Translated material
Astrakhan Gambit. Compromise or victory?
The stormy political life of recent weeks in Astrakhan and its culmination on April 14
demonstrated to the administration the massive scale of the protest and the high level of solidarity of the protest movement. True, more than 3 thousand people who took to the streets of Astrakhan came as a surprise to both sides.
As a result: video recordings from the polling stations were received and marked for violations, an application was filed in court, Shein watched the video recordings from the polling stations together with Churov at night, and the next rally was scheduled for Saturday, April 21. Everything seems to be moving, but so is time. And time is now on the side of the authorities.
There is no point in waiting for a quick resolution of Oleg Shein’s case in court. The process will
tightened as much as possible. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that a large evidence base is presented to the court, which will have to be considered at numerous court hearings, and on the other hand, the authorities will play for time in the hope of weakening attention to the process or finding a compromise. In any case, the trial will irritate the authorities and show the wrong side of the elections. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the time frame for considering the case will go beyond the physical capabilities of the starving people to eat nothing.
On April 16, Shein flew to Moscow for a night viewing of video recordings from Astrakhan polling stations at the Central Election Commission together with Churov and Mironov. I don’t know who came up with the initiative to organize a night show, but it looks like they decided to finish off Shein with a whole night of watching the Astrakhan lawlessness. What are the legal consequences of this viewing? I think there are none, the case is already in court and this is most likely another imitation of vigorous activity on the part of the Central Election Commission.
And now about some prospects for the situation as a whole.
There are two polar scenarios with the victory of one side or the other in the final: either after all the proceedings everything remains as is - this will be regarded as a victory for the current government, or re-elections will be called and the opposition will celebrate the victory.
This is if the parties follow the principle to the end. But we should not discount possible compromise options. I've outlined the five most obvious ones.
1) Elections without main candidates
No matter how much Mayor Stolyarov swaggers, his resignation may well fall into line with a compromise between the parties. Stolyarov resigns, but the condition for resignation is mutual non-participation in early elections by Shein and Stolyarov. Then we will see interesting combinations of mayoral candidates and the organization of total civil surveillance.
2) Referendum
A compromise option, say, in the event that Shein withdraws his statement from the court, could be a local referendum on the issue of the integrity of the elections, which Oleg Shein has already proposed to hold. So far, only the negative reaction to this proposal by Governor Zhilkin is known. Here it is not entirely clear what wording to choose for the question, since this is not a social survey, but direct democracy. Will the election commission register such a referendum? Not a fact.
3) High post
It is quite possible that attempts by the authorities will continue to find a position for Oleg Shein comparable to the post of mayor of the city, subject to the withdrawal of the claim or the release of the brakes. It has already been reported about the offer of the position of vice-governor, which Shein rejected. The federal government has not yet entered the game, which, if desired, can have its own, more interesting proposals for posts, especially since Oleg Shein does not directly conflict with the feds and recognizes Putin’s results in the presidential elections in the Astrakhan region. And here Sergei Mironov could play the role of a sort of negotiator.
4) State Duma deputy
The combination with the rotation of State Duma deputies from A Just Russia is also interesting, on whose lists Oleg Shein did not qualify in December 2011 due to falsifications. Theoretically, Shein still has the opportunity to enter the Duma if deputies and candidates from the list above him leave. This option still needs to be calculated, but it is difficult to implement.
5) Cancellation of results on some sections
The authorities may take such a step that the court may establish violations in a considerable number of polling stations and even recalculate or cancel the results. The culprits will be reprimanded. It will be officially stated that Shein was right in some way, but the facts confirmed in the Court are still not enough to cancel the election results. According to the authorities, in this way they will save their face and Shein’s face, partially satisfying his application to the court, without ignoring it as a whole.
Time passes, and a long and difficult struggle lies ahead. I am convinced that the trial must be completed to the end. Oleg Shein and his associates must decide whether or not to make certain compromises. They have already done so much for all of us. But according to my feelings, the fight is just beginning and Oleg Vasilyevich will go to victory, and we will help him with this.
On April 21, we will meet in Astrakhan at a rally in defense of fair elections.