Boris Akunin: "Auguration"

“The word “inauguration,” as you know, comes from the word “augur” - this was the name of the Roman priest-foretellers who blessed bosses for a high position. You and I (at least, most of us) did not bless this particular boss at all. Therefore, let they are celebrating their corporate holiday there, and in the meantime, let's make an auguration: let's try to predict how long this reign will last. So: how do you assess the political prospects of Vladimir Putin? How many more years do you think he will stay in the Kremlin? three scenarios: 1. Putin will serve as president for two terms - until 2024; he will again let someone warm the chair; constitution and rule for himself without moving from place to place. 2. Putin will barely remain in his position until 2018, and then leave: either he will not dare to run because of his low rating, or he will lose in the elections. 3. Putin will not be able to last until the end of his current term. Growing discontent, accusations of illegitimacy, and self-destruction of the “vertical” will force him to leave his post prematurely. (The current escalation of police violence certainly increases the likelihood of such an outcome.) Theoretically, a fourth option is possible: Vladimir Putin will serve two terms until 2024 and then retire, but this (I will say as a historian) does not happen. If an autocratic regime has been mothballed for so many years, there are no longer any mechanisms for peaceful transfer of power. The ruler chains himself to the throne until natural death or revolution."