The theory says: when in the field of decisions the number of factors that the name does not control, more than which he controls, then such a risk cannot be taken over. Such risks do not take on, say, investment bankers - they simply do not take: "This cannot be calculated, therefore, this cannot be done." The fact that now it is (government management) a terribly risky thing and not calculated by anyone from the inner circle, and they themselves, this is a fact. So, returning to your question, I believe that Medvedev will be the prime minister, and how much it will last, I can’t tell you ... unless, of course, something is radical-critical, because the defensemen and the rest are too dispersed by a serious flywheel. You see, my very nightmare is a repetition of the history of Nicholas II: on the one hand, flirting with the “Union of the Russian People”, from which Witte warned him, and the second, from which Witte also warned him: “Do not go into a large war ...” Now we are in Syria, Iran, after Libya, we take a position that is borderline. А статья (в газете «Московские новости» № 35 от 27 февраля 2012 года), где США и НАТО — это просто враги… Вот там обострение, и с либералами внутри, и с Западом вовне, — вот чего хотелось бы избежать…
Вы хотите сказать, что силовики и Путин готовятся к войне?
Нет… Путин, безусловно, нет: он намного более аккуратный человек… Но кто-то же ему (Путину) посоветовал этот митинг 23-го (февраля)! Он же всегда говорил, что его база — это те, кто за стабильность, за мир и покой, против «оранжевых», которые чего-то хотят там замутить, и вдруг — «умрем же мы за Россию!» В той же эстетике и Добровольческое движение с плакатом «Уберем оранжевую гниду». Вот это нагнетание, оно к чему? И с кем-то надо будет постами за это расплачиваться? Кому-то куски раздавать за лояльность?
И откат будет более тяжелый, чем в 2000-м был. Тогда его окружали Герман Греф, Алексей Кудрин, Михаил Дмитриев, Эльвира Набиуллина. А теперь те, кто будет говорить: «Володь, ты помнишь, кто тебя спас от «оранжевой» угрозы?»
Медведеву позволят сформировать свое правительство?
Я не думаю, что Медведев будет полностью автономен, как был Путин, в подборе своих кадров, не думаю…
Tomorrow
Как, с вашей точки зрения, будет развиваться ситуация после избрания Путина?
Мне кажется как аналитику, сейчас есть две опции. First. Предположим, коллективный Кудрин (я не знаю планов Алексея Леонидовича), но коллективный Кудрин становится премьером и как председатель правительства технократов и профессионалов держит поляну в состоянии макроэкономической стабильности, пресекает поползновения тех людей, которые представляют дикие проекты — настолько дикие, что в сравнении с ними Олимпиада в Сочи просто меркнет. То есть удерживает экономику до того момента, пока не устаканилась политическая ситуация, не объявлены выборы (досрочные, я надеюсь) в парламент, не появляется легитимный парламент. И тогда создается другое правительство и у Путина появляется шанс шесть лет просидеть. И вторая опция, озвученная в «Лужниках»: «Умрем же…» Сирии вставили, в Иране встали на сторону народа против поработителей — это там. А здесь — Навальный в тюрьму, резьбу срывает… Но я надеюсь, что выборы пройдут и необходимости в делении на своих и чужих такой острой не будет.
Как вы объясните, почему Путин так настоятельно хочет избраться именно в первом туре, хотя избрание во втором дало бы ему значительно большую легитимность?
Риски, которые просчитывают его аналитики, они перекрывают для него плюсы.
Кровь может пролиться?
Нет, я не вижу сил, которые на такое способны. Ну, кроме провокаторов…