The report of the government, presented by Vladimir Putin last Thursday in the Duma, leaves a strong feeling: the current prime minister, who is also the elected president, lives in some kind of his own reality, which has nothing to do with Russian reality.
The Prime Minister devoted the reporting part to the successes in the field of combating the crisis. Here, for example, is how the results of last year are presented, when Russia with a creak reached the pre-crisis level of GDP: “Let me remind you for comparison: the growth of the US economy was 1.7%, in the eurozone - 1.5%, in India - 7.4% , in China - 9.2%, in Russia - 4.3%, and this is the third indicator in the world among major economies. This, of course, is something to be proud of, if we forget the outgoing President Medvedev's groaning about the dependence of the Russian economy on world oil prices; that for comparison, Putin chose countries that do not export, like Russia, but import raw materials; and also that last year the average annual oil price set an absolute record ($110 per barrel), adding about 40% compared to 2010.
Meanwhile, experts have calculated: from 2001 to 2011, Russia received a whopping $1.6 trillion from oil and gas exports. Such money can fill any crisis. In our country, with the current price of oil over $120 per barrel, a budget deficit is expected: 120 billion rubles in 2012. What happens if the price of oil falls sharply? The world seems to have no illusions about the results of the Russian government's fight against the global crisis: international experts are increasingly talking about the need to exclude Russia from the BRICS due to its economic failure.
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Putin, with his Napoleonic plans, has clearly outgrown Russia. He would like to try himself somewhere in India or China with their endless labor resources
“But if you didn’t succeed with the report, maybe the future president’s plans are more realistic? On this occasion, another quote: "The natural solution to the problem of low productivity is the creation of qualitatively new jobs: at least 25 million in the coming years ... Jobs are created by direct investment, primarily by private investment."
The words are good and correct, but qualitatively new jobs require at least workers who will work for them. And with this, Russia has big problems. Putin proudly announced that during his premiership, the number of children in the country increased by 7 million, but he forgot to mention that according to all demographic calculations, the number of Russians of working age will only decrease in the coming years. Who will fill 25 million vacancies? Children not born yesterday...
Well, in order for private direct investments to go into the country against the backdrop of total capital flight (during the four years of Putin's premiership, the net outflow amounted to $339 billion), at least a radical reduction in the bloated and inefficient public sector is necessary. However, there is no talk of this, on the contrary: “The state will directly invest in the development of technologies and support for critical industries. First of all, this is machine tool building, engine building, the production of new materials, pharmaceuticals, aircraft and shipbuilding.”
In general, if we talk about the labor force, then so far Vladimir Putin is ready to offer the Russian economy only those 100 thousand people for whom he promises to reduce the 1.5 million army of federal officials in the next two years. But the lion's share of this audience will go to the well-deserved hard struggle with business and the population of rest.
The program of the elected president proposed to the Duma, if it has anything to do with reality, is by no means Russian. Putin, with his Napoleonic plans, has clearly outgrown Russia. He would have to try himself somewhere in India or China with their endless labor resources. And we would have "on the economy" of some less ambitious realist.