KHODORKOVSKY. MAY. FREEDOM.

In the next two months, Khodorkovsky and Lebedev may be released.

Yes, yes, that’s right... And these events will not be caused by the alignment of the stars and, of course, not by the appearance on the president’s desk of all sorts of lists of political prisoners. Tectonic layers shifted for other reasons unknown to us, but partly understandable. The very fact that the final decision on the release of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev was made at the very top is confirmed by both indirect and frankly direct circumstances. Plus, the time has come for certain events, both legal and social.

To begin with, let's trace some chronology of the events of recent months. So, in March, President Medvedev “suddenly” sent a demand to the Prosecutor General to check the sentences of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev, which could not possibly have been inconsistent with Vladimir Putin. Of course, the consent of the GDP to this step was mandatory for the President. And before that, both Putin and Medvedev unanimously and almost simultaneously spoke out about the optionality of Khodorkovsky’s being behind bars and about the possibility of a pardon. Also, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that, both in the Russian and Western media, the “Putin-Khodorkovsky” opposition, as well as attempts to “appoint” Khodorkovsky as the leader of the protest movement, gradually faded away. I believe that there was probably a request from Khodorkovsky himself and a certain message from the “tandem” - do not fan the fire and the country’s main prisoner will be free. In addition, on March 18, a significant, final event occurred - the pro-state television channel NTV aired the program “Khodorkovsky, gohome” on Sunday prime time, openly insisting on the release of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev and justifying this release. Please note that the demand to release the “Yukosites” sounded like an official declaration, the results of the “people’s” vote were even shown, and the opponents looked not only funny, but also pitiful. You don’t have to be a great analyst to understand that NTV will not air such a global, principled program “for Khodorkovsky” without the approval of the Presidential Administration, and they, of course, will receive the “go-ahead” from both participants in the power “tandem.” That is, “Khodorkovsky, gohome” was broadcast with the consent (or at the request?) of the top officials of the state. What does this mean? This means that Khodorkovsky will indeed soon go home.

Now let's return to other events and circumstances, which are also a continuation (or legal justification) of the above.

Now the release of the “Yukosov sufferers” can only be achieved in two legally sound ways. This is a pardon or parole.

A pardon is possible as one of the first gestures of goodwill after Putin’s accession to the throne, that is, in the month of May. And if you pay attention to the latest statements of the “tandem” about pardoning Khodorkovsky, you will see that one thing is clearly formulated in them: Mikhail Borisovich only needs to write a petition for pardon. There is no longer talk of any admission of guilt. After all, it is clear that after so many years of Khodorkovsky’s confrontation with the system, he will never admit his guilt. That is, you only need to write a non-binding piece of paper addressed to the president. By the way, the cries of those who declare that a pardon legally requires an admission of guilt are outright deception and a desire to continue making money from the Yukos story. Neither in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, nor in Article 179 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (“Procedure for applying for a pardon”), nor in other methodological instructions on the issue of pardoning convicts is there information that when receiving a pardon it is necessary to admit one’s guilt in the crime (or not in the crime). ). That is, it is quite likely that during April, Khodorkovsky will put on the table of the head of the detachment in the Segezha colony a petition with the following content: “To the President of the Russian Federation... From M.B. Khodorkovsky.... Based on the Constitution of the Russian Federation and Article 179 of the Penal Code of the Russian Federation, I ask you to pardon me and release me from further serving my sentence.” That's all. Next is the signature and number. And no admission of guilt. It is quite possible that such a document is already in the Presidential Administration.

Now about parole. Here the situation becomes even more interesting. Platon Lebedev received another right to parole on January 27, 2012 (the last time he was denied was on July 27, 2010. According to the law, you can apply for parole six months after the refusal), but for some reason he still has not applied for parole . Why? The answer lies on the surface. He knows about the displacement of tectonic layers at the very top, clearly sees and understands the situation and is waiting for Khodorkovsky to submit documents at the same time. The fact is that Mikhail Borisovich did not re-apply for parole, since he had two penalties, and this is a real reason for refusing parole. And all cassation and supervisory authorities will confirm this refusal. I know from my own experience. But in December 2011, Khodorkovsky, through the court, canceled one penalty, and he can remove the second, according to the Penal Code of the Russian Federation, in six months, that is, in February 2012, having received the incentive “On the removal of a previously imposed penalty.” That is, now both Khodorkovsky and Lebedev can submit applications to the courts for parole at any time, and will be released within a month. I think that both of them have all the documents for parole ready and, according to the agreements, they will officially submit them immediately after Vladimir Putin’s inauguration and will be released at the end of May. At the same time, all ideological subtleties will be observed - officially Putin will not compromise on any principles; in our country, they say, everything is decided by the court, not the president. The court decided to let him go, so they left. But at the same time, GDP will cease to be a totalitarian horror story for the world community. Look, he even released Khodorkovsky.

However, we should not forget that both Khodorkovsky and Lebedev will remain on a short leash when released on parole. They will not be completely free, but only on parole. That is, any movement “against” them will immediately entail some kind of symbolic violation of the “parole rules” and immediate placement back in the colony. By the way, any administrative arrest or fine (a la Udaltsov and Navalny) will be grounds for Khodorkovsky and Lebedev to cancel their parole, and in the colony they will finish their sentence until the bell rings, but from the very day they were released on parole. So, the opposition will have to completely forget about turning Khodorkovsky into the banner of the “white revolutions,” since this is tantamount to sending him back to the zone. Although, I very much doubt that the opposition is really concerned about Khodorkovsky’s personal fate.

And finally, I want to talk about the good that Mikhail Khodorkovsky brought to the general regime correctional colony of FBU IK-7 of the Karelian Department of the Federal Penitentiary Service. Moreover, absolutely involuntarily, only by the very fact of his arrival in Segezha. I had the opportunity to communicate with convicts who were serving their sentences in Segezha before Khodorkovsky’s arrival and with those who were there after the arrival of the ex-head of Yukos to the G7. Previously, until June 2011, the colony in Segezha was known among all prisons and transfers as one of the most terrible places to serve a sentence. A clearly defined “red” zone, where refuseniks were “broken”, beaten half to death, tortured and “re-educated” by a brutal regime. I personally saw how, at the Murmansk stage in “Stolypin”, a convict cut his veins when he learned that he was being dropped off to further serve his sentence in Segezha. But after Khodorkovsky arrived in the zone, the beatings of convicts stopped, the administration is not angry, fearing such close attention to the colony where the most famous prisoner in Russia is serving his sentence.

Thank you, Mikhail Borisovich! I hope that my assumptions will come true and that in the next two months you will be free. Even if it's on parole.