Invest-Idea: Anti-Putin

On the second day after the elections, Russian indices fell: the MMEVB index lost 4%. The bivalve basket has risen in price by 15 kopecks to 33.75 rubles, and the dollar now costs 29.45 rubles. In the leaders of the decrease in the Surgutneftegaz shares in the market, minus 6.2%, about 4% lose Gazprom, Transneft, NLMK and VTB. Everyone says that a correction has come to the market, hot money is withdrawn by foreign investors. During previous presidential elections, the dynamics of the market was multidirectional. In 2000, in the first two weeks after the electoral event, the MICEX index fell by 9%, in 2004 - grew by 9%, in 2008 - lost 4%. Most of the SLON analysts have tied today's sharp fall primarily with what is happening in foreign markets, and not within the country. In addition, the correction has technically ritted: since December, the market grew continuously and added more than 20%, now investors record profit after the election rally. The role of the trigger for them could play yesterday's warning of the Fitch agency about the possible reduction in the Russian rating in case the tax-budget policy is not tightened.

Yaroslav Lisovolik, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank in Russia, is a key factor in today's fall, not so much domestic political as foreign economic. Both yesterday and today, global markets were not in very good condition. Today there was a large -scale drop in markets in Europe and a drop in oil prices - all this is reflected in the negative dynamics of Russian indices. I think that domestic political events can play a role as a residual risk after the elections, but besides this, it should be borne in mind that a number of investors are guided by the fact that we have long holidays ahead, and many prefer to close positions the day before. There is also such a phenomenon of “Sell under fact”: investors sell assets that they bought before the event. That is, as soon as the elections have passed, a number of investors decided to fix the profit. Thus, the current situation with the fall of markets is explained by several factors: foreign economic, market (associated with the dynamics of the market itself) and domestic political. But I am sure that the latter does not play a key role in today's dynamics. A similar situation with dynamics is expected tomorrow, next week the situation may be straightened. Julia Trucheaeva Chief Economist BNP Paribas - I do not think that the elections have so affected the situation. The elections were on Sunday, yesterday the results were already known, but nothing of the kind on the market was observed. It seems to me that external factors play a large role here. The disadvantage of optimism is the main reason for all falls. Let's say that everything is good, you definitely need good news, a neutral background means for us the loss of interests of investors. The Russian market had a fairly good rally at the beginning of the year, and perhaps it was now too expensive. Ovanes Oganysyan Strategist “ Troika Dialogue ” - the fall of Russian indices immediately after the elections - this is a coincidence. The Russian market is quite speculative and reacts very much to a decrease in risk appetite. This time, a fairly negative reaction of global markets to news about the lower target growth of the Chinese economy and news about the problems of economics in Europe this year. Although after the elections, Russian risks decreased, there are part of investors whom the elections have not reassured. They continue to expect further protests. These investors are not the majority - but their opinion is quite common, and the markets are certainly sensitive to this opinion. Unfortunately, the Russian market is the most sensitive-it will fall more than others if the situation in the global market worsens, and it will be difficult to say why it is specifically falling: because of residual political risks or because of global problems. It will be better than the market that the consumer sector companies will now feel, as the reduction in inflation will increase consumption, and generating companies - due to the fact that the reform of the industry will occur after the election. Worse than the market - the oil sector. The recommendation to keep - by banks and cyclic companies (metallurgy and engineering).