Two years after the oil spill, the company is back in great shape. But he prefers to keep quiet about it

Two years ago, just after the biggest disaster in BP's history, I sat with then-CEO Tony Hayward in a crisis control center in Houston. 11 workers died on the Deepwater Horizon. On 11 screens at the crisis center, oil flowed in seething torrents into the murky depths of the Gulf of Mexico. Hayward was calm, but not too serious - his phrase that he slept peacefully last night caused a storm of indignation around the world after I published it. In the same corporate bunker I also met Robert Dudley, who had managed BP's operations in Asia and the Americas before the leak.

Dudley already had a reputation for remaining calm in difficult situations, having previously led a BP joint venture in Russia. Deepwater Horizon was doing poorly, but it had already faced difficult challenges.

In the four months after the accident, BP shares fell in price by half, and there was talk that the company was going to launch bankruptcy proceedings. The ax fell on Hayward, the only public culprit for what happened. Dudley was called in to save the situation. And it seems he did it.

Last November, the Coast Guard approved BP's plan to switch from cleaning to monitoring. At the same time, the company began drilling its first well after the leak at a depth of 1828 m underwater in the Casquida field. In March, BP finally reached a preliminary settlement with the 100,000 affected fishermen and hoteliers, avoiding months of litigation. It cost $7.8 billion on top of the $14 billion already spent on cleaning up the bay and $8.3 billion in damages. Tourists began returning to the coast; the Boers began to work again at sea.

In terms of its scale, what happened to the company deserves to be considered one of the most incredible comebacks in business history. Since last year, BP has risen 379 places to rank 11th among the world's largest companies in the Forbes 2000 ranking. Primarily due to the emergence of profit.

In 2011, BP posted a profit of $26 billion and promised further growth thanks to high oil prices and new projects. The company resumed exploration with several major contracts in India, Brazil and the Utica Shale in Ohio. Despite the problems in Russia last year and a serious decline in oil and gas production after the leak - 13%, things have begun to improve.

But despite the success, which no manager could keep silent about, neither Dudley, nor the president of the American BP Lamar McKay, nor even the new security chief Mark Bligh - a key figure in restoring trust in the company - agree to an interview.

What is the reason? The answer is simple. It's not in BP's interest to discuss its success, a company spokesman tells me. Once you attract attention, there will be no end to those wanting to punish the company. This is especially true for the US Department of Justice. BP still faces federal Clean Water Act fines ranging from $1,100 to $4,300 a barrel, and some employees could face criminal charges.

But the question of BP leaving the Gulf of Mexico was never raised. Here the company remains the leading producer, producing 261,000 barrels of oil per day. BP promises increased production at the Casquida and Tiber fields (forecast reserves of more than 3 billion barrels). By 2015, BP is going to launch 15 new large projects and predicts a 50% increase in cash flow (based on an oil price of $100).

BP did not abandon exploration activities at all, but on the contrary, went all-in. This year it plans to drill 12 exploration wells, up from 8. In 2011, BP received 55 exploration licenses in 9 countries, more than ever before. This includes a $7 billion venture with Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, as well as projects in Angola, Australia, Brazil, Namibia and even the Gulf of Mexico. BP is overhauling the giant Rumalia field and plans to invest $6 billion in the North Sea.

Dudley's strategy is very different from that followed by Exxon, Shell or Chevron. Competitors are paying more attention to oil sands or liquefied gas. “Exploration is the cheapest way to get to new reserves,” says analyst Oswald Klint of Bernstein Research. But it's risky. “If it works, they will surpass everyone. If not, they will have to play catch-up.”

There are other difficulties too. The deal to sell assets in Argentina worth $7 billion did not take place. Information has emerged that BP lobbied the British Parliament in 2007 to normalize relations with Libya in order to receive an exploration contract worth $900 million. One of the top managers of BP's tanker chartering department is suspected of taking bribes.

But these are all minor things compared to the problems in Russia. At the beginning of 2011, BP announced an agreement with Rosneft: it included an exchange of shares and joint exploration in the Kara Sea. At the time, Dudley said the deal was "fundamental to BP's future." But Alfa Group, a controlling part of the TNK-BP holding (joint with BP), prevented the deal from being concluded, insisting that the British company must implement any projects in Russia with their participation. To end the conflict, BP tried to buy out the part of TNK-BP owned by the oligarchs for $32 billion, but did not agree with the sellers on the price. The parties are mired in arbitration proceedings.

To make matters worse, the deal with Rosneft was immediately concluded by Exxon Mobil. It was good timing for Exxon boss Rex Tillerson. In early 2011, he argued with Dudley, who said the Mokondo leak could have happened to any operator. “I don’t agree that this is an industry-wide problem,” Tillerson said at the time. The comment stung Dudley, who had been publicly pushing for an overhaul of BP's safety culture even before the accident.

Having headed the company, Dudley created a new security department, its director Mark Bly reporting directly to him. Bligh oversees hundreds of specialists who have the power to stop any operation at any time. And they do: the company has recently stopped drilling operations in Trinidad, Egypt and Alaska.

All BP wells are drilled by the same organization, Global Wells. According to the new standards, drilling is carried out only from floating installations equipped with many special devices. Such precautions, if they had existed earlier, would have stopped the explosion at Macondo. And to avoid conflicts within the company, BP now uses the services of independent inspectors to confirm that the protection tools will work.

New security measures can help the company regain its former capitalization. Now, Deutsche Bank analysts suggest, BP is trading at a 29% discount to its net asset value. Investors are buying BP shares based on a valuation of $11 a barrel, versus Royal Dutch Shell's $19 a barrel. The company trades at about five times its earnings, while Shell trades at seven times and Exxon Mobil at ten. To justify its low valuation, JPMorgan analysts say BP will need to pay another $20 billion in fines to bring the total bill for Macondo to $50 billion.

Such fines can only become a reality if the court decides that the cause of the leak was the negligence of BP employees. If serious negligence is found, the feds could impose fines of up to $4,300 per barrel of oil spilled, or $17 billion in total. Otherwise, the maximum fine would be $1,100 per barrel. Dudley naturally believes that it will not be possible to detect negligence.

BP has only $3.5 billion set aside to pay Clean Water Act fines. The company expects it can negotiate leniency for its swift action to clean up the bay and its willingness to set aside $20 billion to pay claims.

Maybe Dudley will be lucky. Although, with rising oil prices, people's need for money and the desire to see BP executives going through the press line, accompanied by police, is growing. “No one was put in prison for the BP explosion in Texas City,” says a Houston lawyer involved in the Deepwater Horizon trial (in 2005, 15 workers died at a BP plant in Texas). “So the government needs to take a closer look at the allegations in this case.”

Dudley wants to avoid criminal proceedings just as he wanted to avoid civil ones. Before the settlement, Dudley said the company was willing to make a deal with the plaintiffs on reasonable terms but was actively preparing for trial.

Over the past two years, BP has spent $159 million on tourism development on the Gulf Coast, business in the area of the accident grew by 50% in 2010-2011, and this year's shrimp catch is higher than before the leak. But Louisiana officials are still finding oil floating in areas that have already been declared clean. Almost all fisheries reopened, but sick dolphins were spotted and oyster beds never recovered.

You can't blame Dudley for trying to sugarcoat the situation. “The beaches are clean, the water is available, the seafood is better than ever,” he said at a February investor presentation. “I would advise all of you to go to the bay.”

$30 billion later: BP's return