Untimely pride

During the report of the Prime Minister before the State Duma, pride in the growth of industrial production. An analysis of real statistics shows that the joy was somewhat untimely. The growth of industrial production in Russia is fading. If in 2010 the production of industrial products increased by 8%, then in the past 2011 industrial production increased only 4.7%.

Although the decline in production in the crisis of 2009 (- 9.3%) turned out to be completely compensated due to the so-called “restorative growth”, it will most likely fail to maintain the same pace in the near future.

Similar dynamics show the growth rate of cargo transportation: if in 2009 the fall in the cargo turnover amounted to 10%(in relation to 2008), then in 2010 an increase of 7%, but in 2011 - only 3%. That is, the dynamics of cargo turnover fully confirms the dynamics of industrial production:

The fall follows the restoration growth, after which production, without receiving new incentives, begins to stomp at the achieved pre -crisis level.

Thus, judging by the fading dynamics of growth rates, the further prospects for industrial development are not very brilliant. It may well be that already in 2012, the growth rate of Russian industry will fall to zero, and it will be in the strip of more or less long stagnation.

The main reason for such a pessimistic forecast is the existing structure of sales of Russian -made goods. In many commodity positions that have the greatest influence on the economic development of the country, Russian manufacturers are more dependent not on domestic demand, but on the world. Therefore, the state of affairs at Russian enterprises is determined by the global market, the affairs in which, as we see, are far from the best way.

For illustration, we give data on the volume of production and export of the main commodity groups produced by the Russian industry. The first group is the production of fuel and energy minerals and their primary processing products.

From these data it is clear that half of Russian oil and oil products is exported. Also, more than a third of the coal produced and about a quarter - natural gas is exported.

The second product group is ferrous metallurgy products

As can be seen from these data, according to the largest commodity positions of ferrous metallurgy, export reaches a quarter of the entire release.

The third group is non -ferrous metals. There are certain difficulties with this group. The fact is that the official statistics of data on the production of non -ferrous metals in absolute terms do not publish and gives information only about the growth rate (fall) of production. Therefore, the data given by us on the production of non -ferrous metals in absolute terms were obtained by calculation. For their receipt, information was used in the reporting of manufacturers, international magazines of the industry profile, as well as the assessment of experts. In addition, the data on production for 2010-2011 are not fully comparable to data for the previous period of time due to the change in the nomenclature of products used to calculate the growth rate of production, which are given in the official publications of the Federal State Statistics Service.

A sharp reduction in copper export in 2011 is due to the fact that the Government of the Russian Federation introduced an export fee on refined copper, leaving copper products without taxation. As a result, medical plants switched to the production of the simplest final products, the export of which is not taxed with duties, and the data on which are not published by official statistics.

As can be seen from this table, the situation in non -ferrous metallurgy is even worse than in oil production and oil refining. If oil workers depend on exports by 50%, then non -ferrous metallurgy is almost 90%.

The fourth group is the products of logging and cellulose -boom industry.

Naturally, a country with the largest stocks of wood in the world is exported most of the forest output. She uses her natural advantage. However, during periods of world crises, this advantage turns into a great drawback.

The fifth group is tractor building and transport engineering.

The commodity positions of exports given in this table are not characteristic of the Russian economy. Russia is to a greater extent an importer of machinery products than its exporter. Therefore, the presence of exports of machinery products is rather a random event than logical; This, so to speak, is forced to export.

The sixth group - agricultural and food industry products.

Here it is necessary to make a reservation that Russia is just starting its activities as a supplier of food to the world market, and therefore the share of exports in the total volume of production is still insignificant. But, as we can assume, as the population of the globe grows, as well as its income, the demand for food will only increase. Therefore, Russia has every chance to expand its export potential both by increasing the production of food products and by expanding its assortment. For example, in 2011, we became exporters of sugar, although before we were only importers. At the same time, of course, Russia will remain an importer of a large number of positions of food products-at least due to the fact that, according to its natural-climatic conditions, it will not be able to receive all types of these products on its territory.

The seventh group is the products of the main chemistry and mineral fertilizers.

In general, in this industry the situation is exactly the same as in all the others. Built in Soviet times, under the satisfaction of a giant (as it seemed) internal demand, then, after the reform, it was out of work. For example, the need for mineral fertilizers was greatly reduced, since the domestic production of agricultural products also decreased significantly. For manufacturers of mineral fertilizers, only one exit from the crisis position remained - export.

Now, however, in connection with the growth of domestic production of agrarian products, an increase in domestic demand for fertilizers is also possible. But how much he can replace the external is not known.

This, of course, is not a complete list of exported Russian goods. For example, there are, for example, precious and rare earth metals, precious stones, military equipment, equipment for the atomic industry and enriched uranium, spacecraft, etc. But, nevertheless, the above data clearly indicate the very strong dependence of Russian manufacturers on demand formed by the foreign market.

The reasons why the Russian industry focuses on foreign markets (and long ago), and experiences various kinds of vibrations after them, in principle, are well known. The first is a very large gap between the low internal cost of production (and transportation) of certain goods and high prices of external markets. In the Russian market, it is unprofitable to sell at current domestic prices, so most companies try to sell their products to the lion's products in foreign markets.

The second reason is the domestic market, not only is very poor, also not too much. Internal consumers are not able to absorb the entire marketable mass that is produced by Russian enterprises, and therefore, in a sense, they are forced to send their products abroad.

Thus, the current state of the Russian industry is such that it almost completely depends on external demand, which it is not able to influence. Internal demand, which usually serves as a shock absorber in case of the fall of the external, is so small that it cannot significantly change the situation. That's why

Industry so far remains only to stagnate with the world market.

True, Russian industry still has some encouraging prospects. For example, expanding the production of cars at foreign concerns enterprises will automatically lead to an increase in demand for components, fuel, roads and service. And the salary that will be paid to employees of these enterprises will lead to an increase in demand for consumer goods and services.

Another prospect is associated with the expansion of agricultural production. If Russia actually becomes a stable supplier of agricultural products to the foreign market, then the agricultural sector will begin to present additional demand for the services of service industries - agricultural engineering, the production of mineral fertilizers and transport.

But these are long-playing projects, the effect of which will be noticeable in two to three years, and will not affect the indicators of 2012. Therefore, in order to prevent growth rate to fall to zero, the government will most likely begin new programs for stimulating demand, like the exchange of old cars for new ones. Only now not cars will change, but, for example, trucks and agricultural equipment. Maybe this will give the same positive effect - free capacities for the production of trucks, and combines, and tractors are more than enough, and their increased load will certainly keep the general rate of industrial development from a strong fall.