Andrey Levkin: irreversible Kudrin goes to the people

Kommersant reports that A. Kudrin raised the issue of creating a liberal party before the civil initiative committee. " It was added that there was no objections, and Mr. Jurgens said a month ago: " It is obvious that the final point of the route of this committee should be a free democratic party, and its leader is Alexei Kudrin ."

In a word, KGI jointly agreed, but further, alas, they write that the issue was resolved in general, and " the options and principles of party construction itself were not discussed yesterday ." Here, perhaps, a prestige is required, though recent, but it was forgotten. KGI was created on the initiative of Kudrin for unification " on an extra -party basis of professionals working in key areas: economics, science, education, healthcare, cultures E". The purpose of the committee is " Definition and implementation of the best option for the development of the country ." It was in early April.

Composition: Almost all experts of Incras (in which a specific demarche was seen addressed to Mr. Medvedev, since Incor was listed as his intellectual headquarters, but Kudrin came to D. Medvedev how it is known). The committee agreed to consist of N. Belykh, L. Gozman, and Kudrin did not exclude that the committee could take the role of the "shadow government", but the location of this shadow did not specify.

Now Mr. Jurgens has already said that " the committee is simply developing an expert platform, because civilian initiatives go far beyond its borders ," although he did not predict " the pace of transformation of the committee into the party ." It is interesting here, the word "develops" suggests some activities of KGI, but what exactly did it be? But perhaps it may have grown out.

In general, I. Jurgens believes that this fall (October 14 is a single voting day in the regional elections), the Committee may declare the support of certain candidates. To " the next round of regional elections, I would like to have the right to nominate their own candidates ." Well, this is already a party. In this regard, L. Gozman explained that "the license to participate in the elections, that is, the registration certificate of the party, must be had by 2014, which falls out of regional campaigns, including the elections of deputies of the Moscow City Duma." Moral: by this time it is necessary to create if " not one, then a large party that has absorbed numerous political trends ."

Skeptics

As Kommersant aesthetically noted, “ experts who are not part of the Committee of Civil Initiatives, skeptically evaluate the prospects of liberal parties, since their electoral niche, according to the CEO of the International Institute of Political Expertise Yevgeny Mingchenko,“ 10% for all ” . In general, this is also an interesting topic, since 10% is not so bad for party and party life. But - judging by the obvious skepticism of Mingchenko - not in Russia. Say, M. Prokhorov somehow completely did not encourage the third place in the presidential election (which, in general, is cool) and he went somewhere to wait for the future. Although, it would seem, it would be more logical on the contrary? That is - to do something. Conclusion: the general political frame of the Russian Federation, consisting in the fact that the winner receives everything, is not subject to doubts.

Mikhail Vinogradov believes that the party, which Kudrin is going to build, could become successful only " in the case of early Duma elections, the probability of which is small ." At the same time, under any scenario, liberals will be successful only as a " opposition to the ruling regime ." Here, in general, the same military disposition - politics is not a place for interaction, but only for the battle. And the word "mode" already determines everything - of course, "mode" can only be changed that it will become a "regime" itself. Kudrin does not see the prospects here, and this framework tradition itself is not called into question in principle.

There is still a clarification. Vinogradov believes that the Kudrin Party is unlikely to be a “Kremlin project” in case Putin has to carry out liberal reforms. To do this, Kudrin would be enough to collect the “shadow cabinet” in the Committee of Civil Initiatives and wait for the invitation to the White House. In general, another topic flashes here - as if personal, about the relationship between Kudrin and Putin, who was touching about the Minister of Finance after his resignation.

In general, it is somehow curious: experts are extremely skeptical, but on one day and the businessman “writes an article about this in a fortunetelling project, and“ Vedomosti ”even report possible points of its ideology. A small media campaign, practically.

The ideology will be in the next paragraph, and here is another, already a common -systemic objection: “ The main thing for the liberals is not in the leaders and not in the association, but on the agenda,” said “Kommersant” by Gleb Pavlovsky, President of the Foundation for Effective Policy. So, the Liberal Party (not even unified) “will be no less successful than“ United Russia ”, if it becomes not just to smear the liberal Doctrine, and will show the correct understanding of today's crisis and find the right answers . "

Here you should express some stylistic bewilderment: given the current speed of the change of discourse, paradigm, trends, so, etc., only a couple of days will live any agenda.

CSR on dance

As for Vedomosti, it is reported there that " today the CSR will publish the report" Society and Power in the context of the political crisis ", prepared for the Committee of Civil Initiatives Alexei Kudrin ."

There are two points: the words “political crisis” were uttered, and the CSR specifically works by order of Kudrin (although, it would seem, the same now has Inor). To recall: the leadership of the CSR includes the head of Sberbank German Gref, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak and former governor of the Irkutsk region Dmitry Mezentsev. The degree of their participation is difficult to understand, but the President of the CSR Mikhail Dmitriev is part of the KGI.

In the retelling of Vedomosti, everything is serious: “ There is a full-scale political crisis in Russia, it acquired an irreversible character, it is impossible to return to a pre-crisis status quo, it states the CSR. For the authorities, the crisis is expressed in the weakening of the confidence of the population and in the growing threat of loss of political control ”.

It is clarified that even if the elections were pleasantly for the authorities, but " in reality, dissatisfaction with power continues to grow, and not only in the middle class." But the conclusion is already specifically for Kudrin: " The population is against confrontation, but is in the search for new political leaders ." At the same time, it is said that Roizman and Navalny are not suitable for this role (" The program of the first is not clear and the possible connection with the criminals of the second is embarrassed ). The second statement looks like a rather responsible step, despite the word "possible".

Next are four scenarios for the development of the situation according to the CSR. And the representative of Incor E. Gontmaker even simplified the case for the reader, saying that everything could work in turn, so it is easier to remember: “ First inertial, then reactionary with Putin’s doomed attempt to put on protesters, then radical - disorganization of management, chaos, change of regime. And finally, a new team of government will begin belated modernization .” In general, an amazing picture: four horrors one after another, but in the end it is not an apocalypse, but only a belated modernization.

Here, recalling the words of G. Pavlovsky about the “agenda”, you can pay attention to some common worldview of the authors of the document - well, something should be formed for the appearance of the agenda of its authors that determines the attitude to local political reality. Type minsdet or even mines . In a word, a certain scheme of the expert’s consciousness on this topic. In this case, it is easy to see with M.Dmitriev (and he, judging by the state of the SSR website , is now the main speaker). Quote : " I do not take the judgment of the current balance of power: I do not really follow the political intrigue inside the elite, because these processes seem significantly less significant to me compared to the shifts that occur in the mass consciousness. I begin from the fact that the political fate of Russia will now determine precisely the indigenous fracture in the mood of the population and how politicians will be able to establish relations with the population in the process of all these changes ".

Well, firstly, around Kudrin and his project is quite “Elite participants”, but TsSRNE is taken to judge this, but is more inclined to general political journalism (“scripts” - this is it)? Secondly, the main driving force M. Dmitriev declares the population with its consciousness and mood. This, of course, is not only journalistic, but also quite party (consistent with the transformation of Kudrin into a party), but the characters, nevertheless, are quite elitist. How is this party - if, of course, its connection with the Central Criminal Procedure is not situational - will nourish the mass consciousness of the population, not to mention its mood?