Banks are waiting for demand for loans

Such dynamics again demonstrates an increase in the volume of free liquidity in the banking system , but in itself, this does not yet lead to a further increase in the lending of the economy, experts say.

In Europe and the USA, commercial banks today keep a significant part of temporarily free funds on their accounts in central banks, explaining this by the still larger posterisis risks with which this money is due to the economy in the form of loans - their growth rate is still minimal, as well as weak real demand for loans.

In this sense, the situation in Russia is different- an increase in the volume of free money that banks transfer to their accounts in the Central Bank, occurs against the background of 20%of the growth of loan volumes in the country , says Maxim Shein, head of the analytical department of the Broker Creditservis investment company. According to him, in the case of Russia, it should be talked, rather, lower than before the crisis, the growth rate of lending, which are explained not only by the now more rigid requirements of banks for borrowers, but also for many of them by interest rates on loans. “Whereas in Western countries we are actually about stagnation of lending- relatively speaking, they are taken little, fearing whether they can return them,” Shein continues. “And in Europe, for example, banks accumulate free liquidity in the central banks, since it turns out, there is nowhere else: they are not afraid to invest in securities- they are afraid to invest in securities- the balances of bank They are overloaded with such tools, many of which are, in fact, also default or close to this. "

Nevertheless, even more noticeable in recent months the reduction in the banking system of Russia relative liquidity deficiency, which has been talked about in the middle of last year, does not lead, in itself, to the same noticeable increase in lending volumes in the country, explains the analyst of VTB Capital Bank, Maxim Prokrosov : “The level of liquidity is influenced, first of all, the cost of money in the short -term prospect of the prospect of money. Week, month, three months ... while the credit process involves the cost of money for a year or more. "

The overall level of economy lending in Russia is much lower than in Western countries, adds Maxim Shein. And in the short term, it would help to stimulate its increase in the overall decrease in inflation expectations: if the increase in prices does not exceed 4-5% per year, the cost of loans will be significantly lower than now, they will become more affordable. “Although a longer growth factor, more fundamental - improvement of the quality of borrowers, as well as the general growth in demand for credit resources. But this is more dependent on institutional transformations, the key of which is the development of competition development in Russia. The more business projects have a chance of loans at low rates, the more quickly it will develop,” says Maxim Shein.

Recently, we see, at least, the suspension of the growth of bets on bank deposits, that is, it can be expected that banks will not focus on the further increase in the cost of their liabilities - the same deposits, first of all, Maxim Substosov predicts. Accordingly, the conditions for their assets (loans) will become more acceptable for borrowers, which should contribute to an increase in lending volumes: "However, in a longer -term perspective, the growth rate of lending is always and primarily associated with the general level of economic activity in the country."