A year of war in Syria: results

March marked a year since the start of the armed confrontation between the Syrian opposition and the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. During this time, according to the UN, the total number of victims of the armed conflict exceeded 8 thousand people. PublicPost learned from orientalists how the opposition's struggle with President Assad will end and whether he will leave his post.

	Grigory Kosach
	Professor at the Center for Contemporary Oriental Studies at the Russian State University for the Humanities

Opposition intensifies

No one will dare to predict when the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime will occur. But the regime will fall sooner or later. There can be no doubt about this. There is a balance of power in Syria today, but it cannot continue indefinitely. Moreover, the opposition is growing stronger. Mainly due to the Syrian Liberation Army, which is currently receiving a sufficient amount of weapons. And speculation that any compromise between both sides can be achieved in Syria in the foreseeable future does not correspond to reality. I think both sides will continue to conflict with each other. But the Syrian opposition will achieve new achievements, especially since it today enjoys significant international and regional support. The February Conference of Friends of the Syrian People in Tunisia, which was attended by representatives of 60 states and international organizations, recognized the Syrian opposition as the vanguard fighting for democracy. And representatives of the highest political establishment of Saudi Arabia and Qatar have long stated that it is necessary to arm the Syrian opposition. And, as far as I can imagine, the channels of these weapons operate quite well today. At the very least, the internal opposition - the Syrian Liberation Army - is launching increasingly sensitive attacks on regime positions, including attacks on military targets and targets of state security agencies.

The military abandons Assad

The Bashar al-Assad regime does not enjoy the support of any significant groups in the ranks of the Syrian army. Today, only the Republican Guard, as well as several elite units of the Syrian army, are on the side of the regime, but in the ranks of the infantry, artillery and other conventional units of this army there is today a very serious ferment. Many are leaving the Syrian army and joining the rebels. According to some reports, the number of young people of conscription age who must go to serve has suddenly decreased by almost 4 times. This means that young people are fleeing to neighboring countries in order not to serve in this army. Moreover, it is usually said that the Syrian regime is supported by representatives of ethno-religious minorities. Yes, indeed, there is an official position of the heads of all Christian denominations that operate in Syria - a position of support for the regime. But at the same time, the Syrian Liberation Army today includes even generals who left the army, and these generals are of Christian origin. Alawite companies are currently operating in the Syrian Liberation Army - these are representatives of that ethno-confessional group of the Syrian population, which is usually considered as the support of the current regime. The Alawite community finds itself fragmented. Very serious unrest occurred until recently in Latakia and Idlib, where Syrian Alawites live. Many leading representatives of the Syrian Alawite community have already publicly dissociated themselves from the regime several times. So the regime's position does not seem very serious. On the contrary, despite the still existing balance of power, they seem to be shaken.

External interference is unlikely

I don’t think that in today’s situation, external interference in the internal affairs of Syria is possible - under whatever flag this interference occurs: international or Arab. There are many reasons for this: the election campaign in the United States and the election campaign in France do not allow either the United States or the leading EU countries to carry out this intervention. This intervention is impossible even under the Arab flag, because there are quite a lot of serious disagreements within the League of Arab States. In the foreseeable future, such an intervention, despite long-standing calls from the Syrian opposition for it to be carried out, is unlikely. The regime—and this is increasingly becoming the case even in Saudi Arabia or Qatar—must fall under the blows of its own Syrian opposition.

The scenario of humanitarian intervention may turn out to be quite acceptable after the fall of the regime - in order to prevent the likely chaos that could ensue in Syria. Of course, reprisals and persecution of supporters of Bashar al-Assad are inevitable. But a regime that destroys entire city blocks must bear responsibility for the aggravation of the situation and for the future tragic scenario.

Syria - a battleground for Iran and the Arabian monarchies

If we talk about the regional aspect, Syria is a battlefield between Iran and the Arabian monarchies, primarily Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And this battle is taking place for regional dominance in the Middle East.

Russia's role

Today, Russia is making every effort possible to at least maintain balance—or perhaps improve the position of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Russia is interested in the current regime. The Russian position always depends on which lobbying group ran up to the highest officials of the state before the others. If in the conditions of Libya, representatives of oil companies and Russian Railways quickly ran up to the highest ranks of the state, then in the case of Syria, it was more likely that representatives of the military-industrial complex ran up to these individuals. In the Russian case, cases are always opened like that little chest - very simply.

	Vladimir Isaev
	Professor at the Center for Arabic Studies Institute of Oriental Studies RAS

Whose hands the army is in, he commands

Now the situation in Syria and around it is very difficult, and making forecasts is an extremely thankless thing. Everything depends on a number of factors: who will support Syria and how, on whose side the army will be, to what extent those who make forays into Syria will be supplied, to what extent the regime will be able to carry out those reforms that have been talked about for a long time, what position the European Union will take, to what extent sanctions against Syria will be real.

In all developing countries, it is not the parties that decide, but the army. In whose hands the army is, he commands. If Saddam Hussein was surrendered by his generals, that means they surrendered him; if in Egypt the generals surrendered Hosni Mubarak, then they surrendered him. In Syria, the army continues to support the ruling regime for the most part. The rebels, although well armed, are an unorganized force. The regular army crushes any guerrilla force with ease. And in Syria they would have been crushed long ago, but this would involve large casualties among civilians, because the rebels prefer to operate in cities. And in cities you cannot fire directly from a tank: for every militant there will be three hundred civilians killed.

I just recently returned from Syria. Homs is not a dead city, it lives, but three blocks were blocked by the army, which was carrying out a cleansing operation. I saw the corpses of Libyan militants and their documents. What are they doing in Syria? The situation there is very ambiguous, and is also accompanied by a very serious media campaign.

The President will leave

I am inclined to believe that the president will leave. I hope it's peaceful. Syria needs to follow the path of negotiations. And the option of a violent overthrow is always possible in any country. What will happen after Bashar al-Assad leaves is a question for those who come to power.

Those regimes through which Iran could exert its influence are falling

In Syria, everything is very intertwined. I talked with the head doctor of the hospital in Homs: he himself is a Christian, his wife is a Muslim, his son converted to Islam and married a Jewish woman. How to divide them? There are enclaves in which the majority of Christians live, the Armenian population is concentrated, and there are Jewish quarters. In addition, Muslims are not united either: there are Sunnis, there are Alawites, there is a certain part of Shiites - and do not forget about the two million Kurds.

Syria is the center of interests of the entire region. Turkey has its own interests. No wonder she is slaughtering the Kurds in Northern Iraq - why not slaughter the Kurds here too? So that the question of creating an independent Kurdish state, which Türkiye is terribly afraid of, is removed once and for all. Iran has its own interests because through Syria it can influence Shiites in the Arab world, primarily in the Gulf area. It is not for nothing that Alawism (and in Syria the Alawites are in power) was recognized by the Iranians as a branch of Shiism - although this is far-fetched. Saudi Arabia also has its own interests in Syria. And now there is clearly a split in this entire region into a center of Shiism led by Tehran and a center of Sunnism led by Riyadh. And those regimes through which Iran could exert its influence are falling. If you remember the war between Iraq and Iran, then Iran was supported by Libya and Syria. Don't these two examples tell you anything? Who was the instigator regarding Libya? It's not France, is it? And great Qatar is together with great Saudi Arabia. Everyone catches their fish in troubled water.

Russia's role

Russia, first of all, is interested in calm in the Middle East. If the Bashar al-Assad regime falls, the same thing will happen as in Libya. And next to Israel, next to restless Egypt, Iran and Türkiye will intervene. And it will be a big Middle East war. Russia does not stand on the side of Syria, Russia condemns what is happening in Syria and calls on the regime to peacefully resolve these issues. She does not support anyone in this case. Russia takes a very clear position: in the Middle East, all problems must be resolved through negotiations and not through military means.