This question is relevant for all people who take part in one way or another in the opposition movement, since it is obvious that there is no strategy that can with a high degree of probability lead to victory in the foreseeable future. There are many different hysterical statements, the purpose of which is to “support the morale” of their followers and convince them of the advisability of continuing the struggle.
At the same time, it is quite obvious that there is a path to victory - it’s just that the opposition leaders do not want to take it, because this requires sacrificing their own political ambitions. In order to win, the opposition needs new supporters, well, because existing supporters are not enough. And in order to attract new supporters, you need to offer significant benefits. Well, that is, supporting the opposition should become MORE PROFITABLE than supporting Putin. At the same time, we need to understand which social strata and social classes support Putin and why. Well, except for those, of course, pretentious statements that Putin is supported by “cattle”, “swindlers and thieves”, “anchovies”, etc., because such statements, despite all their attractiveness, unfortunately, provide little insight further actions. The following is obvious: Putin is actively supported by the following classes:
- officials of all types;
- most representatives of business (both large and medium-sized, and even small);
- part of the employees (those who pay the most attention to their short-term class interests);
— pensioners (as the part of society that is most dependent on the authorities and most susceptible to manipulation by the media).
Of course, in order to win over at least one of the above opposition groups, it is necessary to abandon all hostile rhetoric, hostile social and legislative initiatives and, in general, hostile ideology towards any representatives of these groups. Only a positive and constructive position, even if it means “stepping on the throat of one’s own song,” can be beneficial (negativity only pushes them away and divides society).
Of all the above opposition groups, it is easiest to attract representatives of business to their side, well, because it is obvious that this social group supports Putin not due to common class interests, but due to fear of other social groups (or rather, of their desire to redistribute property ). It is on this social group that the opposition needs to focus its attention for the following reasons:
- she is the closest politically, and also wants to strengthen her political influence;
- she is relatively small, compact, socially mobile, decisive, and it will be relatively easy to win her over;
- she is the least demanding from a financial point of view, the new government will not have to give her much, it is enough for her to preserve what she already has;
- this social group, despite its small number, accumulates a significant part of the financial, organizational, intellectual, information resources, it is active and has significant influence in society, and if it began to support the opposition en masse, it could bring significant benefits.
What should be given to businessmen in order for them to support the opposition? To do this, the opposition program must contain the following basic blocks:
1) Guarantees of the inviolability of property rights (including those obtained during privatization). Moreover, these guarantees must be real - that is, such that businessmen could protect their property by force (for example, significantly expand the powers of private security companies and more significantly arm them).
2) Ensuring a significant increase in the influence of business on government and politics (for example, the Federation Council should be elected by an electoral college, which should include only businessmen).
3) Significant reduction of administrative barriers and government regulation of the economy.
4) Significant (at least 2.5 times) reduction in taxes.
5) Creation of an effective judicial system.
In addition, the opposition must decisively distance itself from odious and insane figures like Udaltsov or Limonov.
It is certainly clear that business representatives alone will not be enough; the opposition needs to win over some of the employees - by proposing a program that will also meet the interests of the most progressive part of them, but more on that in the next post.